Hi all,
Champions Day effectively brings the curtain down on the British flat season. Inside today’s preview I look at all six races on the Ascot card and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Champions Day Preview
It’s a great card with four Group 1 contests, a Group 2 which should be a Group 1. Oh, and to conclude the card there’s the ultra-competitive Balmoral Handicap. We have the bonus of seeing a couple of genuine stars in action.
Baaeed has his final start in the Qipco Champion Stakes (4:00) and even better he faces a genuine rival in last year’s Derby winner Adayar.
The other star on show is top mile filly Inspiral in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3:20).
1:25 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m
Trueshan wasn’t at his best and missed a good opportunity when runner-up to Coltrane in the Doncaster Cup last month He’s won this for the last two years and provided the ground has soft in the going description he will make a bold bid for the hat trick. If at his best he wins this.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the stayer contest three times since 2011 and he saddles impressive Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville. This would be a big step in class for the 3-year-old but he’s very much on the upgrade and looks like he can make up into Group stayer. However, he’s plenty short enough. O’Brien also runs Wordsworth. The 4-year-old finished 7 ¼ lengths behind his stablemate last time. However, that was the colt’s first start for 3 months and wasn’t subjected to hard race.
Recent Doncaster St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov should be suited by the step up to 2m but like Waterville he’s plenty short enough in the betting.
2:00 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Creative Force won this 12 months ago. He hasn’t been since finishing a 3 ½ length 4th of 13 to Alcohol Free. He will be fit enough and has a favourite chance.
Kinross completed the hat-trick when winning the Group 1 Prix de la Foret (7f) at Longchamp last time. He was a 4 ½ length 9th of 20 in this race last year. However, he got no sort of run 1f out that day. If he gets soft ground and a strongly run race, he can’t be ruled out dropped back to 6f.
Rohaan made it 4-5 over C&D when winning the Group 3 Bengough Stakes two weeks ago. He should get the race run to suit and a reproduction of his last run would see him go close. However, his sole poor run at the track did come in this race last year.
Art Power was back to his best when comfortably winning a Group 3 at the Curragh last month. He was a 2 ¼ length 4th in this race last year but he had the worst of the draw that day and did well to get as close as he did. He could easily make the breakthrough at Group 1 level.
Quick ground has meant we haven’t seen Brad The Brief since he produced a career best to win the Group 2 Greenland Stakes at the Curragh in May. He looked on an upward curve then and if gets soft ground he doesn’t have much to find with the principles on official ratings.
2:40 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
One of the competitive of the six races. Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn is back for the first time since disappointing in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stake over C&D in July. The first time hood is applied, and she’s got to be respected if back to her best. Frankie Dettori opts for Emily Upjohn ahead of stablemate Mimikyu. However, that doesn’t put me off the 3-year-old who outstayed Eshaada to win the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes (1m 6 ½ f) at Doncaster last month. Her full sister Journey won this in 2016 and Mimikyu is a 3-year-old filly going the right way.
Sweet Lady put in a career best effort when winning the Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last month. The 4-year-old can’t be easily dismissed and is a serious player here.
Eshaada beat Albaflora a short head in last year’s race. The first name likes cut in the ground and although she’s yet to win on her three starts this season is very much in the mix. Albaflora has been very much below her best on two starts this season and although she goes well here has question to prove regarding her present wellbeing.
Sea La Rosa has had a tremendous season already winning four of her five starts including the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu (1m 6f) at Longchamp two weeks ago. No issues with rain softened ground for the 4-year-old nor the drop back to 1m 4f.
At bigger odds. Rosscarbery has solid Group 1 form to her name, and she was travelling as well as anything at 1m 4f when an 8 length 4th of 11 to Kyprios in Irish St Leger last month.
3:20 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1) – 1m
Inspiral is the one to beat here although soft ground would make her slightly vulnerable. The Revenant won the race 2020, was fourth to Baaeed last year. He was set plenty to the Prix Daniel Wildenstein when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 10 to Erevann in the |Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp last time. The softer the ground the better his chance. Checkandchallenge was 1 ½ length behind The Revenant last time but could get into the money at big odds. Modern Games is second best on form but might prefer a sounder surface in this company. Jadoomi is getting better with racing, and he will be tough to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.
4:00 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Baaeed will be a hot favourite to go to stud unbeaten colt. His claims are clear for all to see and its hard to see him getting beat.
Interestingly he’s only 1lb ahead of his nearest market rival Adayar on official ratings. Last year’s Derby winner made a belated seasonal return at Doncaster last month. He won a s 2/7 shot should and at least he proved his wellbeing. He was only 5th of 9 in last year’s race but he had hard race in the Arc just 13-days earlier so he can be forgiven that below par effort.
Bay Bridge had looked set for big season when winning a Sandown Group 3 and finishing runner-up to State Of Rest in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes over C&D at the Royal meeting. However, he was below his best when 3 ¾ lengths 5th of 6 to Vadeni in Eclipse Stakes (9/4 fav) at Sandown last time. He still has potential, and an easier surface can hopefully see him back to his best.
Baaeed’s stablemate My Prospero has a stone to find with Baaeed on official ratings butcomes into the race very much on the upgrade. A neck 3rd of 11 to Coroebus in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes here at the Royal meeting. The 3-year-old proved his stamina for 1m 2f when winning a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud in July and has each way claims.
4:40 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Class 2) – 1m
You can give most of the 20 runners a chance in what is an ultra-competitive handicap. David O’Meara saddled the winner in 2017 & 2019 and the pick of his five runners look to be Blue For You and Orbaan. The first named won the 1m handicap at York’s Ebor meeting and ran better than his better than his 4 ½ lengths 7th of 17 to Escobar in the Challenge Cup (7f) suggests here last time. The return to a mile is a plus and the rain softened ground shouldn’t inconvenience the 4-year-old. Orbaan returned to form this summer winning the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Glorious Goodwood and followed up in 7f classified race here. Was only beaten a short head from 1lb lower at Goodwood last time and is very much in the mix over track that suits.
Migration looked set for a good season when a strong finishing neck 2nd of 17 to Modern Games at Newbury on his seasonal return. An injury has kept him off the track since, but he goes well fresh and he’s well suited to an easy surface. A big player here if the anticipated strong pace materializes.
Symbolize goes well here, likes soft ground and was a 1 ½ length 2nd of 20 in last years race, off today’s mark. Wasn’t well drawn when only 16th of 17 in the Challenge Cup here 14-days ago. The first time cheekpieces are applied and if the 5-year-old reproduces last years effort he won’t be far away.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
2:00 – Art Power – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – Mimikyu – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:20 – The Revenant – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365
4:00 – My Prospero – 1pt each way – 25/1 @ Bet365
4:40 – Migration – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Symbolize – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John