Hi all,
My good run came to an end yesterday, but I thought Asjad ran a cracker to finish third in Ascot’s Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap). If I had known, he would drift out to 22/1 I would have put him up each-way.
All eyes on at Longchamp on Sunday. However, there’s also a decent mixed flat/NH card at Tipperary. The highlight’s being the Group 3 Coolmore US Navy Flag Concorde Stakes (2:25) and two jumps Grade 3’s the highlights of an eight race card.
Inside today’s main piece I have concentrated on the five Group 1’s on the Longchamp card.
This year’s Arc may not be the best quality wise but it’s a fascinating one, given the size of the field. There’s not one horse in the race who doesn’t have question mark next to it. Whether that’s, distance, going, draw or current wellbeing.
Add in five more Group 1’s and you have a good afternoon of sport. ITV are covering four races live on Sunday afternoon but if you have Sky Sports Racing you can watch all the races live on that channel.
Longchamp
The Longchamp card gets underway with a couple of juvenile Group 1’s.
1:15 – Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) – 7f
Tigrais improved on her racecourse debut when winning at Deauville two starts back and stepped up markedly on that success when winning a Group 3 over C&D (good to soft) last month. Very soft ground would be a bit of an unknown for the filly. However, it’s interesting that connections opt to run here rather than against her own sex in the Prix Marcel Boussac.
1:50 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m
The improving Wed won a Group 2 at Deauville last time and comes into the race the pick on form. Has been supplemented for this and although she steps up to a mile for the first time, she was strong at the line at Deauville so should stay. Her biggest rival looks to be Blue Rose Cen who improved to win a C&D Group 3 last month. No doubts about stamina for the daughter of Churchill who is well suited to soft ground.
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m 4f
I looked at the race in Friday’s column and there’s not much more that I need to add to that preview. Luxembourg is open to more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. Despite his wide draw, If there’s any 10/1 around I won’t let Torquator Tasso go unbacked. If Westover settles, I think he’s capable of a big run and at double figure odds makes some appeal. Onesto is respected returned to 1m 4f and handles soft ground. Sealiway, fifth last year will like the ground and the 3-year-old Al Hakeem is open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. Both could repay each-way support at big odds.
3:50 – Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) – 1m 2f
This year’s renewal looks stronger than normal.
French Oaks and Nassau Stakes winner Nashwa is the season’s the best 3-year-old middle distance filly and a deserved favourite on form. La Parisienne looked unlucky when a neck 3rd of 11 in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (1m 4f) here last time. A short neck behind Nashwa in the French Oaks, two starts back and she’s respected. Neither has a great draw though and maybe they are worth taking on.
Above The Curve looks nicely berthed in stall 5. She won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over C&D in May and then returned from a 4 month absence to win the Group 2 Blandford Stakes at the Curragh last time. She’ll need to find more improvement to beat an inform Nashwa. However. it’s likely we haven’t seen the best of the 3-year-old who seems well suited to rain softened ground.
Of the older horses I like the lightly raced 4-year-old My Astra. A 12 length winner of an Ayr Listed race (soft) she showed that performance was no fluke when ½ length 2nd of 9 to La Petite Coco in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh 98-days ago. Looks capable of better and is well suited to rain softened ground.
4:25 – Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) – 5f
You need a low draw here so it will probably be best to concentrate on those in a single digit stall. Coeur De Pierre comes out of stall 8 and ran well when a ¾-length 2nd of 12 in a Group 3 over C&D last month. He goes well on soft ground and is a contender.
Teresa Mendoza has an even better draw in stall 5. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort when neck 2nd of 12 in a Group 3 at Newbury last month. Well suited by a strongly run race which she should get here. If all the cards fall right, I think she can win.
5:00 – Qatar Prix de la Foret Presente par Education Above All (Group 1) – 7f
It’s hard to look far beyond favourite Kinross. He comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at York and Doncaster. He finished 4th in last year’s race and given his present vein of form will be hard to beat. Group 1 winning filly Tenebrism is respected dropped back to what looks her optimum trip.
Of the home team Malavath was a solid enough 3 length 4th of 7 to Saffron Beach in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville last time and was only ½ length behind Tenebrism that day. Gets her favoured soft ground for the first time this season and will be suited by the drop back to 7f.
Fang has a bit to find on official ratings but won a soft ground Group 3 over C&D last month. He needs to find a bit more improvement to trouble the principles, but he’s been progressive this season and was supplemented for the race earlier this week.
Betting Advice:
Longchamp
1:50 – 1pt win – Blue Rose Cen – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:05 – 1pt win – Al Hakeem – 16/1 @ Bet365
3:50 – 1pt win – My Astra – 11/1 @ Coral
4:25 – 1pt win – Teresa Mendoza – 11/1 @ Paddy Power
Cheers
John