Hi all,
A great end to September and considering where we were in the mid-month it was remarkable turnaround.
The start of a new month and what a cracker of weekend. The highlight of the Newmarket card is the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (2.42)
Meanwhile across the Channel it’s the start of Arc weekend with two Group 1s at Longchamp – the 1m6f Prix du Royallieu and the Prix du Cadran over 2m4f. The latter race sees Kyprios take on Quickthorn.
There is Group 3 action from Ascot with the Peroni Nastro Azzurro Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2.25) and the John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (3.00).
Redcar also hosts it most valuable card of the season with the highlight being the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (3.21) which has £85,065 on offer to the winner.
It gets even better quality wise at Longchamp on Sunday. Besides the Arc there are another five Group 1’s on the card. As I mentioned earlier in the week Arc Day is arguably the best day’s racing in Europe. ITV are covering four races live from Longchamp on Sunday.
I have selections from Newmarket and Ascot and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ascot
The weather will have major impact on my betting on Saturday. If the rain arrives at Ascot on Friday and turns the going soft, then I really fancy Ainsdale in the Listed Rous Stakes (1:51). I have been waiting for soft ground or worse for the 5-year-old. Fingers crossed he gets it. If the ground doesn’t ease significantly then we could see a first win for the new King with King’s Lynn.
The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2:25) looks likely to fall into the hands of Hamish. A reproduction of his ¾ length 2nd of 11 to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger would be good enough to win even dropped back to 1m 4f. That said he’s not certain to back it up so quickly. His biggest rival could be recent easy Listed Windsor winner Cresta.
Vadream won last year’s Group 3 Bengough Stakes, yet she can be backed at 16/1 for this year’s race. She was back to something like her best at Newmarket two starts back but ran poorly in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. I think we’ll see better from her back at this venue with rain softened ground ideal for her. Commanche Falls ran a cracker under a top weight when runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup. He deserves his place in Group company for the first time and is more reliable than Vadream. Rohaan is back over a C&D that has seen him produce his two best performances. Third of 12 to Minzaal in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last time the Wokingham winner should get the strong pace he needs albeit most of it seems to be among those drawn high.
The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap)
The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup at Ascot (3:36) is Saturday’s big handicap. Run over 7f there’s a maximum field of 18 for the race so not as a big a field as you sometime expect from a handicap on Ascot’s straight track. I have five of interest although I’m not sure one of them will run.
At the head of the betting is Fresh who has won his last two starts over C&D. He’s only been raised 1lb for his latest success. He will make a bold bid for a hat trick of C&D wins and won’t be inconvenienced by more ease in the ground. A best priced 8/1 with bet365 those odds make plenty of appeal.
Symbolise holds no secrets from the handicapper. The 5-year-old finished one place in front of Fresh when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 16 to the well treated Aldaary in last year’s race. His two best RPR’s have come here on the straight track and the softer the ground the better his chance. He doesn’t have the best of win strike rates, but this is his track and I think he’ll go close.
River Nymph’s best two RPR’s have come over C&D on an easy surface. Won last year’s Victoria Cup over C&D and finished ½ length 3rd of 16 to Fresh last time. He’s only had four starts this year so comes into the race fresher than most and must be respected.
Asjad did me a favour when winning at Doncaster over 6f last time. The soft ground at Doncaster enabled the 4-year-old to return to winning ways. He’s now 4-4 when soft is the going description. Two poor runs here are slight concern, but both those performances came on good to firm ground. He’s worth another try at 7f and can go well if connections run him.
Orbaan has been in tremendous form this summer winning the valuable Gold Mile Handicap at Goodwood and over C&D. The 7-year-old showed he remained in form when a short head 2nd of 11 to I’m A Gambler at Goodwood 35-days ago. Not out of this if he gets a good pace to chase.
Newmarket
As at Newmarket the weather will have an impact on today’s card. The first three races are live on ITV. The card gets underway with a tricky fillies’ only handicap (1:31) run over 1m 2f. It could pay to concentrate on the improving 3-year-olds.
Al Husn won here over a mile last time and she comes into the race fresher than most. The step up to 1m 2f should suit here on pedigree. Another potential improver is Crystal Estrella hasn’t been seen since winning a Goodwood novice in May. It was soft ground at Goodwood and she’s likely been waiting for easier ground. I’ll Be There bids for the hat trick after wins at Goodwood and soft ground at Sandown last month. Open to more improvement and although she’s not certain to stay today’s extra two furlongs her dam did win over 1m 3f.
The £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (2:06) has attracted a field of 29 juveniles. Amichi heads the early betting after wins at Kempton and on the July Course. He looks ton have a good draw in stall 15 and he’s capable of better. Just behind in the betting is Skysail. He looks the sort to do well as a 3-year-old but there was plenty to like about colt’s recent Newbury win. Of those at bigger odds Prairie Falcon appeals. He’s more exposed than the other two but he’s inform and is getting better with racing. Dropped back to 6f he won a Ayr nursery 15-days ago despite being slowly away. The forecast strong pace will suit, William Buick has been booked for the ride and he’s an each-way contender.
Sun Chariot Stakes
The big four Saffron Beach, Homeless Songs, Laureland Prosperous Voyage all run the Sun Chariot Stakes. Although Saffron Beach is the ante post favourite, but I think she might prove weak in the betting and find Homeless Songs challenging her for favouritism at the off. Laurel is the most intriguing of the nine runners. She unbeaten on her two starts and was supplemented for the race early in the week. Looks in the ‘could be anything’ category. Prosperous Voyage tends to be underestimated in these races. She looks a definite for the places, if at her best, and looks the ideal 20 win/80 place bet.
Redcar
Given the amount of prize money on offer I would have expected more than 17 runners for the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (3:21). Then you realise there’s an equally valuable juvenile sales race at Newmarket. I think this year’s renewal could turn out to be a good one.
Cold Case won a big sales at race at the St Leger Festival last time. Trainer Karl Burke thinks the colt could be a Group horse and he’s a worthy enough favourite. Barefoot Angel a winner at Carlisle two starts backlooked much improved when winning the Group 3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr 14-days ago. Another big run should be forthcoming from the filly although soft ground would be an unknown. Washington Heights finished a head 2nd of 19 in a big sales race at York last time. He’s steadily progressive and will be up with the pace from stall 7. Probably needs another career best to win and is another unproven on soft ground. Funny Story a winner on racecourse debut bounce back from a lesser run at Newbury to win at Chelmsford 23-days ago. Her trainer Ralph Beckett has his horses in great from and he won this in 2020 with a filly. Jumbeau isn’t ideally berthed out on wing in stall 17 but is respected on her 3 length 5th of 24 to Little Big Bear in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. A 108-day break shouldn’t be an issue as she won on her racecourse debut. First start at 6f but should stay.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:31 – 1pt win – I’ll Be There – 4/1 – Gen
2:06 – 1pt win – Prairie Falcon – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Skysail – 13/2 @ Coral
2:40 – 1pt win – Prosperous Voyage – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Ascot
1:51 – 1pt win – King’s Lynn – 5/1 @ Bet365
3:36 – 1pt win – Asjad – 16/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Orbaan – 16/1 @ Bet365
I will be having a few selections at Longchamp on Sunday so watch your inboxes on Saturday evening.
Cheers
John