Hi all,
I thought Hewick was coming to win the Kerry National when he made a mistake at the last and unseated his jockey. I’m biased of course but I think he would have won but for that mistake. Still, he was in the process of running a fine race under his big weight. However, all credit to the winner Busselton who found plenty for pressure on the run in. There was a sad postscript to the race as
The Cambridgeshire Meeting gets underway at Newmarket this afternoon. The Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes (3.00) is the feature race of an eight-race card which also includes the Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (3.35).
There’s more action at the Listowel Festival. It’s another flat card with the best race being the Listowel Printing Works (Premier Handicap) (4:20). A word of warning, if you’re having a bet at Listowel 20mm is being forecast to hit the track overnight and on Thursday morning.
Cambridgeshire Meeting – Day 1
It’s a short and hopefully sweet column today. It’s a disappointing card with small fields the order of the day with just one race having more than nine runners. Fortunately, the feature race looks an intriguing contest and I do have one very strong fancy later on the card.
Tattersalls Stakes
Just the four juveniles have been declared for the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes. Charlie Appleby saddled Modern Games to win last year’s race and that one has since gone onto win three Group 1’s. He relies on recent Newbury Listed winner Victory Dance. He does face a couple of formidable rivals in Nostrum and Holloway Boy.
Nostrum looked a potentially smart juvenile when winning at Sandown on his racecourse debut. Holloway Boy won the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and then finished a ½ length 2nd of 9 in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. A small field but it looks a very interesting contest.
Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes
Another small field of just five runners for the 2m Listed contest and unlike the Tattersalls Stakes it looks a very poor race. The bookies make the Mark & Charlie Johnson trained Thunderous the odds on favourite. The 5-year-old tops the official ratings but hasn’t won a race since July 2020. His nearest market rival is Nate The Great which tells you all you need to know about the race. His stablemate Ranch Hand is next in the betting. He’s a previous C&D winner but this will be his first start for 467-days and this could be a prep run for Cesarewitch.
In the 6f fillies’ handicap (2:25) provides today’s selection. Azure Blue a winner on the July course two starts back wasn’t best placed after a slow start and made her effort more to the stands side when a 1 ¼ lengths 4th of 13 at York last time. She remains one to be positive about and trainer Michael Dods won last year’s race with Gale Force Maya. My idea of the best bet on the card.
Listowel
4:20 – Flying Dolphin will be popular after his recent 2-length 3rd of 22 at the Curragh. The step up to 1m 4f should be fine for the 3-year-old and he did win a Gowran Park on rain softened ground in May. Lightly raced he looks a worthy favourite
The Jessica Harrington runners haven’t performed that well here so far this week, but she does have a couple of lively contenders in National Ballet and Autumn Evening. Stable jockey Shane Foley opts for the former. The 4-year-old ran well when 5th of 19 in a Premier Handicap at the Galway Festival two starts back. He looked in need of further than 1m 4f that day and duly posted a seasonal best when upped to 2m 1f at Bellewstown last month. Stayed well that day so will need a good pace and the rain to arrive to ensure a good stamina test. here dropped back to 1m 4f. Autumn Evening, a useful handicap hurdler, looks fairly treated on the best of last season’s turf form on should go well on ground that should suit.
Ruler Legend looked useful when winning at the third attempt at Naas in May. Outclassed when 9th of 12 in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot on his nest start. However, he disappointed when a well beaten 7/2 favourite in Premier Handicap at the Galway Festival. He surely better than he was able to show last time but does need the rain to arrive and plenty of it.
Empyrea has just had the five starts but the filly won a C&D maiden here 12 months ago. The filly shaped well on her handicap debut/seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown in May but was very disappointing at Roscommon later that month. First run since but this has likely been the plan and although she’s yet to race ground worse than good to soft her full sister’s sole success came on soft to heavy so there’s a good chance, she’ll handle a further ease in the ground.
5:30 – Lord Erskine won the 1m 4f handicap on this card in 2017 and returned to winning ways on the flat at Roscommon (1m 4f) in May from 2lb lower. Off the track for 120-days before running over an inadequate 1 ½ f at Galway 16-days ago. Better expected and if the rain arrives, I can see the 9-year-old going close off what is a good mark based on the best of his back form.
Kalaroun would be in the mix if reproducing his neck 2nd of 15 at Chester (1m 4f) in May. Likely didn’t stay 2m 2f when 6th of 15 in the Ulster Cesarewitch last time. Today’s 1m 6f is a more suitable distance for the 4-year-old but his effectiveness on really soft ground would be a bit of an unknown.
Betting Advice:
A quiet day on the punting front. My main selection goes at Newmarket and its a rare 2pt win bet but the possibility of soft ground at Listowel means I also have a couple of selections from the Irish track.
Newmarket
2:25 – 2pt win – Azure Blue – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Listowel
4:20 – 1pt win – National Ballet- 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Empyrea – 14/1 @ Bet365
5:30 – 1pt win – Lord Erskine – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John