Hi all,
For this first time this month there was a hint of autumn in the air in this morning. And so, it should be as Ayr’s Western Meeting gets underway on Thursday afternoon.
The going at Ayr is good to soft, good in places. There’re a few showers being forecast for the area over the next couple of days. However, the picture looks a mainly dry one and it could be good all over come Saturday.
A quiet start to the week on the selections front but I have a few fancies today at Ayr and they can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ayr
The feature race of an eight race card is the Kilkerran Cup (3:00), which is one of the oldest races run at the Scottish track.
The first two races on the card are for 2-year-old’s which I won’t be looking at here. However, the other six races are all competitive handicaps of varying quality.
2:25 – Paul Midgley bids for a hat trick of win in this 5f handicap. He’s got two entered in this year’s race Latin Five & Prospect. My preference is for the latter who would go close if reproducing his ½ length 3rd of 10 over C&D in June. He’s 6lb lower today and can now race off his last winning mark.
3:00 – Virgin Bet Kilkerran Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
The William Haggas trained Al Mubhir is sure to be popular with punters after his 2 ¾ length 2nd of 5 to Savvy Victory on handicap debut at Goodwood 18-days ago. That run cam after a 3-month absence, and this lightly race 3-year-old he could be capable of better. Last years winner Chichester and the 2020 winner First Impression are among the 14 runners. At the weights the latter makes most appeal. He now 4lb lower than when winning this race two years ago. There was plenty to like about his 3 ¾ length 3rd of 15 at York last time. That was his first start for four months and he did well to finish as close as he did from his wide draw in stall 15. This is the 5-year-old’s time of the year, and he should be spot on fitness wise for this.
3:35 – My Little Queens a winner at Wetherby early in the season shaped better than her 2-length 5th of 14 at Newcastle last month suggests. Her hold up style means she always going to be hostage to fortune when it comes to getting a run and that what happened at Newcastle. The forecast strong pace will suit, and trainer Richard Fahey won this 1m 2f handicap in 2019.
4:10 – Dual course winner Cassy O has dropped down to a tempting mark but has started to look regressive since winning at Redcar in June. Professional Widow was back to form when a 3 ¼ length 5th of 14 at Sandown last month. The fitting first time cheekpieces could see her back to winning ways. Sun Hill is one of the least exposed of the ten runners. The 3-year-old returned from a 4 month break with a promising 2 ¾ length 3rd of 9 on handicap debut at Thirsk last month. He can race off the same mark here and should prove to be better than a 59 rated horse.
4:45 – A Boy Named Ivy is on a 13 long losing run but the is now 7lb below his last winning mark and was back on track when a 5 length 4th of 10 to stablemate Diamondonthehill at Redcar last month. A bit of ease in the ground will suit the 4-year-old who won here as 2-year-old and can go close today. Shimmering Sands was back to winning ways at Leicester 28-days ago. Given the 3-year-old came from behind in a steadily run race and didn’t get the best of runs he did well to win a decisively as he did. He’s been raised 5lb for that performance but that could well underestimate him.
5:20 – Global Humor isn’t one for maximum faith or ever take a short price about. However, he’s down to a winnable mark if on a going day. He probably needs a good gallop to chase which he should get here and for all the cards to fall right. Twice a winner here at around 7f in the past the 7-year-old ran one of his better races of the season when 4th of 7 over C&D in July. Tom Marquand has been booked and he’s having his first ride for Jim Goldie
Betting Advice:
Ayr
2:25 – 1pt win – Prospect – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – 1pt win – First Impression – 13/2 @ Bet365
3:35 – 1pt win – My Little Queens – 12/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – 1pt win – Global Humor – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John