Evening all,
What with the Doncaster and the St Leger and the final day of Irish Champions Weekend we have a bonanza of big race action today.
Doncaster has combined the best races from Friday & Saturday’s cards into a nine-race meeting. Due to events the Doncaster St Leger card is the arguably the strongest card at the racecourse in many years.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea we have eight races at the Curragh. ITV will be covering ten races from Doncaster and the Curragh live on Sunday afternoon.
It’s going to be a big day on the selections front and it’s not an exaggeration to say the fortunes of the whole of the month likely depend on a good day. My betting advice can be found at end of the main piece.
Doncaster St Leger Festival
The going at Doncaster was being described as good to soft, soft in places. However, it’s been raining there, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was soft all over by the start of racing.
I looked at several of the races in Friday’s column, so I won’t go through all that again.
The day’s best betting opportunities for me are in the handicaps I don’t think Juan Le Pins has reached his class ceiling, but easy ground would be an unknown. On an easy surface I can see the consistent Able Kane going close and Asjad bouncing back to form in the (1:00).
Coral Portland Handicap (2:10)
There’s no doubt Whenthedealinsdone is in great form. He was an eyecatcher after his comfortable win at Ascot last Saturday. Ground will suit and he should get the strong pace he needs. I’m loath to leave him off my betting shortlist. Makanah goes well on rain softened ground and wouldn’t be winning out of turn. Sunday Sovereign was 2 ¾ lengths behind Makanah at York last time but he didn’t get the best of runs 1f out and ran better than his 11th off 22 suggests. Stablemate Count D’Orsay ran poorly in that York race. However, he was a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 16 in last year’s race and can race off 8lb lower. He’s too well treated to ignore with the ground coming in his favour. Nomadic Way hit form at this time last year and lurks on a good mark. There is a race in him and this intermediate 5 ½ f could prove ideal.
Cazoo St Leger (3:55)
Soft ground means that I want to take on favourite New London in the St Leger (3:55). The supplemented filly Haskoy has yet to run on ground worse than good but her dam won a Listed race on soft so there’s a decent chance she’ll prove effective on it. The more rain the better for Irish challenger French Claim. Although he’s no certainty to stay 1m 6f his Irish Derby third is decent from and he’s got each way claims.
Rest of the card
The first over a mile (4:30) see’s 18 declared. The pace is set to be very strong which will hold up horse Arthur’s Realm who won the Spring Mile over C&D in March, albeit from 10lb lower. Dashing Roger hasn’t beaten arrival on either start tis season. However, he gets his ground and is 3lb below last year’s last winning mark. Brunch is a tough and consistent and has a touch of class. He’s got plenty of weight but likes some ease in the ground and should give his running. Symbolize holds no secrets from the handicapper but has decent form in big field handicaps over 7f/1m and is another who will enjoy the rain softened ground.
The Coral Mallard Handicap (5:05) brings down the curtain on the St Leger Festival. The more rain the better for Inchicore but the likes of Going Gone and the inform Wise Eagle won’t be inconvenienced by underfoot conditions and have strong claims.
Irish Champions Weekend – Curragh
It was forecast to be dry at the Curragh on Saturday but plenty of more rain is forecast for Sunday during racing. The going was being described as yielding and although it should dry out a bit on Saturday with more rain on the horizon it shouldn’t be any quicker.
There’s no less than four Group 1’s on this afternoon’s card. We have the Irish St. Leger (4.10) and the Flying Five Stakes (2.25), and two big juvenile races the Moyglare Stud Stakes (3.00) and the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (3.35).
Before the Group 1’s we also have an interesting Group 2 in the Moyglare ”Jewels” Blandford Stakes (1:50). Group 1 C&D winner La Petite Coco was done for speed when a 2 ¾ lengths 3rd of 7 in a steadily run Yorkshire Oaks last time. Softer ground will suit her better than at York and she’s the one to beat. Her most interesting rival is Above The Curve. We haven’t seen the 3-year-old since she won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp back in May. She acts on soft ground, is open to further progress and Ryan Moore takes the ride rather than any of the three Aidan O’Brien runners in the field.
Flying Five
Nunthorpe winner Highfield Princess is the one to beat on the figures in the Flying Five. However, last year’s winner and runner-up Romantic Proposal and Case Of You cant be dismissed easily on home soil. The strong travelling Mooneista is also in with a chance with Colin Keans staying in the saddle.
Moyglare Stakes
Royal Ascot winner Mediate made it a perfect 4-4 when making all to win the Debutante Stakes over C&D last month. The standout form on the book but the odds-on favourite probably won’t get her own way out in front here and faces much softer ground. Thornbrook was a length behind Mediate last time but is open to further improvement and could be suited by a stamina test.
Shelton and Eternal Silence were second and thirdrespectively in a Group 3 here over a mile last time. Both fillies are going the right way, but this will be the softest ground they have raced on.
Tahiyra, a half-sister to the smart Tarnawa. produced a good turn of foot to quicken clear of her rivals to win a Galway maiden on racecourse debut There should be plenty more to come from her and she could be biggest rival to Mediate.
National Stakes
Whatever the fate of Mediate in the previous race Aidan O’Brien has a good chance with Aesop’s Fables here. The colt made it 2-2 when winning the Group 2 Futurity Stakes over C&D last month. Plenty improvement to come and he has some knee action which suggests rain softened ground could suit him. His main market rival is English challenger Marbaan. The son of Oasis Dream showed improved form to win the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time. If he’s as effective on softer ground, he should give the favourite a race.
Shartash didn’t have the speed to go with Little Big Bear over 6f last time. He will relish today’s extra furlong and given his dams best form came on soft ground he should handled underfoot conditions. He’s not one to dismiss. Nor is Al Riffa he only won a C&D maiden last time but has plenty of scope for more improvement and is potentially a smart prospect. Given his size you would think he’ll like some ease in the ground.
Irish St Leger
Another Aidan O’Brien odds-on favourite in Gold Cup & Goodwood Cup winner Kyprios. It hard to see him not making it 5-5 for the season on form but soft ground might be not what he wants. Hamish has waiting for easy ground since winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May. He goes well off a layoff, so fitness won’t be an issue and he’s only 6lb behind Kyprios on official ratings. Camorra won the Curragh Cup over C&D last time and is another who will like underfoot conditions. Rosscarbery proved her stamina for 1m 6f when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown two starts back and she wasn’t disgraced when a neck 2nd of 7 to Aristia over an inadequate 1m 2f in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last time. More than worth her place in this line-up and given she’s proven on soft ground has each way claims.
The card is bookended by two big field Premier Handicaps.
1:15 – There should be plenty of pace on in this 22 runner “Bold Lad” Sprint Handicap (6f). Big Gossey put in a career best on RPR’s when winning here over 5f last month. He won this last year from 10lb lower, and today’s softer ground would ask a further question of the 5-year-old.
Four time course winner Verhoyen was back to his best when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Roscommon last time. He will help set the pace among those drawn high and will enjoy the ground. An end to end gallop will suit Majestic Colt at 6f and he’s becoming a well-treated horse on his German form and is 5lb lower than when a length 4th of 17 to Mr Wagyu here in the Scurry Handicap in July.
Gulliver was an eyecatcher and hinted that he may be close to coming back to form when a 4 ¼ length 7th of 17 to stablemate Summerghand at York. Yet to win on ten starts in September but has placed four times including when a length 3rd of 24 in the 2019 Ayr Gold Cup. He’s handicapped to win on rain softened ground.
Coumshingaun won over C&D in June on an easy surface. However, she wasn’t in the same form on her hat trick bid when a 6 ½ length 16th of 17 to Mr Wagyu in the Scurry Handicap last time. Needs to bounce back but it’s possible she will.
5:20 – Just the twenty five have been declared for the “Northfields” Handicap. Plenty in with a chance and here’s my shortlist.
Amortentia improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when an unlucky 1 length 4th of 9 over C&D last time. The handicapper has kindly dropped her 1lb and she’s got a big chance, but she is unproven on soft ground.
Laelaps was set plenty to do when an 8 ½ length 4th of 18 at Galway last time. The 4-year-old is at his best on this sort of ground and he should be there or thereabouts.
Good Heavens improved when a neck 2nd of 25 to stablemate Federal in Irish Cambridgeshire last month. The 3-year-old has been raised 3lb for that effort and steps back up trip here but there’s no reason why he won’t go close.
The softer the ground the better for Team Of Firsts. He’s been well out of form on his last three starts but they have come on good ground and a reproduction of his best form would see him in the mix.
Flying Dolphin is one of the least exposed of the field having just had the five career starts. A maiden winner on yielding ground at Gowran Park in May he shaped like a future handicap winner when a 2 ¼ length 5th of 19 to Secret State in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. A very disappointing 2/1 favourite at Leopardstown three weeks later but remain capable of better.
Finans Bay is arguably the best treated horse in the race. He was a ½ length 4th of 23 in last year’s race and can now race off 14lb lower. Not a bad effort last time in the first cheekpieces when an 8 length 4th of 14 at Dundalk last month. He’s to well handicapped to ignore.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
1:00 – 1pt win – Asjad – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:10 – 1pt win – Count D’Orsay – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Sunday Sovereign – 20/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Nomadic Way – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:30 – 1pt win – Symbolize – 11/1 @ Coral
5:05 – 1pt win – Going Gone – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Curragh
1:15 – 1pt win – Gulliver – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Majestic Colt – 33/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places).
4:10 – 1pt each way – Rosscarbery – 16/1 @ Paddy Power.
5:20 – 1pt win – Finans Bay – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Good Heavens – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Team of Firsts – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John