Hi all,
I couldn’t have got day one of the St Leger more wrong if I tried. I thought the ground would easier than it was. Doncaster seemed to have missed most of the rain that fell everywhere else over the last couple of days. It looked good ground with not much soft in it. Looking at the forecast its showery picture with the heaviest due on Thursday.
Day 2 of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. The quality improves today with two Group 2’s the highlights of an eight-race card. First, we have the Cazoo May Hill Stakes (2.35) and then we have the Coral Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes (3.10).
ITV are covering the first five races from Doncaster and the Jump Jockeys Derby (2.15) at Epsom this afternoon. If that’s not enough for you. Then less than two hours later ITV4 will be covering seven races from the Racing League at Southwell on Thursday evening.
I have had a look at the five races from Doncaster that are live on ITV and today’s betting advice is at the end of the main piece.
Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 2
1:25 –British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Carrie Red’ Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6 ½ f
Plenty in with a chance in this nursery handicap run over an intermediate
Misty Blues has the form in the book having finished an excellent 1 ¼ length 2nd of 18 in nursery at York last time. Speriamo finished runner-up to Misty Blues at Pontefract and there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. Her trainer has his runners in excellent form, and she can’t be discounted. Like most of the field neither have run on easy surface.
Bonny Angel was strong at the finish when winning on her nursery debut at Leicester (6f) three weeks ago and she should be suited by today’s slightly longer distance.
Karl Burke has won this twice since 2017 and he saddles Alexa’s Princess and Cathy Come Home. The latter looks the stable pick. A winner at Musselburgh on her racecourse debut, she wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¾ length 8th of 16 to Mediate in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. Didn’t get the best of passages when 9th of 18 at York last time (Misty Blues 2nd). Although she has 3 ¾ lengths to find with Misty Blues on that running, today’s extra ½ furlong will suit and we likely haven’t seen the best of the Burke filly yet.
2:00 – Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 6 ½ f
With £147,540 on offer to the winner this is the most valuable race on today’s card. Cold Case was a 5-length 3rd of 12 to Noble Style in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York. This is a drop-in class and he’s got a favourites chance.
There are plenty of potential improvers among the fifteen runners.
Magical Sunset won at Windsor on her racecourse debut last month and the runner-up as gone in since. She’s capable of better and is clearly highly regarded as she holds Group 1 entries.
Eminency built on the promise of her Windsor racecourse debut when winning at back at the venue 59-days ago. Trainer Clive Cox has trained him for this race since his Windsor win, but he told the Racing Post he’s concerned about a further ease in the ground.
Alpha Capture got off the mark at the second attempt when winning at Carlisle 14-days ago. He’s a speedy sort and interesting that William Haggas fits the first time cheekpieces on this half brother to Acklam Express.
2:35 – Cazoo May Hill Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Inspiral won this race 12 months ago. I don’t think we have an Inspiral among the ten juvenile fillies. However, if there is one its likely to be favourite Dance In The Grass. Unbeaten on both career starts including a decisive success in Sandown Listed race last time. The step up to mile can bring out even more improvement in the daughter of Cracksman. Her main rival looks to be the daughter of Frankel Frankness who is bidding the hat trick after a couple of wins at Chester and is open to further progress. She also seemed to handle good to soft at Chester two starts back.
3:10 – Coral Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 6 ½ f
Like the previous race the favourite looks strong. Eshaada won the Group 1 Fillies & Mares on Champions Day last October. Today’s longer trip ask another question of the filly, but I think her class will see her through. Her stablemate Believe In Love finished one place and 2 ½ lengths behind her stablemate in the Lancashire Oaks last time. Her best has come at 1m 6f so should the favourite not stay she’s the most likely to benefit.
3:45 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Yet another strong favourite in Zainalarab. The colt completed the hat trick when winning at Sandown on his handicap debut last month. He had plenty on hand at the finish that day and a 5lb rise in the weights looks more than fair. Soft ground would be an unknown but apart from that he’s going the right way and the one to beat. Recent eyecatcher Admiral D could end up being a bit of a cliff horse for me. He got to far back at the Thirsk but did best of the held up when a 2¾ length 7th of 13 at Thirsk last time. I was hoping to see him over 6f at Ayr’s Western Meeting, but the recent easing of the ground has persuaded connections to come here first. Should the track get some heavy showers to ease the ground further. That could blunt the favourites turn of foot and give Admiral D a chance of the win. If not he should get into the places.
Verdict:
Not the best of days for those looking for something outside the market leaders. Both Dance In The Grass and Eshaada are solid favourites of the Group 2 races.
The big sales race looks tricky. The favourite Cold Case has the best form but Alpha Capture in the first-time headgear make some appeal.
The two handicaps offer the best opportunities for me. Cathy Come Home is likely capable of better and is the pick in the opening nursery. I’m going to take on the favourite Zainalarab in the 3:45 with Admiral D in the hope there’s some ease in the ground.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
1:25 – 1pt win – Cathy Come Home – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 – 1pt win – Alpha Capture – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:45 – 1pt win – Admiral D – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John