Hi all,
Doncaster’s St Leger Festival gets underway on Wednesday. The Leger Legends Classified Stakes (3.00) will be the highlight for many racegoers on day one of the St Leger Festival. However, the Group 3 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies’ Stakes (3.35) and the Listed Cazoo Scarbrough Stakes (4.10) are the quality contests of a seven-race card on Town Moor.
There’s plenty of rain forecast for the next few days and if it does materialize then we could see some upsets to the form book. I will be keeping a close eye on the weather forecast over the next few days.
Doncaster – St Leger Festival – Day 1
1:50 – Meriel Tufnell Apprentice Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
Is there a tougher mare in training than Sound Of Iona? The 6-year-old is having her 7th race since the start of August and her 4th this month. A winner at Ascot (6f) on Friday and was a ½-length third of 9 there a day later. The three-time course winner, albeit over shorter, drops in class here and should give another good account of herself provided the ground doesn’t get too testing.
Roach Power comes into the race in good form after a breakthrough win at Ripon and close to a personal best back in handicap company over 7f last time. Yet to race on ground worse than good to soft but the dam was at her best on rain softened ground, so he’s respected back sprinting.
The unreliable Stone Of Destiny is another well handicapped horse but he hasn’t won since landing the valuable Portland Handicap over 5 ½ f here in September 2020. He got no sort of run through the final 2f’s when a 1 ½ length 4th of 12 in the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race two starts back. However, he didn’t build on that when a disappointing 4th of 5th at Newmarket last time.
Barbill returned from a 12-month absence and for a new trainer when last of 11 at Kempton last month. Not the most encouraging of runs it must be said. However, he’s run well here on two starts in the past and there’s no doubt he’s well handicapped if he rediscovers his old form.
2:25 – Cambion Electronics Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Charlie Appleby won this with Modern Games last year and has the likely favourite in Modern Dancer. A winner over C&D on his racecourse debut in June. He improved again under a 6lb penalty when 2nd of 5 at Yarmouth last month. Looks on a decent mark on nursery debut but rain softened ground asks another question of the colt.
Hour By Hour seemed to relish soft ground when making a winning nursery debut at Hamilton (6f) 12-days ago. Up 7lb in a deeper race but the ground could be in his favour and he shouldn’t be far away.
Utilis shaped with enough promise on his first two starts to think he can win races of his present mark. There was also plenty to like about his 3-length 6th of 18 in a hot looking York nursery last time. Doing his best work at the finish over 6f the return to 7f looks ideal. He won’t be far away if as effective on easier ground.
Grey’s Monument shaped like he needed a step up to 7f when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 10 in maiden at Ffos Las last time. Being by Territories he shouldn’t have a problem if the ground was to ease further. Trainer Ralph Beckett is 1 winner from 4 runners +6 2 placed with his nursery debutants at the St Leger Festival since 2017.
3:35 – Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
I’m not really looking beyond German challenger Novemba. The 4-year-old gets to race on an easy surface for the first time this season and although she hasn’t been disgraced on her last two starts on quick ground softer ground suits her better. Looking at the pace map she could get an uncontested lead which enhances her chance.
4:10 – Cazoo Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking for Manaccan. A winner of an Ascot Class 2 handicap two starts back. He maintained his improvement when a ½ length 3rd of 9 in Listed company at Newmarket (6f) 12-days ago. The drop back to 5f looks a positive although softer surface would be an unknown.
There are no concerns over soft ground for Mo Celita. The 4-year-old was a big improver last season winning six times, going from selling company to winning a Listed race at Deauville and finishing 4th of 14 in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp. She returned from a 3 month break to finish a respectable 2 ½ lengths behind Manaccan at Newmarket last time. Should bet closer to Manaccan here especially if the rain arrives to ease the ground further.
4:45 – Vertem Nursery Handicap (Class 4) – 1m
Shahbaz was a close-up second at Newcastle two starts back but didn’t really build on that when a 5th of 14 at Chelmsford last time. In his defence he was slowly away, and it wasn’t easy to make ground from the rear that day. Better expected stepped up to a mile on nursery debut.
Grand Central posted a personal best on RPR’s when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 13 at Ffos Las 12-days ago. He should be suited by the step up to a mile on handicap debut and Ryan Moore 4-14 29% + 4.10 when teaming up with trainer Clive Cox is an eyecatching jockey booking.
Impulsive Reaction a Musselburgh maiden winner has continued in good form on two subsequent starts including last time when a 2 length 7th of 11 here on nursery debut last month. Has definite claims if staying a mile and handling easier ground.
5:20 – I Love Julie Parkes Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Mujtaba won all three starts last season and looked set for a successful 4-year-old campaign. Could never land a blow when 3/1 favourite for the Lincoln Handicap and was only marginally better when a 3¼ lengths fourth of 7 stepped up to today’s distance at Chester in May. First start since that Chester run and whilst he must prove he stays 1m 2f at least an easy surface will suit the 4-year-old who should go well.
Just Fine was below his best at the Qatar Goodwood Festival but prior to that had finished a 3 ¼ length 6th of 22 to Anmaat in the John Smith’s Cup at York. Has been dropped 4lb which brings him firmly into contention from a handicapping perspective. The forecast strong pace will suit the 4-year-old who shouldn’t be far away for an inform yard.
No stamina issues for Vulcan. An easy winner at Newcastle in Junehe wasn’t seen to best advantage when a 4 ¼ length 5th of 8 at Chelmsford the following month. Likes to come of a strong pace which he should get here and if he gets a good to soft/soft ground he should be there or thereabouts.
King Triton had looked a handicap winner in waiting when finishing a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at York last August. Hasn’t really fulfilled expectations on three subsequent starts but wasn’t disgraced when third to two race fit rivals on his seasonal return at Ripon in April. Went backwards at Hamilton on his next start but has been given a 122-day break and he should be in the mix if freshened up by his lay off.
Isla Kai is on a decent mark and although he hasn’t added to his four career wins, he’d been running well until a poor performance at the Ebor Festival last time. Gets slow ground for the first time this season and has twice won here over 1m. First start at 1m 2f but there is stamina on the dam side of the pedigree which gives hope he might stay. Capable of going well but this prominent racer will likely face pressure for the lead.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
1:50 – 1pt win – Roach Power – 11/2 @ Bet365
2:25 – 1pt win – Grey’s Monument – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – 1pt win – Mo Celita – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:45 – 1pt win – Grand Central – 7/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – 1pt win – Vulcan – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John