Hi all,
A busy week ends with the conclusion of the Sky Bet Sunday Series at Sandown and you can watch all of the action live on ITV4. All eyes on Evaluation is in line for the £100,000 bonus for winning three races over the Sunday Series in the final race on the card (6:42).
Besides Sandown there’s Group racing at Deauville with the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny (1:33) and the Group 1 the Darley Prix Jean Romanet (2:50) for the fillies & mares are the races of the day across Europe this afternoon. The latter see’s the European debut of multiple Group 1 winning Australian mare Verry Elleegant.
I have had selections at both meetings.
Deauville
Prix Jean Romanet
Verry Elleegant won the 2020 Caulfield Cup and posted a career best on RPR’s when a very impressive winner of last year’s Melbourne Cup. The 7-year-old mare is being prepared for a tilt at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride. Ville De Grace refused to go into the stalls and was withdrawn before the start of the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time. The slightly easier ground looks a plus for the 4-year-old who could still prove up to Group 1 company but her antics before her last intended start are a slight concern. If Verry Elleegant needs the run and Ville De Grace is on a going day she’s got definite claims with Ryan Moore back in the saddle. Aristia ran a career best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Nashwa in Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time and can’t be discounted. The other I like at bigger odds is Rumi who won a Group 2 over C&D on this weekend last year and looks to have been trained for this race.
Sandown
3:42 – The Rod Millman trained Amazonian Dream won this last year and he saddles that one’s full brother Safari Dream who won on his nursery debut over C&D last month. The runner-up (beaten a nose) was trained Mick Channon who has the early bird favourite in Miss Attitude. The filly won a maiden over C&D and followed up on her nursery debut at Newbury 9-days ago. She’s been hiked up 10lb for her latest Newbury win but is very much on the upgrade.
4:12 – A much more competitive race than the first. Lord Riddiford won at Goodwood last time. He’s not certain to back that effort up here but he’s only 3lb higher and shouldn’t be far away. Glamourous Breeze is in great form winning two of her last three starts and finishing runner-up in the other. Travels powerfully on the bridle through her races and must be produced to win as close to home as possible. Jim Goldie won this last year with Be Proud and that one runs again. He was below form at Hamilton (6f) last time but showed he’s on a winnable mark when a neck 2nd of 10 at Ayr in June. Goldie also saddles Primo’s Comet. At his best over 5f he’s been in good form this season winning at Musselburgh two starts back, off 3lb lower, and then finished a 1½ length 4th of 20 at York last month. William Buick has been booked and he’s 2-5 when teaming with the trainer.
5:12 – I think it will probably pay to go with those at front head of the market. Aqwaam had no problem with soft ground when winning at the Galway Festival. That win came over 1m 4f, but I don’t think he will be inconvenienced by the drop back to 1m 2f given the pace is forecast to be a strong one. He’s up 6lb and is out in stall 14 but he’s only had five career starts and could be capable of better. Andaleep bids for the hat trick after wins at Windsor and latterly Beverley. He’s a three times C&D winner in the past, is effective on a sound surface and while he’s 5lb higher today than last time but you couldn’t rule out the hat trick. Pledge Of Honour is another seeking a hat trick after wins over C&D and Doncaster. He’s in the form of his life so a 6lb rise in the weights may be manageable.
5:42 – Spirit Of The Bay won four of her five starts last season and although she’s not won so far in 2022 she’s gone close on a couple of occasions arguably putting a seasonal best when a 2 length 2nd of 12 at York 17-days ago. Has solid claims from a handy low draw in five. Precisely is in the form of her life and bids for the hat trick after wins at Newbury & Ffos Las. Up another 4lb but there was plenty to like about the way she won last time which will hold her in good stead today. Typical Women doesn’t come into the race in the same form as the two other fillies. However, she’s got a better chance than her odds suggest. Her best effort this season came when a 4 ¾ length 2nd of 11 at Haydock two starts back. Well backed returned 7/2 favourite when only 8th of 11 at Chester last time. However, she couldn’t give her running that day as she was struck into so is worth another chance given that market support, she received last time.
6:12 – Ikhtiraaq has made all to win two small field handicaps at Yarmouth and Pontefract. The 3-year-old is going the right way and a 6lb penalty may not prevent the hat trick form being landed. He won’t find it easy to dominate this field as his last two starts but he’s going the right way. Ascending posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Goodwood in June. Only up 4lb for that win and Saffie Osborne takes off 3lb. He looked last time like a horse capable of more progression. However, it was good to soft that day and he missed a recent engagement due to good to firm ground son probably doesn’t want it too quick. Island Bandit bids for the hat trick after wins at Newbury and C&D 17-days ago. Only nudged up 2lb for her latest win but did get her own way out in front which seems unlikely today. Mercurius Power has run well here already this season winning a C&D handicap last month and then finishing a head 2nd of 4 a week later. Not as good at Doncaster last time but better expected back here with William Buick 1-1 on the 4-year-old back in the saddle. Buick has ridden Laguna Veneta to both her wins including at Newmarket last time. She’s a 3-year-old filly going the right way so it’s surprising to see him to not in the saddle again.
6:42 – Evaluation bids for the bonus and he will have been aimed at it since he won at Musselburgh two starts back. He posted a career best in defeat when 3 ¼ length 4th off 11 in the Northumberland Vase last time. He made his effort on the wrong side of the track at Newcastle so his effort can be marked up a bit. Although both Sunday Series wins have come at 2m the drop back to 1m 6f shouldn’t inconvenience him and he’s a stayer on the up. Aggagio has been given a 72-day break after two wins at Goodwood. Both those successes have come on softer ground so quicker ground is an unknown, but he’s respected in his hat trick bid. Sir Rumi is potentially well treated if reproducing his 10 length 6th of 18 to Candleford in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. He was set plenty to do that day and even with a clear run wouldn’t have beaten the winner. However, he probably would have finished in the places and he’s now 7lb lower after a couple of low key efforts. He’s not the most reliable of horses but he’s on a good mark if all the cards fall right. Duke Of Verona won over C&D two starts back but wasn’t seen to best advantage when dropped back to 1m 4f at Kempton last time. The return to 1m 6f and the forecast strong gallop will suit. He’s only 1lb higher than when successful here and is lightly raced enough to think he could yet do better. I don’t think he wants the ground to quick and provided it isn’t, I can see him going well.
Betting Advice:
Sandown
4:12 – 1pt win – Glamourous Breeze – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes or 7/1 @ Coral
5:12 – 1pt win – Aqwaam – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:42 – 1pt win – Aggagio – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook
Deauville
2:50 – 1pt win – Ville De Grace – 13/2 @ William Hill
It’s likely going to be quiet week on the selections front after York, but you never know so watch your inbox for any updates. Alternatively, you can read my thoughts in my Daily Punt column. I will be doing a column Monday to Saturday this week. The first two days I will be looking back at the York Ebor Festival. On Monday you can read my thoughts on the best performances of the week and on Tuesday I will have a few eyecatchers from what was an excellent meeting albeit not a profitable one for me.
Cheers
John