Hi all,
The heavy thunderstorms and rain seemed to have bypassed York. They had 2mm on Monday evening. Writing this on Tuesday afternoon and no rain has arrived so its case of going with horses who go well on a quick surface. If heavy rain does arrive, then as a tipster you just must take it on the chin.
I have had a look at all seven races on the card including the feature race the Group 1 Juddmonte International (3:35). As ever today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
York Ebor Festival – Day 1
A seven race card sees a lovely mix of Group races and big field handicaps starting with opener. The ITV cameras are broadcasting the first five races live as they are throughout the week.
1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5 ½ f
Plenty in with a chance Julie Camacho has Makanah (1) & Look Out Louis (3). The former wouldn’t be winning a handicap like this out of turn, but I don’t like him being out on a wing. Look Out Louis overcame a wide draw to win at Chester last month. It was a career best from the 6-year-old, but he has a 6lb rise in the weights to defy and has yet to show York is his track.
Atlalis Bay (6) has dropped down to a winnable mark and he shaped better than his 2 ½ lengths 8th of 15 to Lord Riddiford at Goodwood suggests. He’s well suited to quick ground and the forecast strong pace will play to his strengths.
Tim Easterby won this last year with Copper Knight and that one runs again but off 9lb higher than 12 months ago and he has a couple of other contenders in Sunday Sovereign (8) & Count D’orsay (20). The former isn’t the most consistent, but he went close behind Illusionist here (5f) in May. Now 1lb below his last winning mark and William Buick is an eyecatching jockey booking (1-4 when riding for the yard). Count D’orsay is another who lacks consistency but is also well handicapped if at his best. The latter I suspect want more ease the the ground.
Zarzyni (18) is fine on quick ground and if the anticipated pace drawn high materialises then he’s got a good chance. The 5-year-old won a valuable 5f at Musselburgh (good to soft) in April and has run well both subsequent starts in a Group 3 at Newmarket and when returning from a 10-week break to finish a 1 ½ length 3rd of 20 to Mountain Peak at Ascot last month. He did best of those who raced down the centre that day and that effort can be slightly marked up.
Dusky Lord (19) looks capable of winning of his present mark and must be respected on his ½-length 2nd of 15 to Lord Riddiford at Goodwood last time. The first time cheekpieces worn last time are replaced by the first-time blinkers.
Swedish Challenger Good Eye (16) outran his massive odds (150/1) when a 2-length 4th of 28 in the Goodwood Stewards Cup (6f) last time. Not sure about the drop back in trip. However, he showed plenty of pace that day. He will help set the pace amongst the drawn high and hold on for the places.
Dakota Gold (21) won this in 2018 and took advantage of falling mark when winning here over 6f (off 4lb lower) in May. He goes well at the track, is trained by Michael Dods so there’s plenty like about the 8-year-old’s chance, but he needs the rain to arrive.
2:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Smart juvenile prospect Nostrum wasn’t in the final declarations for the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (2:25). However, a couple of the ante post market leaders Local Dynasty and Mill Stream do run. The former looked very useful when winning a “Newcomers” maiden at Newmarket 12-days ago. Mill Stream also won racecourse debut at Doncaster before finishing ½ length runner-up to Noble Style (stablemate of Local Dynasty) at Newmarket last month.
Chaldean built on his racecourse debut promise when winning at Newbury last month. He’s looked useful at Newbury and is open to further progress.
Irish challenger Indestructible build on a promising debut when winning at Windsor 23-days ago. He was still about green last time and is capable of better. Given he holds Group 1 entries he’s clearly held in high regard by connections.
Oviedo and Shaquille represent local trainers. The former looked smart when winning at Doncaster on his racecourse debut last month. He found plenty for pressure that day to prevail and that will stand him good stead here. Shaquille also made a winning racecourse debut over C&D last month. He was a bit keen that day so needs to settle better but he’s another open to plenty of further progress and the yard is going well.
3:00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Walk Of Stars and Secret State give Charlie Appleby a strong hand in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (3.00). Secret State, to be ridden by William Buick, looks the pick of the pair. A winner of a Goodwood handicap under a big weight last time
Deauville Legend was head behind Secret State when runner-up to that one in the King George V Stakes (handicap) at Royal Ascot. He’s 4lb worse off today but he’s improved since winning the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy and finishing runner-up to Secret State’s stablemate New London in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
The biggest rival to Secret State looks to be the Aidan O’Brien trained colt Aikhal. The son of Galileo seemed to relish the step up to 1m 2f when an impressive winner of a Group 3 at the Curragh in June. If as expected the step up to 1m 4f suits he’s a big player
3:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f
Baaeed will take on now take on five rivals on his long-waited step up to 1m 2f in the Group 1 Juddmonte International (3.35). Trainer William Haggas also saddles Dubai Honour.
Last year’s impressive winner Mishriff is Baaeed’s main market rival and reproduction of last year’s performance would see him provide a stern test for the short-priced favourite.
There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of pace. The only serious pace angle looks to be High Definition. An aggressive front running ride back down at 1m 2f could see the colt back to his best but he’s not reliable.
You can’t knock Native Trail’s consistency and he was only head behind Mishriff when 3rd of 6 to Vadeni in the Coral Eclipse. He finds plenty pressure, but the Irish 2,000 winner lacks an instant change of gear. He wouldn’t want a tactical race, but York’s long straight should play to his strengths.
Any significant ease in the ground could see Dubai Honour, who isn’t far below Group 1 level outrun his odds.
4:10 – Sky Bet Stayers Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Master Milliner is developing into a high class stayer. He relished the step up to 2m 4f when winning at Goodwood last time. Granted he’s got 5lb increase in the weight to contend with, but he might not have stopped his improvement. He’s a double C&D winner so the track suits but I think he does need good or quicker ground.
Alfred Boucher proved his stamina for 2m when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Chester two starts back and showed he remains in form when a ¾-length 2nd of 11 back at the same venue over an extended 1m 4f last time. He’s been nudged up 2lb, but Buick booked and he’s unexposed over 2m. Although he’s won on soft the 6-year-old is probably better on a sounder surface.
Praiano races like he needs 2m and a stamina test and Hollie Doyle is a good jockey booking for the lightweight. I don’t think he wants quick ground but good to firm should be fine.
Both Frankenstella and Haveyoumissed would prefer more ease in the ground and if they got it would have definite claims.
4:45 – Celebrate ITM’s 200th IRE Voucher Winner Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Cuban Breeze has had thirteen starts this year, but she still managed to post a career best on RPR’s when winning the Fitzdares Sprint Series Final (6f) at Windsor 16-days ago. Has 4lb rise in the weight to contend with but her improvement may not have levelled off just yet. Ryan Moore booked and he’s 6-15 40% +43.08 when teaming up with trainer David Evans. Her long season will catch up with her one day but hopefully not today.
Sandbeck made it 3-4 since joining her present yard when successful at Doncaster last time. She’s now 7lb higher and in a deeper race but is going the right way and should be bang there at the finish.
Pink Crystal is another progressive filly on the up. The 3-year-old bids for the hat trick after wins at Thirsk and latterly Brighton. In much better company here but more than likely capable of winning more races.
Designer a winner at Kempton on her seasonal return she was back to form when a length 6th of 27 in Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Might be better over 6f but she looked well suited to the big field at Ascot and is one for the shortlist from stall 5.
Peggy Sioux was third in the Holyroodhouse Handicap and looked a certain future winner but flopped badly over C&D just 12 days later. That race may have come to quick after her Ascot effort but she has run badly on both her starts at York.
Ey Up It’s Maggie goes well at York and was a 2 ¼ length 5th of 13 in this race last year. Now 4lb lower than 12 months ago and the first time visor replaces the cheekpieces.
International Girl looked better than ever when winning here (6f) last month. Up 7lb in better race. However, she was well on top at the finish last time and so a rise in the weights may not hold her back. The forecast strong pace will suit dropped back to 5f and she could have a handy draw in stall 2. One very much one for the shortlist.
5:20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap – 6f
This could arguably the toughest race on the card with 19 juveniles declared. I can make a strong case for at least 6 of the 19 of the runners and still might not have found the winner.
Mrs U S A is an improving filly who got off the mark at the third attempt when winning at Sandown (5f) last month. First start at 6f but her full brother is a 6f winner and she can improve for the step up in trip. Must have a big chance on her handicap debut with William Buick booked for the ride.
Ramazan looked to have improved plenty for the step into nursery company when winning at Haydock (soft) last month. Up 7lb but going the right way. The runner-up at Haydock has won twice since so the form looks solid enough. Very much respected for trainer Richard Fahey won this in 2012/2015/2016.
Misty Blues won a Pontefract novice two starts back and was a good 2 length 3rd of 7 in a C&D nursery last time. Today’s bigger field and stronger pace should suit and if stall 20 isn’t an inconvenience can go well. Stablemate Braveheart Boy is another to consider but like Misty Blues he has a high draw to contend with. He got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Pontefract novice last month. Had to find plenty for pressure that day to prevail which will hold him in good stead here and he could be capable of better on handicap debut.
Streets Of Gold comes into the race 2-2 having won at Chepstow and Newmarket. There should be more improvement to come from the son of Havana Gold who holds a Group 2 entry. Yard’s horses going well, and he looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut and high on the shortlist from stall 5.
Betting Advice:
York
1:50 – 1pt win – Atalis Bay – 10/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Zarzyni – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt each way – Shaquille – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – 1pt win – Master Milliner – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Praiano – 12/1 @ Bet365
4:45 – 1pt win – Cuban Breeze – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – International Girl -8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John