Hi all,
A high class line-up for this afternoon’s Group 1 Jacques le Marois at Deauville (2:55). Here’s my preview what looks a fascinating renewal.
Coroebus just heads the betting in his bid for a hat trick of Group 1’s after wins in the 2,000 Guineas and St Jamess Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. A set back meant he was forced to miss his intended engagement in the Sussex Stakes.
With both Bathrat Leon and State Of Rest In the field he should get a decent pace to chase and a return to a straight mile should suit. Soft ground would be a slight concern but despite a far from ideal preparation he’s the one to beat.
High class juvenile filly Inspiral was simply sensational when winning the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on her belated seasonal reappearance. However, she was beaten at 1/7 in the Falmouth Stakes last month. Questions to answer after her latest run but if the Royal Ascot Inspiral turns up, she likely wins this.
Prosperous Voyage beat Inspiral last time and re-opposes here. She shouldn’t be underestimated but Inspiral underperformed at Newmarket and if that one return to her best she should have the beating of Prosperous Voyage.
Multiple Group/Grade 1 winner and globetrotter State Of Rest adds further spice to the mix. All his top level wins have come at around 1m 2f but its interesting to see Joseph O’Brien drop him back to a mile here. He doesn’t lack tactical speed, but I wonder whether he might be better on a turning track.
Light Infantry looks held by Coroebus on 2,000 Guineas form but that was his seasonal reappearance, and the ground would have been plenty quick enough for him at Newmarket. He was seen in a much better light when a 1¼ lengths 2nd of 11 to Tenebrism in Prix Jean Prat over 7f here last time. It was good to soft that day, but he was staying on nicely and should stay the mile. Drying ground would be a worry but if there’s any rain about, he’s an outsider with a chance.
Japanese Challenger Bathrat Leon attempted to make all when credible 3 ½ length 4th of 7 to Baaeed in Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last time. If his jockey can dictate the pace, he would be threat to all although straight track does ask another question of the 4-year-old.
Erevann hasn’t dome anything wrong in winning his three career starts. The colt steps up from Group 3 company here and needs to find a fair bit of improvement to beat the likes of Coroebus. However, its possible the son of Dubawi could be capable of doing so. He’s from the same connections as Vadeni and jockey Christophe Soumillon does hold the 3-year-old in high regard.
Verdict: Given that market leaders Coroebus and Inspiral haven’t had ideal preparations the race is ripe for an upset. Prosperous Voyage shouldn’t be underestimated. Both Light Infantry and in particularly Erevann have a bit to find on the book with the principals and if there is any rain around the former could provide a shock. However, at the prices I’m going with the untapped potential of Erevann to out run his odds.
0.5pts win – Erevann – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
I will be back on Wednesday for the start of York’s Ebor Festival.
Cheers
John