Hi all,
Ascot hosts its annual Shergar Cup this afternoon. Seven of the eight races at the Shergar Cup are being broadcast live on ITV as part of a bumper 11 race programme. One of those 11 is the race of the day the Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (4.15) at the Curragh. ITV are also covering two races from Haydock and one from Newmarket this afternoon.
Inside today’s preview I look at the big Group 1 race at the Curragh and six of the eight races on the Shergar Cup card. Betting advice and selections are as ever at the end of the main piece.
Curragh
4:15 – Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
The Phoenix Stakes is the race is the juvenile race of the season so far and looks one of the strongest renewals of the race for many years with five of the six runners have strong claims.
Bradsell’s Coventry Stakes win is the best form on offer and has been well advertised since. Connections of runner-up Persian Force think they can reverse placings with the winner here, but I think Bradsell can come out on top again.
Little Big Bear is the biggest rival to the favourite and should be well positioned in what could be a tactical race. His stablemate Blackbeard looks the pace angle, and I would expect Ryan Moore to have his mount just behind the leader. Blackbeard looks held by Bradsell on their Royal Ascot running but he could get an uncontested lead here which makes him dangerous.
I had Shartash down as the value pick earlier in the week. He’s open to improvement, but he may require a better run race to be seen at his best.
There’s another Group race earlier on the Curragh card with the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stake (3:15). The first time cheekpieces make Go Bears Go of interest. However, my preference is for high class juvenile Castle Star. He ran well for a long way when on his belated seasonal reappearance when a 5 ¼ lengths 5th of 9 to Ladies Church in a Group 2 here over 5f. He should be sharper for that run and reproduction of his ½ length 2nd of 10 to Perfect Power in last season’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes would see him go close.
Newmarket
The feature race of the Newmarket card is the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes (3:40) run over 7f. Ivory Madonna and Lakota Sioux bring the best form into the race. The first named out-ran her big odds when 3rd of 16 to Meditate in Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, she didn’t run to that form when only a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 in a Newmarket maiden next time. Lakota Sioux won a Lingfield maiden on her second start and then improved again to finish a 2 ½ length 3rd of 13 to Holloway Boy in Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. A repeat of that effort would see her bang there.
One of the most interesting of the nine fillies is the Karl Burke trained Novakai. The daughter of Lope De Vega may have played up before the start of her racecourse debut at Doncaster three weeks ago. However, she could hardly have been more impressive in winning the race. Her dam won over 1m 6f, so she’s bred to improve for middle distances as a 3-year-old.
Alseyoob also created a good impression when making a winning racecourse debut over C&D last month. Like Novakai she’s a daughter of Lope De Vega and is another who will stay further as a 3-year-old. There should be plenty more to come and she looks a nice prospect.
Ascot
My approach to the Shergar Cup is to ignore the jockey’s and go with horses who have course form. I have had a look at six of the eight races on the Ascot card for those interested in having a bet or two.
2:10 – Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash – 5f
Arecibo drops into handicap company for the first time since May 2021 and he’s got to be respected on his 1 ¾ length 2nd of 16 to Oxted in last season’s Group 1 King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Yard could do with a winner but he’s the pick.
2:45 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers – 2m
Super Superjack was a very unlucky runner-up at Goodwood last week and won over C&D in May. He’s 4lb higher than last time but will take the beating if in the same form. Going Gone was an excellent 2 ½ length 4th of 19 to Coltrane in the Ascot Stakes two starts back. Last of six at Newbury last time but could easily bounce back here. Themaxwecan has been running well below his best this season but he’s well handicapped on last year’s form and can’t be totally ruled out if bouncing back. Island Brave was a 2 ½ length 4th of 10 in last year’s race and is 4lb lower this time around. He’s also a previous C&D winner and he’s another in with chance in a strongly run race.
3:20 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge – 1m 4f
The Whipmaster ran well in his bid for a five timer when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 6 to Juan de Montalban over C&D last time.
State Of Bliss is a previous C&D winner and he took advantage of a declining mark when winning at Ripon in April. Hasn’t run close to that form on three starts since but the yard’s runners can bounce back to form from nowhere.
Southern Voyage won a handicap over C&D last summer. He was a well beaten last of 8 at York on his belated seasonal return last month. Has a question to answer about his well being after that run.
Charging Thunder is having his first start at the track but he’s in great form. The 4-year-old bids for the hat trick after wins at Ayr and Newmarket. Drop back to 1m 4f might not be ideal given his last wins have been over further but he’s going the right way and the one for me.
3:55 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile – 1m
Montassib a winner of his first two starts this season he’s since finished a 1 ¼ length 5th of 29 in Buckingham Palace Stakes here at the Royal meeting and ran to a similar level when a close-up 4th of 18 to Bless Him in Bunbury Cup last time. The step up to a mile should suit this improving type who looks a worthy market leader.
Isla Kai a useful handicapper at his best has been running respectably in these sorts of handicaps this season. He should give his running once more but more ease in the ground would suit him better.
Via Serendipity won this is in 2018 for a previous yard. A winner at Sandown in June from 1lb lower. He’s got to bounce back from a couple of poor runs since. Not out of it from a handicap perspective but others have stronger claims.
Bopedro won the Irish Cambridgeshire for Jessica Harrington last season and ran with plenty of promise on his first start for David O’Meara when a 3-length 4th of 10 here last time. Looks a solid contender and high on the shortlist.
4:30 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic – 1m 4f
We know Andrew Balding targets this meeting and I think he’s got a great chance here with Berkshire Breeze. Granted the 3-year-old is a six-race maiden but he’s finished runner-up on his last two starts, including when a head 2nd of 6 to Bague d’Or on handicap debut here last time (1m 6f). A better run race back over 1m 4f should suit and he can surely win a race off his present mark.
5:05 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint – 6f
Admiral D seems to be running into form and has a big chance if reproducing his 1 ½ length 2nd of 19 to Lethal Levi at Newmarket last time. Handled quick ground effectively that day but both his wins when trained in Ireland came on softer ground.
Razeyna improved for the drop back to 6f when running out a comfortable winner on her handicap debut at Carlisle last month. Up 4lb in a deeper race but the 3-year-old has scope to do better in sprint handicaps and looked well suited by a stiff 6f last time.
Sterling Knight won twice in the spring, including a lesser handicap over C&D. He bounced back to his best when a running on 1 ¼ length 3rd of 15 in the Fitzdares Sprint Series Final at Windsor on Monday. Very much respected on ground that suits.
Romantic Time won a Group 3 as a juvenile has struggled off a higher mark this season but has run respectably on her last two starts and isn’t totally ruled out in one of the most competitive handicaps on the card.
Betting Advice:
It’s a quiet day on the selections front for a Saturday.
Ascot
2:45 – 1pt each way – Themaxwecan – 22/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Island Brave – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
3:20 – 1pt win – Charging Thunder – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:55 – 1pt win – Bopedro – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:05 – 1pt win – Sterling Knight – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
3:15 – Castle Star – 9/2 – Gen.
Cheers
John