Hi all,
Sprint handicaps don’t come much more competitive than the Coral Goodwood Stewards Cup (3:20). One of the biggest betting races of the flat season. If ever a race perfectly fitted the description “cavalry charge” it’s the Stewards Cup with 28 runners charging down downhill towards the winning post. You can see why a bookmaker would want to sponsor the headline race of the final of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
In a shorter than normal preview I look at the Coral Goodwood Stewards Cup and there are few more selections from Goodwood.
Goodwood Festival – Day 5
3:20 – Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) – 6f
Looking at some of the key ten year trends:
Seven of the last 10 winners of the race carried 9-1 or more so recent renewals have gone to a classy horse near the top of the weights
There’s a spread of winners across the age groups. Three 3-year-old’s have won the contest since 2012 with the oldest winner being the 7-year-old Lancelot Du Lac in 2017.
Despite the competitive nature of the race, it’s not been the worst race for punters. Favorites are 3 winners from 10 bets +7.5 4 placed in the past ten years. Meanwhile horse returned 12/1 or shorter are 7 winners from 57 bets +1.5 17 placed. The biggest priced winner of recent season was Lancelot Du Lac (25/1) and there have been two other winners returned 20/1 & 22/1. Those winners mean it’s still well worth having a bigger priced outsider on the shortlist that could outrun their odds.
The draw is well worth considering. Although winners have been spread right across the track. It seems best to be drawn either in the first four stalls or 15 or bigger. Four of the last ten winners were drawn in stalls 1 to 4 with the other six coming from those drawn 15 to 26.
The place to avoid as far the draw has been concerned are stalls 5 to 14 which have produced 0 winners from 89 bets 15 placed.
As ever in these sorts of races pace is a very important part of solving the puzzle. Looking at the pace maps for this year’s race it seems most of it is drawn middle to high which could swing the advantage to higher drawn horses.
The jockey’s drawn low would probably be best advised to take their medicine and head to the far rail. I have two on my shortlist drawn in the first four stalls.
Popmaster (3) and First Folio (4). The former ran a cracker to finish a ¾-length 2nd of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap. Now 3lb higher but in the mix. First Folio was a 3 ¾ length 6th of 26 in the Wokingham. He get’s a 4lb pull with Popmaster which wouldn’t normally be enough but he wasn’t as well placed in the middle of the track that day so you can markup that effort. Respected given he goes well on quick ground.
We have the last two winners of the race in Commanche Falls (2021) and Summerghand (2022). The latter is has become well handicapped and loves fast ground. However, he’s drawn in ‘no man’s land’ in stall 10 which has put me off my long term fancy.
Commanche Falls is 2lb higher than when winning 12 months ago. He made a good seasonal reappearance but then wasn’t suited by Epsom two starts back and then unseated his rider at the start in the Wokingham. This has likely been the plan and he should get a good tow into the race from stall 19. Ground totally different to last year but he goes on good to firm.
Whenthedealinsdone (25) caught the eye for this when a 2 ¾ length 7th of 20 to Mountain Peak at Ascot over 5f last time. He didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out that day or would have finished closer.
Inver Park (15) has been in tremendous form since joining George Boughey winning twice over 6f at Windsor and Hamilton. He improved again to win the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot when stepped up to 7f last time. The drop back to 6f shouldn’t be an inconvenience and even with a 4lb rise in the weight must enter calculations.
Regional (27) will be suited by a return to 6f after taking a bit to long to hit top gear when a head 2nd of 10 at Doncaster last time. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for the 4-year-old who is a on a winnable mark.
2:10 – Coral Summer Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Red Flyer outran his odds (100/1) and put in a career best when a short head 2nd of 16 to Soapy Stevens at Newmarket (1¾m) 22 days ago. The 4-year-old has been nudged up 2lb but remains on a competitive mark and is unexposed over 1m 6f. Trawlerman suffered some serious interference and had no chance after when a 6 ¾ length 10th of 16 to Soapy Stevens. He’s entitled to do better here in the first time hood and with Benoit De La Sayette taking off a handy 5lb.
Bague D’Or comes into the race bidding for hat trick after wins at Newmarket & Ascot. Now 2-2 over 1m 6f. He’s now 3lb higher than for his last win but is going the right way and there’s a good chance his improvement hasn’t ended just yet.
2:45 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 6f
Forbearance looks held by Emily Dickinson on their running in a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month and hasn’t really fired so far on three starts this season. However, the mare would have a good chance in this if reproducing last season’s best. This will be her first start on good to firm ground since winning a Group 3 at Newmarket last September and a return to genuinely quick ground could see her bounce back to her best today.
3:55 – Medallia Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
The booking of Benoit De La Sayette for Positive Impact is an eyecatching one after the 3-year -old’s short head 2nd of 8 to Jimi Hendrix in handicap at Newmarket three weeks ago. That was a personal best from the gelding and although he’s been raised 5lb that weight rise is negated by his jockey’s claim. Strong claims but he does need to get across from his wide draw in stall 10.
Koy Koy is steadily progressive for Andrew Balding the 3-year-old made a winning debut for trainer George Boughey at Newmarket two weeks ago. He had to dig deep to hold of challengers inside the final furlong that day which will hold him in good stead here. Up 2lb and back down to 7f here but Ryan Moore booked, and a big run looks forthcoming.
Galiac a previous C&D winner has to be respected back over a track that suits. Not seen to best effect when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 7 in a slowly run race at Sandown last time. The forecast stronger gallop here and a handy draw in stall 2 should see him in better light.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
2:10 – 1pt win – Bague D’Or – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Red Flyer – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:45 – 1pt win – Forbearance – 14/1 @ Bet365
3:20 – 1pt win – Regional – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Inver Park – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – First Folio -12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:55 – 1pt win – Koy Koy – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
I will be back with some selections from the final day of the Galway Festival tomorrow.
Cheers
John