Hi all,
I’m posting this up early, as I think one or two selection will be Pricewise picks.
Newmarket’s July Festival gets underway this afternoon. The going is being described as good to firm¸ good in places. ‘Spits and spots’ of rain forecast for today, but the next three days are set to be mostly dry. It’s worth noting that Clerk Of The Course put down plenty of water before the last meeting so it may not ride as quick.
Today I’m previewing the four Newmarket races and one from Carlisle being covered live by ITV this afternoon. Although one of today’s selections runs in the final handicap on the Newmarket card.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 1
1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5f
Masekela is a worthy favourite after his 8-length 4th of 17 to Desert Crown in Derby at Epsom last time. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and could be a St Leger contender. The only thing that could see hm beaten is in a slowly run affair.
Al Qareem is likely to get a solo out in front, but he can’t afford to set too strong pace like he did when 4th of 12 in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Zechariah finished runner-up in the Queen’s Vase. He looked much improved for the step up to 1m 6f that day. He’s joint top on OR’s with Masekela and with Ryan Moore booked must be respected.
2:25 – Close Brothers July Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Eight juveniles are set to go to post and seven of them ran in a Royal Ascot juvenile last time. Five of then ran in the Coventry Stakes and the best of them was runner-up Persian Force. An impressive winner of the BrocklesbyStakes on the opening day of the season. The colt should be open to win a Group race as a juvenile. Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2016 with Persian Force’s sire Mehmas in 2016 and last year with Lusail.
Aidan O’Brien saddled Royal Lytham to success in 2019 and his runner Little Big Bear won the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. There’s just 1lb between the pair on RPR’s but he’s probably open to more improvement than the Hannon horse and the return to 6f should suit.
The only runner in the field not to race at Royal Ascot is Newbury winner Mysterious Night. The colt didn’t have to be improve on his racecourse debut to win last time but is open to plenty of improvement and should be able to hold his own in Group company. I pointed yesterday his trainer Charlie Appleby’s record at the meeting with runners returned 7/1 & under.
3:00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
A 19-runner sprint handicap now were talking. Famous last word but I don’t think this race is as competitive as its numbers suggest.
The William Haggas trained Khanjar is clear favourite in the ante post betting, and you can see why. The gelding is bidding for hat trick after wins at Ascot and on his seasonal return/handicap debut at Ripon 22-days ago. He’s now 9lb higher and in a deeper race but he was well on top at the finish last time despite a poor start. There’s likely more to come from him.
The drop back to 6f and the fitting of the first-time blinkers make Deodar of plenty of interest. He didn’t stay 7f when only 3rd of 5 here 14-days ago. He ran Commonwealth Cup runner-up Flaming Rib to 1 length in a Doncaster Listed race on his second juvenile start last season. Ryan Moore rode him that day and he’s back in the saddle here.
Ingra Tor was an impressive winner of 6f handicap on the other track in April. He then ran no sort of race when only 11th of 19 behind Harry Three at York. Sent off the well-backed 7/2 favourite he had beaten the winner convincingly at Newmarket the time before. If you forgive him that performance, he wouldn’t be 9/1 but would be favourite for this.
Le Beau Garcon is 1lb out of the handicap, but he looks a sprint handicapper going the right way after his unlucky ¾-length second of 11 at Musselburgh on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut. He should stay 6f and is open to further improvement for a yard among the winners.
Aasser, a head 2nd of 7 over 7f at Ayr last time has the first-time visor replacing the cheekpieces he wore at Ayr for a return to sprinting. He’s got a decent chance on his all-weather form but may prefer a bit more ease to win on turf.
At bigger odds Atomic Lady and Admiral D can’t be dismissed. Atomic Lady hasn’t been at her on either start this season but isn’t out of this if returning to her best juvenile form. Admiral D shaped ok when a 4 ½ lengths 6th of 19 to Harry Three in a valuable 6f handicap at York last time. There’s a race to be won with him but he might prefer an easier surface.
3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Close Brothers Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Not a race to get too enthusiastic about in all honesty with just the six runners going to post. The case for turning Group 2 & 3 races into valuable Limited Handicaps to make them more appealing is being made yet again here. It’s 6/4 the pair Mostahdaf & Yibir and It looks between the pair. The first named seemed to stay 1m 4f when runner-up to Broome in the Group 2Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. He might prove too quick for his rivals. However, I prefer the Charlie Appleby trained Yibir who really improved for a gelding operation last year. The 4-year-old won the Bahrain Trophy on this card 12 months ago, Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, and ended the season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar. He has 3lb in hand of Mostahdaf on OR’s and the quicker the ground the better his chance.
4:40 – Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap (Class 3) – 1m
Despite Roger Varian’s record at this meeting, I do like his runner Enforced here. One of two 3-year-olds in the field. The gelding bids for the hat trick after winning on his handicap debut over C&D two weeks ago. He’s improving and has strong claims off just 5lb higher. Repertoire a quick ground handicap winner on his seasonal return bounced back from a poor Chester run when a 2 ¾ lengths 3rd of 7 to Magical Morning at Doncaster last time. He’s in the mix but trainer David Simcock has gone 28 runners since his last winner.
Coase won over mile at the other track in April and went close at Sandown two starts back. He’s holding his form well but has had busy 2020. Power of Darkness won over C&D August and is weighted to be competitive but has a 285-day absence to overcome.
Charlie Appleby has a couple of live contenders in Noble Dynasty & Echo Point and he’s won the last two running’s of the race. Both geldings are returning from absences, but I just prefer the former who is the choice of William Buick and won off a five month layoff at Thirsk last September. He disappointed on his final two starts last season, but he’s been gelded since his last run and is just 1lb above his Thirsk winning mark.
Noble Dynasty is probably best caught fresh and he and Enforced look the ones to concentrate on with the former just shading it at present odds.
Carlisle
2:45 – British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
You can make some sort of case for all 13 runners in this competitive sprint handicap. Razeyna, trained by William Haggas, is sure to be popular with punters on her handicap debut. This track will suit her better than Chester did last time. However, she’s beaten at short odds on her last two starts and she doesn’t look progressive. The same can’t be said of Monica who won a C&D novice on seasonal reappearance 24-days ago. The 3-year-old does look a progressive and looks sure to go well switching to handicaps for the first time.
The consistent Lady Lade should give her running once more. As should Run This Way although her best RPR came when winning on soft ground at Thirsk in April and some rain would improve her chance.
Apart from Monica. I like the claims of the Michael Dods trained Emeralds Pride. The 3-year-old looked to have improved nicely from two to three when winning at Thirsk on her seasonal return and bounced back from a poor effort at 7f when a 1 ½ length 4th of 13 at Redcar last month. The first time cheekpieces are applied and Ben Curtis who is 6-15 40% at the track the season is a positive jockey booking.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:25 – 1pt win – Mysterious Night – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – 1pt win – Le Beau Garcon – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Deodar – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:40 – 1pt win – Noble Dynasty – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Carlisle
2:45 – 1pt each way – Emeralds Pride – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Monica – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John