Hi all,
It’s a low key end to the weekend in Britain & Ireland although the Listed Queen Charlotte Fillies’ Stakes (3:20) is the highlight of an eight-race card at Chelmsford on Sunday afternoon. The consistent Bounce The Blues makes her all-weather debut today. Runner-up on her last two starts she can go one place better if she takes to the surface. She does however face a real Chelmsford specialist in Internationalangel who is 4-4 over C&D and looks a tough rival to my fancy.
Hurricane Heading To Saint-Cloud
There are two big races in Europe on Sunday. At Saint-Cloud nine have been declared for the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.
Hurricane Lane looked rusty on his seasonal return when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 7 to Broome in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. The ground at Ascot was probably a shade quick for the 4-year-old. Last year’s Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and the St Leger winner is the best on ratings and is a worthy favourite.
Alpinista was an improving 4-year-old last season winning all five of her starts, including three Group 1 in Germany. The Sir Mark Prescott trained mare makes her belated seasonal return today. It would be a very good performance for her to win this off a lay off and she’s likely to be better for the run.
There’s a strong British & Irish challenge. Besides Hurricane Lane and Alpinista we have the frustrating Aidan O’Brien trained High Definition; the Roger Varian trained Third Realm who bounced back to winning ways at Goodwood last time and will like the rain softened ground and Lone Eagle who was third to Third Realm last time on his first since injuring himself in last season’s King George. He was beaten a neck by Hurricane Lane in last season’s Irish Derby and reproduction of the performance would see him in the picture but there have to be doubts as to whether he’s as good he was last season.
The biggest rivals to the favourite seem likely to emerge from the home team. Mare Australis won the Group 1 Prix Ganey last May but was forced to miss the rest of last season. The 5-year-old has returned to action in good form and won a Group 2 at Chantilly last time. Bubble Gift was a 2-length runner-up to Mare Australis at Chantilly. Last season’s Prix Niel winner can get closer here and has each way claims.
Sweet Lady goes very well at the track, winning here last time, which makes her a place contender and there could be more to come from her over 1m 4f. She was beaten ¾ length by Barattion her first start at the distance two starts back. The filly goes very well on soft ground so connections will be hoping the ground doesn’t dry out too much before post time. Baratti is 2-2 when racing beyond 1m 2f and the 4-year-old has looked an improved colt this season winning both starts. Has plenty to find on ratings with an inform Hurricane Lane but he’s going the right way and is another with each-way claims.
Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond a fully fit Hurricane Lane from a win perspective but a decently run race can see Bubble Gift into the places.
Frankie’s Seeking German Derby Success.
In Germany it’s the Deutsches Derby (2:45) at Hamburg. The race has attracted a big field of 20 and Frankie Dettori has been booked for Racing Post forecast favourite So Moonstruck. However, Frankie will have to he’s very best if he’s to reverse placings with Sammarco who beat him a head in a Group 2 at Cologne last time and is open to more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
Chelmsford
3:55 – Above is 2-2 over C&D and the top weight who finished runner-up on two starts on turf before finishing well down the field in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot is taken to come out on top back sprinting and returned to the all-weather.
Market Rasen
4:45 – Caius Marcius made all to beat Ask Paddington by 3 ¼ lengths in this corresponding race last year. The 11-year-old is now 17lb lower than 12 months ago and shaped with encouragement when 3rd of 6 here last time. Ask Paddington comes into the race in excellent form having won his last two starts over C&D and latterly Hexham. However, he will do well to beat the selection on 15lb worse terms than last year.
Betting Advice:
Saint-Cloud
3:00 – 1pt each way – Bubble Gift – 33/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
Chelmsford
3:55 – 1pt win – Above – 5/1 @ Bet365
Market Rasen
4:45 – 1pt win – Caius Marcius – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John