Hi all,
It took until the final race on Day 4 to get off the mark for the week. Plenty of winners have been highlighted in the daily previews over the last few days but I haven’t just picked the right ones. It’s one of the problems with going for value rather than the likeliest looking winner. However, it’s an approach that does pay dividends over the long term.
It’s almost done for another year. Royal Ascot comes and goes in the blink of an eye and here we are on the final day of the meeting. Here’s my final preview of the day’s races and as ever my betting advice follows at the end of the main piece.
Today’s card looks the toughest of the whole meeting.
Once again, it’s the 2-year-old’s that get us underway in the Listed Chesham Stakes (2:30).
Royal Ascot
2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
The Aidan O’Brien trained Alfred Munnings could be something special after seeing his racecourse debut success at Leopardstown. It will be interesting to see how short he goes in the betting as the yard has won four of the last six running’s of the race. He does face some promising rivals though including Curragh winner Crypto Force, recent Yarmouth runner-up Alzahir who Frankie Dettori rides from three Gosden runners. Then we have Finn’s Charm who outclassed four rivals at Musselburgh last time and The Foxes. The latteris a half-brotherto Bangkok. He’s going to be at his best as 3-year-old over 1m 2f, but he shaped with plenty of promise when 2 length 4th of 14 to Dark Thirty on his racecourse debut in maiden at Newbury. Dark Thirty is capable of further progress with racing but probably not as much as The Foxes.
Verdict: Alfred Munnings looks the most likely winner, but The Foxes has each way claims.
3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Noble Truth tops the ratings here and he looked an ideal type for this when winning a Newmarket Listed race in April. He’s been gelded since that run but looks a worthy favourite. However, he does face a couple of interesting rivals who bring classic form to the race. Star Girls Aalmal was well backed before finishing a6 ¼ lengths fourth of 14 to Homeless Songs in Irish 1000 Guineas last time. She was just run out of second close to home and the drop back to 7f will suit the filly. Rocchigiani almost stole the German 2,000 Guineas but was caught close to home by Maljoom. The winner has boosted the form of that race when finishing an unlucky fourth in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes earlier this week. The drop back to 7f should suit and if he’s effective on quick ground should go well. Samburu is unbeaten on his three starts. He takes a big step up in class from handicap company last time. The Kingman colt is capable of more progress with racing and is probably a pattern horse in the making. French Challenger Toimy Son won a Longchamp Listed race over 7f when last seen 48-days ago and this has been the target since. He’s got each way claims if the handles the quickest ground he’s run on. Tacarib Bay might want the thunderstorms to arrive, but he wasn’t disgraced when 9¼ lengths 12th of 15 to Coroebus in 2000 Guineas. This is more his level and he’s another with place claims.
3:40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Hurricane Lane is the best of these on form, but the favourite is worth taking on his seasonal return, especially if the ground continues to be as quick as it is. Broome has 6lb to find with the favourite on official ratings. He will handle the ground and will strip a lot fitter for his seasonal return in the on his seasonal return in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. The Aidan O’Brien trained 6-year-old is the each-way thieves’ selection, if all eight runners stand their ground. Solid Stone has been supplemented for the race on his first start over 1m 4f. The gelding is an uncomplicated ride with a good attitude at the finish and goes well on quick ground.
4:20 – Platinum Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Australian sprinter Home Affairs is a short-priced favourite to give Chris Waller another Group 1 success after Nature Strip’s win in the King Stand Stakes on Tuesday. The other Australian challenger Artorius has a bit to find on ratings with the favourite but he’s got a good chance as Ascot stiff 6f could suit him with Jamie Spencer talking the ride.
It could be that the Australian horses are much better than the rest, but they do face 25 rivals who are close to each other on the figures.
Highfield Princess looked much improved for the step back to 6f when quickening clear of her eight rivals when winning the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at York last time. Minzaal was a 3 ¾ length third to Highfield Princess on his seasonal return last time. Given the winner had race fitness on her side there’s a decent chance Minzaal could finish ahead of her today. He was just 2 lengths behind Creative Force on Champions Day that came after just one previous run last season. The first time cheekpieces are applied and he’s got each way claims
Alcohol Free won two Group 1’s over a mile last year. Hasn’t been at her best on both starts over that distance this season and looks interesting dropped back to sprinting. Albeit she might prefer softer ground.
A Case Of You is a smart sprinter on his day and could get into the places despite underwhelming run at the Curragh last time. Creative Force won the Group 1 sprint over C&D on Champions Day. He also won the Jersey Stakes (7f) last season so goes very well here and must be respected. Campanelle won the Commonwealth Cup over C&D in the stewards room last year. She also won the Queen Mary here as juvenile and is another who goes well at the track. Emaraaty Ana hardly beat rival on two starts in Meydan but he’s very much respected on his win in last season’s Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Great Ambassador was an improving sprinter last year and ended the campaign with an excellent 2nd of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup under a big weight. He goes well fresh and wouldn’t need to improve much for the step into Group company.
Another who goes well fresh is Sacred who is 2-2 when returning from a 121+day layoff. Quick ground suits her and there was plenty to like about her strong travelling performance when winning the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (7f) at Newbury on her final start of last season. She’s got plenty of pace and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to 6f.
5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
It doesn’t get any easier to find a winner with 28 handicappers declared to run. Last year’s winner Rohaan is now 3lb below that winning mark. The reason for that is that he hasn’t run to that level of form since. If he bounces back to last year’s best, he will be tough to beat, and Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking. He seems to go on quick ground, but he won’t be inconvenienced if the thunderstorms arrive.
Summerghand is another who has dropped down to a good mark. He was only beaten a nose in this in 2020 off today’s mark. He’s best suited by quick ground and was doing his best work at the finish when a 3 ½ length 6th of 22 to Dakota Gold at York last month. Stall 27 might be ok as their looks to be plenty of pace among the high drawn runners.
Ante post favourite Fresh has an excellent record hereon the straight course and was only beaten a neck in this last year. He should go well again but he may not run if the ground is too quick. Silver Samurai has improved for the return to 6f and he bids for the hat trick after a career best effort when winning at Haydock last time. He get’s a 5lb penalty to carry for his latest success but he had plenty in hand last time and still looks on a good mark. This race could really suit the 5-year-old and he’s on the high on the shortlist.
Popmaster has always suggested that a big field/strong pace scenario would suit and he’s on a competitive mark. He ran well when second at Chelmsford last time. A couple of places behind him that day was Tiger Crusade but that one was having his first start since October and was conceding race fitness that day. He’s got form over C&D, stays 7f and he will get a typical Jamie Spencer hold up ride.
Pricewise has gone for Lampang and you can see why. He looked a much improved sprinter for a gelding operation when winning at Ayr on his seasonal return in April. He’s been kept for this race and is only 4lb higher than last time. James McDonald has been booked for the 5-year-old and a big run can be expected if he’s as effective in a big field.
Blackrod looked an improved sprint handicapper when winning at Newmarket in April on his seasonal return. He’s only 5lb higher than last time and has been kept fresh for this. Another big player who should be fine on the ground although trainer Michael Dods thinks he doesn’t want it too quick. Jumby was 5 lengths behind Blackrod that day, but he was slowly away but if he can get off on level terms, he’s on decent mark.
We don’t see many French challengers in these big field handicaps, but we have couple of them here. The best of them could be Prince Lancelot who is bidding for a hat trick after two wins at Chantilly. That said a big field like this is a bit of an unknown and his best form in France has come with ease in the ground. The other French trained runner Batwan won twice in Meydan on good ground, in double figure sized fields, over the winter. He was 2 ½ length behind Prince Lancelot last time but may have just needed the run.
5:35 – Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Just 16 for this handicap but it’s on the round course so it’s a maximum field and they are all 3-year-olds, many of them with plenty of upside.
Falling Shadow looked a useful prospect when winning a Newbury maiden last month. He’s been gelded since and is open to further progress on his handicap debut. Stablemate Blue Trail was a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 10 in the Esher Cup at Sandown last time. He’s vulnerable to more progressive rivals, like Falling Shadow, but the step up to 1m 2f night bring out more improvement.
Missed The Cut comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at Pontefract and Salisbury. Another capable of better on his handicap debut and James McDonald has been booked for the ride. The Gosden’s have a couple of potential improvers in Honiton & Aldous Huxley. The first named the pick of Frankie Dettori who got off the mark at the 5th attempt when winning a Sandown maiden 7-days ago. He’s yet another potential improver for his handicap debut. Aldous Huxley has got top-weight of 9-9 to defy on his handicap debut but Benoit De La Sayette does take off a handy 5lb. He ran Irish Derby contender Lionel to a neck in a Goodwood Listed race last time and could be a pattern horse but stall 1 may not be ideal.
Both Knightswood & Chairman are bidding for hat tricks and look likely to progress further in particular the former who makes his handicap debut and won over further last time. Phantom Flight is another runner seeking a hat trick. Both his wins have come on a sound surface and over a mile. A mark of 95 looks tough on his handicap debut but he’s bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f and can’t be discounted.
French challenger Pervade ran well when dropped back to a mile last time, but he’s bred to effective at 1m 2f. His dam was very effective on quick ground, and he could improve for a faster surface.
6:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f
The longest race of the five day’s and not one I normally have an interest in. As a betting race it’s spoilt by the declaration of short priced favourite Trueshan who will only run if the thunderstorms arrive which doesn’t seem too likely. Wordsworth will go off favourite if Trushan doesn’t run. He didn’t seem to be stopping at the finish when 4th in the Sagaro Stakes here over 2m two starts back and could improve further for this marathon trip. Falcon Eight was well beaten in this race last year when sent off the 7/4 favourite but the ground was too testing for him that day and he’s better suited by quicker ground. Nate The Great was a good 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Quickthorn In the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown last time and has each way claims. Stratum won this 12 months ago, but it was soft ground, and this looks a stronger renewal. Reshoun has a bit to find at the weights, but he wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ½ length 5th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes on Tuesday. He did best of those coming from the rear that day and has place claims. The Andre Fabre trained Timour has Group form over 1m 4f in France. No reason on pedigree to think he want’s this sort of trip but should he stay then he’s another who could get into the money.
Betting Advice:
2:30 – 0.5pts each way – The Foxes – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
3:05 – 1pt win – Rocchigiani – 12/1 – Gen
4:20 – 1pt win – Sacred – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – and 0.5pts each way – Great Ambassador – 33/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
5:00 –1pt win – Silver Samurai – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes; 1pt win – Blackrod – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Summerghand – 22/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes.
5:35 – 1pt win – Falling Shadow – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Phantom Flight – 14/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John