Hi all,
The highlight of the week and for some the flat season the Cazoo Derby (4.30) where Desert Crown will bid to become the first Dante winner since Golden Horn in 2015 to follow up in the Derby. It’s good to see the race will be run in memory of Lester Piggott. It’s a fantastic gesture given he was so synonymous with race during his long career.
Sir Michael Stoute has won the Derby five times including for Desert Crown’s owner Saeed Suhail with Kris Kin in 2003. Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer in Derby history with eight wins. He comes into this year’s renewal race with a three strong team led by Stone Age.
There are also two Group 3 races on the Epsom card the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (2:35) and the Cazoo Diomed Stakes (3:10). Add in four big field handicaps the highlight being the 20-runner Epsom ‘Dash’ and you have the makings of a cracking day’s sport.
Cazoo Epsom Derby Day
There are mixed messages on the weather front for Derby Day. The BBC Weather app is saying light rain overnight and in the morning. On the other hand, the Norwegian Weather app I use was on Friday morning predicting as much as 12mm of the wet stuff. However, by Friday evening it was suggesting just 4mm. If the former turns out be correct then we’ll be looking at good to soft, maybe even soft ground. So, you pay your money, and you take your chance. I have one that I like in the last at Epsom in Punchbowl Flyer but soft ground is essential if he’s to have a serious chance.
All in all, I would be tempted to leave your bets until you know what’s happened weather wise at Epsom. That’s not something as I tipster that’s not an option for me especially as I’m having to send this out on Friday evening.
2:00 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
The field sizes for the Epsom handicaps have stood up well and this is no exception with 15 declared.
Mr Big Stuff was unlucky not to finish closer when a 3 ½ length 5th of 12 in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. He didn’t get the best of passages in the final 2f and with better luck in the run today shouldn’t be far away.
War Horse had Nolton Cross 1 ½ length back in third when winning at Sandown 16-days ago. The winner had race fitness on his side that and gets a 2lb pull in the weights which entitles him to get closer here. That said the winner responded well to the first time cheekpieces and may have improvement in him.
Taj Alola is more exposed, but he posted a career best in RPR’s when ¾ length 2nd of 7 at Ripon last month. The first time cheekpieces he wore that day are replaced by the first-time visor. He shouldn’t be far away if the change in headgear has the desired effect.
Swilcan Bridge has a tricky draw in stall 12 to negotiate and is 4lb out of the handicap but he’s going the right way as he showed when a head 2nd of 9 at Goodwood last time. Trainer Andrew Balding is 2-8, 3 placed with his runners in the race since 2010.
The next two races are not ones I have looked at in much detail.
2:35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Cazoo) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m ½ f
Majestic Glory was a useful juvenile winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera at Newmarket last August. The 3-year-old made a pleasing seasonal reappearance with a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 12 to Wild Beauty in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury. She finished her race off well over 7f last time and should be suited by return to mile. I’m not sure whether she wants soft ground though but if its good ground she would be the pick.
3:10 – Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – 1m ½ f
A more confident pick here in Mutasaabeq as any ease in the ground will suit. He handled soft ground very well when winning at Thirsk on his seasonal return. Looked unlucky when unlucky a neck 2nd of 6 to Lights On in a Group 2 at Sandown last time. There’s a Group race to be won the colt this season and hopefully it will be today.
3:45 – Simpex Express ‘Dash’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
A maximum field of 20 for this downhill cavalry charge. The one certainty is this race will be run at a furious pace. That will suit last year’s winner Mokaatil who is 5lb higher this time around, but Harry Davies does take off a handy 5lb. The 7-year-old won over C&D in April and has now won on his last three visits to the track. Given his record here and the likely pace of the race then he can’t be ruled out.
Looking at the ten-year trends to create a manageable shortlist:
Stall: Not 3 to 8
Handicap Runs: 8 to 31
Track Last Time: Not Epsom, Goodwood, Newmarket (Rowley)
Going Last Time: Not Heavy, soft or all-weather
9 winners from 54 runners +97.5 19 placed
Using the above trends leaves just four qualifiers King Of Stars, Sunday Sovereign, Tees Spirit & Mid Winster.
Shortlist
The well fancied Stone of Destiny passes three of the four trends but had his last run at Goodwood. He finished a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 16 to Mokaatil 12 months ago. He was unlucky in the run last year and he might well have won but for that. He’s 10lb lower this time around and although he was disappointing at Goodwood last time this has been likely the plan and he’s two well handicapped to ignore.
King Of Stars is a very useful 5f sprint handicapper at this best. He will be sharper for his first start for 3 months when a 4 ¾ length 4th of 9 to stablemate Raasel in a Listed race at Haydock last Saturday.
Sunday Sovereign can win this, but he be can very inconsistent. The 5-year-old was on a going day when a neck 2nd of 12 to Illusionist at York 14-days ago. He’s well suited to rain softened ground so if the rain arrives it won’t inconvenient him.
Tees Spirit has returned to action looking a much-improved handicapper, winning both this season’s starts at Beverley and Nottingham. Up 6lb in a much better race but he’s going the right way and the hat trick bid is very much on. Although soft ground would be unknown for the 4-year-old.
Mid Winster returned to winning ways when dropped back to 5f at Catterick 7 days ago. The mare is now 5lb higher but should remain competitive. Probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much before the race as she’s 0-7, 0 places on soft or yielding ground. Trainer Paul Midgley has saddled the winner twice since 2015.
4:30 – Cazoo Derby (In Memory Of Lester Piggott) (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Despite the presence of a short-priced favourite in Desert Crown the race has attracted a big field of 17 colts.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Desert Crown won comfortably and if he was drift out to around 5/2, he would be an interesting betting proposition too.
I can see Stone Age taking it up two furlongs from home and it could be a case of whether the Stoute can pass him inside the final furlong. Despite the big field I think the front two in the betting have strong credentials.
Given the possibility of rain you can see why Aidan O’Brien’s Chester Vase soft ground winner Changingofteguard has been well backed in the last few days. He also gets the addition of the first time cheekpieces today which could bring out more improvement in the colt. Stablemate Star Of India relished the step up to 1m 2f when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester last time. He’s only had three starts so is capable of better if he stays today’s extra two furlongs. He looks the each-way value of the race at around 16/1. Both O’Brien colts haven’t got the best of draws out wide although Star Of India in particular looks worth an each way play.
5:15 – World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Mascat and Solent Getaway were separated by a neck when second & third over C&D in April. The first named has since gone on to run just as well again when 3rd of 16 at Ascot. Meanwhile Solent Getaway failed to settle and ran poorly when well fancied for the Chester Cup last time. Better can be expected back at a track where he’s won at before.
Midnight Legacy won this race 12 months ago, from 3lb lower. Back from a couple runs over hurdles in the Spring. On a handy mark back on the flat and William Buick who rode him to last year’s success is back in the saddle for the first time since.
Boss Power has looked a better horse on the all-weather than turf, but he was an eye-catching 7 ¼ lengths 7th of 16, 1 ¼ lengths behind Mascat at Ascot last time. He didn’t get as clear a passage in the straight as Mascat that day and shouldn’t be far away if the ground is good or better.
If the rain arrives three who will be suited areAaddeey, Farhanand Winter Reprise.
Aaddeey had no problem with soft ground when winning at Doncaster last October. He compromised his chance when slowly away on his return to action when a 3 length 6th of 10 at Kempton in April. Will need luck in the run from stall one but is in the mix.
Farhan looked a progressive middle distance handicapper when winning the November Handicap (soft) at Doncaster. The 4-year-old shaped with encouragement when finishing 2 ¾ length 4th of 10 just ahead of Boss Power (5th) and Aaddeey (6th) at Kempton on his return to action. A disappointing 11/8 favourite when only 5th of 6 at Hamilton 22-days ago. Capable of bouncing back if handling the track.
Winter Reprise was only beaten a neck on his seasonal return at Saint-Cloud last month. Has stamina to prove on his return to 1m 4f. Any rain will be welcome and he does hail from the shrewd David Menuisier yard so can’t be discounted.
5:50 – JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Commanche Falls a four time winner last season, including the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, made a solid reappearance, when ½ length 2nd of 4 at Doncaster. It’s a first runner for trainer Michael Dods at Epsom in the past five years.
Musicka returned to form out of the blue at the end of 2021 winning three times on the all-weather. Hasn’t been in much form so far this year but is 7lb lower than when finishing a neck runner-up in last year’s race.
if the rain arrives in a sufficient amount, then Punchbowl Flyer comes into contention. Back down to 6f here after a better effort over 7f last time. He’s now 4lb below last season’s last winning mark and could be set for a big run if the ground eases significantly.
Regional a winner on his handicap debut and first start for Edward Bethall at Haydock (good to firm) last August. Has run respectably on all four starts since, including when runner-up in a Group 2 in Qatar in February. Could be capable of better as a 4-year-old but soft ground would be an unknown.
Alligator Alley shaped well on both starts since switching to David O’Meara and returning from a long absence. Not so good last time when only 10th of 12 at York (good to soft) last time though. Today’s extra furlong and soft ground as ask further questions of the 5-year-old.
Betting Advice:
I have selections in five of the seven races on Derby Day.
Epsom
2:00 – 1pt win – War Horse -8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Nolton Cross – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – 1pt win – Tees Spirit – 12/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Sunday Sovereign – 14/1 @ Bet365
4:30 – 1pt each way – Star Of India – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
5:15 – 1pt win – Aaddeey – 7/1 – Gen and 1pt win – Mascat – 7/1 @ Bet365
5:50 – 1pt win – Musicka -16/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Commanche Falls – 13/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John