Hi all,
It’s been a challenging month but you must dig in. Now it’s just a case of trying to limit losses for May and wait for June to begin.
The highlight of a busy Saturday of action is the Irish 2,000 Guineas (3.20) where English 2,000 Guineas runner-up Native Trail will be a hot favourite to go one better.
The best of the action in Britain is at Haydock where Nunthorpe winner Winter Power makes her seasonal return in the Group 2 Temple Stakes (3.45). The Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes (3.10) adds more spice to a high-quality Haydock card. There’re also competitive cards at both York, with the Group 3 Bronte Stakes the feature race of a seven-race card and Goodwood. The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Haydock, York, Goodwood and the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
The highlight of a busy Saturday of action is the Irish 2,000 Guineas (3.20) at the Curragh where English 2,000 Guineas runner-up Native Trail is a hot favourite to go one better. His biggest rival looks to be the Joseph O’Brien trained Buckaroo who looked well suited by the drop back to a mile when winning a Listed race over C&D last time. Aidan O’Brien has supplemented the improving Ivy League who ran well against older horses in a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month. He will have to have improved plenty since though to beat the favourite on easy ground.
I begin today’s betting preview at the principal meeting Haydock. As ever my selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
2:00 – Cazoo Hell Nook Handicap (Class 2) – 2m
Alright Sunshine doesn’t win very often and isn’t the most reliable but he was on a going day 5¼ length 3rd of 14 to Enemy at Musselburgh last time.
Valley Forge hasn’t really built on his Melrose success at York Ebor Meeting. Not a bad effort on his seasonal return when a 4½ lengths 5th of 9 at Newmarket last time. He will be sharper today and shapes like he might stay 2m.
Bandinelli has been in good form on the all-weather at Kempton. Up 3lb for his latest success in March but he’s now 2-2 since being stepped up to 2m and could progress further for more of a stamina test. He won here over 1m 6f on quick ground last September so has plenty in his favour today.
Merveillo was useful on the flat when trained in France winning in Listed company (1m 4f). The 4-year-old put in a respectable effort, on his first start for Jonjo O’Neill, when 8 length 4th of 7 to Ahorsewithnoname at Newbury last month.
Goobinator, fourth in last season’s Cesarewitch, is a previous C&D winner. He’s 4lb above his last winning mark but his run in the Cesarewitch suggests he’s on a competitive enough mark.
2:35 – Cazoo Silver Bowl Handicap (Class 2)
Mighty Ulysses’s comfortable success at Newmarket 8-days ago suggested that he could be a Group horse in the making. He’s open to plenty of improvement and holds an entry in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He will be tough to beat with Benoit De La Sayette taking 5lb off the top-weights back. However, he’s plenty short enough in the betting at a best priced 13/8.
Trainer Clive Cox & jockey David Probert combined to win this 2018 and they could do so again here with Whoputfiftyinyou. The colt made it 3-3 when making a winning handicap debut at Newbury last month. He’s up 5lb for that success but he’s got the scope to do better for the step up to a mile.
Outgate is one of the more exposed horses among the ten runners but there was plenty to like about his recent Chester success. That was a career best by the colt and although he’s been raised 5lb for that win another big performance seems likely.
3:10 – Cazoo Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Clive Cox saddled Harry Angel to win in 2017 and he’s got two big contenders in this year’s field with Caturra & Wings Of War.
Caturra last season’s Group 2 Flying Childers winner made a good seasonal return, under a penalty, when ¾-length 2nd of 11 at Chantilly last month. Not the biggest juvenile, his reappearance effort showed he had trained on from two to three. The pick of Adam Kirby which suggests he’s the stable pick. Wings Of War was giving one of today’s rivals Go Bears Go 4lb when a 4-length 4th of 4 at Ascot last time. It won’t be easy to reverse form with that one but he does get the first time cheekpieces today and may have needed the run more than Go Bear Go did.
3:45 – Cazoo Temple Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Winter Power doesn’t have to carry a penalty for her win in last season’s Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York. She has 7lb in hand of her nearest rival Came From The Dark on RPR’s and will take the beating if she can reproduce her York form here on her seasonal return.
Last Crusader looked much improved for his first start at 5fwhen winning a Listed race at York last week. The 3-year-old is unexposed over the trip and he won’t be far away if reproducing his York performance.
Came From The Dark was bitterly disappointing in the Palace House Stakes on his seasonal return. A previous three-time course, I’m happy forgive him his Newmarket run and he’s my pick against the favourite.
Twilight Calls finished well head of Came From The Dark in the Palace House Stakes. He’s improving with racing and could yet prove up to winning in Group company. I can see him going well here provided the ground is good or quicker.
Goodwood
1:45 – William Hill Festival Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
Alotaibi proved that he handled Goodwood’s undulations when a neck 2nd of 8 over C&D on his handicap debut three weeks ago. He’s been nudged up 1lb for that effort and looks capable of winning in handicap company. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained. If he’s as effective on soft ground as good to firm he won’t be far away.
Evocative Spark has been hit by a 12lb hike in the weights after an impressive 5 ½ length win at Beverley last month. He’s not out of this despite the weight rise but is another who will be racing on softer ground than last time.
No issues with soft ground for Gisburn who’s two career wins have come with soft in the going description. First run since showing improved form to win on his nursery debut at Newbury in October (soft). He’s got an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with but the top-weight has the scope to progress further as 3-year-old.
York
2:55 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Alligator Alley was a highly encouraging 3 ½ length 4th of 13 to Fine Wine over C&D last week. There are races to be won with the 5-year-old this season who looks on a competitive mark.
Look Out Louis prominent style of racingshould be well suited to the track and he posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Chester last time. He’s up 4lb for his latest win but is going the right way.
Michael Dods won this 12 months ago with Pendleton and he saddles Jawwaal and Sir Titus. Jawwaal ran better than his 8 ½ length 10th of 13 to Fine Wine here last week suggests. He needed the run on his seasonal return and the forecast strong pace will suit the 7-year-old who is on a handy mark. Sir Titus ran with promise on his stable debut when a neck 2nd of 4 at Redcar 5-days ago. He’s on a good mark and can be placed to win a race or two. This a much better race than last time and he may prefer more ease in the ground but can give a good account given his present form. The drying ground just points me towards Jawwaal here.
The unreliable Sunday Sovereign is more than capable of a good run if on a going day but he would prefer more cut in the ground. The same comment applies to C&D winner Illusionist who’s three best RPR’s have come on soft.
Betting Advice:
Haydock
2:00 – 1pt win – Goobinator – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Coral and 0.5pts each way Merveillo – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:35 – 1pt win – Whoputfiftyinyou and 1pt win – Outgate – 11/1 @ Bet365
3:10 – 1pt win – Caturra – 9/1 @ Bet365
3:45 – 1pt win – Came From The Dark – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Goodwood
1:45 – 1pt win – Gisburn – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
York
2:55 – 1pt win – Jawwaal – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Look Out Louis – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John