Hi all,
An excellent Saturday of racing see’s the return of one of the exciting Baaeed in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes (3.20) at Newbury. Last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner, who beat Palace Pier in that race, hasn’t lost in six starts but he does face several good rivals in Group 1 winning filly Alcohol Free and last season’s 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth.
The supporting races on a seven race Newbury card include the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (2.10) and the Listed Carnarvon Stakes (1:35). There’s also the Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (4.30) which Dancing Rain finished runner-up in 2011, before going to win the Epsom Oaks. The hot favourite is like to be Nashwa who made a winning seasonal return at Haydock last month and a win here could see her book her place at Epsom.
There’s also Flat action at Newmarket, Thirsk, Doncaster and on the all-weather at Chelmsford. Bangor and Uttoxeter complete the action in Britain. Across the Irish Sea there is a flat card at Navan and a jumps card at Wexford.
The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Newbury and Newmarket on a seven race programme.
Newbury
1:35 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Hierarchy’s best juvenile form came over C&D when he finished a head 2nd of 9 in the Group 3 Mill Reef Stakes and he made a perfectly respectable seasonal return at Ascot last month. He’s got each way claims here as has Sam Maximus who’s best 2-year-old form came when finishing a ½ length 3rd of 11 to Lusail in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket. The one they both must beat though is the progressive Tiber Flow who will take the beating if reproducing his high-class all-weather form on his turf debut The colt hold a Group 1 Commonwealth Cup so is clearly highly regarded by trainer William Haggas.
2:10 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
An Intriguing, renewal of the race with two Group 1 winners making their seasonal returns but they have their Group 1 penalties to give away. Scope won the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp on last start of 2021 campaign. He must concede weight to his rivals here and maybe better for the run and a longer trip. Eshaada won Listed race here (1m 2f) last spring and ended last season with an improved success in the Group 1 Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes at Ascot in October. Lightly raced just the five starts, she has the scope do better as 4-year-old but the concern would be the drying ground on her seasonal reappearance, both last season’s wins came on good to soft & soft going. Ilaraab has some good form at the track, including two wins, the latest of them coming over C&D in the Group 3 St Simon Stakes last October. Likely needed the run when an encouraging 2 ¼ length 4th of 7 to Max Vega in John Porter Stakes over C&D last month. Foxes Tales made a sound reappearance when 2nd of 3 to Mostahdaf in Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last time. He gets weight from his main rivals and and finished a length one place in front of Ilaraab here in a Group 3 last September
2:45 – BetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Normally an informative 3-year-old only handicap and it looks a hot renewal. Israr shaped well when a 2-length 3rd of 7 to Educator at Newmarket on handicap debut on his seasonal return. There should be more to come from the colt this season who can win races off his present mark. Mr Big Stuff showed he had improved from two to three when a finishing a length 2nd of 9 to Al Qareem on handicap debut at Nottingham. He’s up 3lb but the winner won a handicap at York yesterday so the form looks strong. Red Vineyard beat Al Qareem on his handicap debut at Sandown last month. The runner-up has won twice since and although he’s 5lb higher here remains on a competitive mark and is lightly raced enough to think he’s capable of more improvement. He retuned to action looking better than ever when winning at Doncaster 22-days ago. There was plenty to like about the way he dug when challenged to prevail that day, He’s be raised 3lb and races in a deeper race here but should continue to gibe a good account with Silvestre De Sousa who is 10 winners from 25 bets 40% +20.05 when combining with trainer Richard Fahey.
3:20 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Baaeed is the most exciting older horse in training. He’s top on Official Ratings (OR) and He has the potential to rate even higher still this season. Unbeaten on all six careers starts connections will be disappointed if he can’t maintain his unbeaten record here on his seasonal return. Both Mother Earth and Alcohol Free have race fitness on their side, The former returned to winning ways in a Group 3 at the Curragh and looks set for another good season. She does have 3 ¼ lengths to find with Baaeed on their running in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Alcohol Free ran below form on her seasonal return at Sandown. The hood she wore last time for the first time has been dispensed with today and it’s too early to write off last year’s Sussex Stakes winner. Real World didn’t take to the dirt on his last two starts in Meydan. A big improver on turf last season winning the Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) at Royal Ascot and ending the season with a Group 2 success at Longchamp. He’s 5-5 on turf and although he’s got 7lb to find with Baaeed on OR’s he can’t be totally ruled out on ground that will suit. The 5-year-old will surely land a Group 1 this season.
Newmarket
There are three races from Newmarket being covered live on ITV this afternoon and it’s the two Class 2 handicaps that interest me most.
2:25 – TRU7 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Pocket The Profit and Auditor finished 5th & 7th at Chester last time. Neither were seen to best advantage, the first named wasn’t well drawn and didn’t seem to handle the track. He’s better than that run but may need softer ground than is likely today. Auditor’s best form has come on quick turf so he wouldn’t really have enjoyed the ground at Chester and was another not well drawn that day. He’s better judged by his handicap debut run at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance. Romantic Time shouldn’t be judged to harshly on her last of 12 in a Chelmsford Listed race 16-days ago as she was hampered and stumbled 1f out before being eased down. Better can be expected from her but she’s vulnerable to better handicapped rivals. Haymaker won here last time over 7f. He doesn’t lack pace so the drop back to 6f shouldn’t inconvenience him. He’s up 6lb for his latest success but Harry Davies takes off a handy 7lb which negates his rise in the weights. Harry Three has shown he handles the track, placing in big field handicaps over C&D on his last two starts. He ticks the boxes marked going, course & distance and won’t be far away f reproducing his latest performance.
3:00 – Birketts LLP Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Natural Path ran well on Bahrain over the winter. He’s just 2lb higher than when winning at Yarmouth last September and has each way claims here. Quintillus finished 1 length 3rd of 29 in the Briitannia Handicap at Roya; Ascot before going onto win here on the July Course, off 2lb lower. Down the field on his only start in a Listed contest Meydan, He’s clearly got ability but looked a tricky ride when winning last season. Wizard D’Amour, hails from the very much inform Karl Burke yard. A winner at Catterick two starts back. The market expected him to follow up over C&D but he found Shine So Bright 1 length to strong at the finish. The winner is 2lb worse off today but he was ending a long losing run that day and had a bit in hand at the line. Whether he will be in the same form today isn’t certain and the consistent Wizard D’Amour is more likely to give his running.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
2:45 – 1pt win – Red Vineyard – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Wootton’Sun – 18/1 @ Ladbrokes
3:20 – 1pt win – Real World – 8/1 @ Bet365
Newmarket
2:25 – 1pt win – Harry Three – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Auditor – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – 1pt win – Natural Path – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John