Hi all,
Morning all,
All things York today. It’s day two at York’s Dante Festival which looks set to provide more Derby clues with the latest running of the Dante Stakes (3.35). Last year’s race was won by the eventual Derby third Hurricane Lane and this renewal looks strong.
The Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (2.25) and the Listed Westow Stakes (4.10) make up an interesting seven-race card.
Inside today’s main piece I preview the best of today’s action at the track with once again the handicaps offering the best prospect for value bets.
York Dante Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Raasel returned to winning ways at Goodwood last month. He’s now won 6 of his last 7 starts and although he’s been raised 7lb for his latest win he might not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Plenty of old favourite’s among the thirteen runners. You can never rule out a Michael Dods sprinter on the Knavesmire as we saw here yesterday and he runs Jawwaal here. The 7-year-old has yet to win here after seven runs at the track but he’s put up several good performances. Seasonal reappearance here but he did win first time up in 2020 so the trainer can get him to win off a layoff. He’s suited by a strong pace which he should get here and must be high on the shortlist.
Others on the shortlist include course specialist Copper Knight and Alligator Alley. The latter won a C&D Listed race in 2019 as juvenile when trained by Joseph O’Brien. Now with David O’Meara he missed the whole of 2021 but made a promising stable debut when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 6 at Wolverhampton in March. Yesterday’s Duke Of York Stakes winner was second so the form got a big boost. That was the 5-year-old’s first start since gelding & breathing operations. A mark of 95 looks workable and he’s in the mix.
2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Just the six fillies and mares go to post. It’s an intriguing enough race and you can’t dismiss any of them.
The market is headed by the Ger Lyons trained Thunder Kiss. The 5-year-old won the Munster Oaks at Cork last season and ended the campaign with a success in a Listed race at Naas. Looked as good as ever when winning a Listed race at Cork last month. She stays 1m 4f well but won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to an extended 1m 2f.
Ville De Grace an improving filly last season, almost made a winning return to action when going down by a nose in a Group 2 at Newmarket 11-days ago. The return to 1m 2f will suit her and she’s a got a big chance. Stablemate Noon Star finished in the runner-up in last season’s Musidora over C&D. She was only having her second start since the Musidora. When winning the Nottinghamshire Oaks 16-days ago on her first start for 10 months. Lightly raced she’s open to further improvement.
Forbearance and Aristia both won Listed races here last year. The latter over C&D and the former over 1m 4f. Both make their seasonal returns and are not out of this if fit enough.
3:00 – Paddy Power Hambleton Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Trais Fluors isn’t the easiest horse to win with and needs all the cards to fall right. They didn’t last time in the Thirsk Hunt Cup where he didn’t get any sort of run in the straight before finishing a 3-length 10th of 15. He’s down to a winning mark.
Isla Kai caught the eye on his seasonal reappearance when finishing a 1 length 4th of 17 in the Spring Cup at Newbury last month. He will be sharper today and he ran a cracker over C&D when ½ length 2nd of 14 last August. A progressive handicapper as 3-year-old he looks the sort to continue to be competitive in mile handicaps this summer. Stall 15 isn’t ideal for a prominent racer but I still think he can go close.
Brunch can normally be relied upon to run his race in these big field mile handicaps. He won twice here in 2020, including one over C&D, and he finished a neck 2nd of 14 in last year’s race, albeit off a 3lb lower mark. Tough ask off top- weight but I can see him going close.
What’s The Story won this race in 2019 and followed up in a valuable C&D handicap at the Ebor Festival that season. That remains the 8-year-old’s last win but he’s dropped down to a winnable mark. He finished a 3 ½ length 5th of 14 and would have finished a bit closer if he had got a clearer run inside the final furlong. He’s 9lb lower than 12 months ago and will be suited by the good ground and likely strong pace.
Cruyff Turn showed he goes well over C&D when winning a valuable handicap at last year’s Ebor Festival. He’s run respectably on both starts this season and was only beaten 2 lengths into 7th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time. The quicker the ground the better for him and given he’s only 2lb above his last winning mark he looks capable of a good run. Has a good draw in stall 1 for a front runner.
3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
The Gosden yard won this in 2015 with Golden Horn who went onto Derby success at Epsom. They saddle recent Leicester scorer Magisterial. The son Frankel deserves his chance in a Derby Trial and looks capable of more progress.
There has been plenty of support in the Derby ante post betting for Desert Crown. The colt who won his sole juvenile start at Nottingham, is now a best priced 6/1 for Epsom. The colt should do well over middle distance’s as 3-year-old. So, it will be interesting to see how well he’s done physically over the winter.
El Bodegon who beat Stone Age in what now looks strong form in last season’s Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, must prove he’s as effective on a sound surface as he is testing ground. If he is then he’s a major player.
The all-conquering Aidan O’Brien stable brings over Bluegrass who finished 5 ½ length 4th of 9 to another Derby hopeful in Piz Badile in Ballysax Stakes. He’s been steadily progressive and could step up significantly for his Leopardstown return.
Royal Patronage who won the Group 2 Royal Lodge as juvenile was a 6 ¼ lengths 8th of 15 to Coroebus in 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal return. He’s bred to improve for middle distances and can’t be discounted here.
Verdict: This year’s Dante has the makings of a good race. Indeed, it could prove to be this season’s key Derby Trial. El Bodegon and Royal Patronage brings high class juvenile form into the race and they are up against potential improvers in Magisterial, Bluegrass and the exciting Desert Crown.
4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Aidan O’Brien brings over King Of Bavaria. A winner of both his juvenile starts he shaped with plenty of encouragement when a 4 ¼ length 4th of 7 in Listed race at Navan on his return to the track last month. He remains capable of improvement as 3-year-old.
Boonie a useful juvenile, finished third in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, made a winning seasonal reappearance at Nottingham. It was a career best on RPR’s that day from him. Granted he needs to improve again to win here but it’s possible he can.
Project Dante came to hand early as a juvenile winning on his racecourse debut here 12 months ago before a strong finishing ¼ length 3rd of 14 in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not in the same form on two subsequent starts but he’s had wind operation since and given his name you would think he’s been primed for this.
Guilded has high class juvenile form to her name and she gets the 5lb filly’s allowance which brings her firmly into contention. She’s doesn’t have the potential upside of the other three mentioned but she has had a recent run at Chantilly which should have blown the cobwebs away and her trainer Karl Burke has his horses in good form.
5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Just the 8 runners for this marathon but it remains a competitive contest nonetheless. Ahorsewithnoname is sure to be popular after her recent success at Newbury. Runner-up in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival she’s hasn’t had many starts on the level and although the handicapper has raised her 6lb for her latest win she idled in the closing stages and there should be more to come from her on the flat.
Master Milliner was 8 ½ lengths behind Ahorsewithnoname at Newbury. He will do well to beat the mare even on 6lb better terms but he may have needed the run that day and he is 2-2 over C&D.
Ravenscraig Castle was a progressive 3-year-old handicapper last season winning at Carlisle and Ayr before finishing a ½ length 3rd of 22 in the Melrose Handicap here last August. Plenty to like about the 4-year-old’s Ripon reappearance run when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 6 last time. Unexposed over 2m + and is suited to a sound surface.
Frankenstella was 4th of 11 in last year’s race before going on to win at Haydock, off 4lb lower. First run for almost 12 months which makes it a tough ask for the mare but she is a previous C&D winner and the John Quinn yard is great form.
Caldwell put in a career best effort on the level when running out a decisive winner of a Kempton handicap last month. He’s got an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with in a better race for his return to the turf. However, he was racing at 2m for the first time on the level last time so is unexposed over the distance. There doesn’t look to be much pace in the race so an emphasis on speed will suit. Yard had the runner-up in last year’s race.
Betting Advice:
York
1:50 – 1pt win – Jawwaal – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Alligator Alley – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – 1pt win – What’s The Story – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Brunch – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – 1pt win – Project Dante – 7/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – 1pt win – Caldwell – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John