Hi all,
It was a tough Saturday but Donkey Years win at Punchestown saved the day. It’s a fourth successive month of profit for the service and considering we had a fair few near misses it would have been an even better month. Taking advantage of early prices and BOG means the service goes into May with over 100pts profit for the year so far. It won’t be easy to make it five profitable months on the trot but I will be giving it my best shot.
It’s the final day of Newmarket’s Guineas Festival being the first fillies’ classic the Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3.40). Tenebrism, trained by Aidan O’Brien, last season’s Cheveley Park winner heads the betting. However, O’Brien also saddles the potentially smart Tuesday. The O’Brien pair face 12 rivals who include Alpha Centauri’s full sister Discoveries and a couple of French runners in Malavath and Zellie add further spice to the mix. There’s a decent supporting card which includes The Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (2.25) and Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes (3.00).
ITV are covering four races live from Newmarket on Sunday afternoon and one from Salisbury & Hamilton as part of a six-race programme.
After yesterday, it’s a much quieter on the fronting front. Inside today’s preview I have looked at the four Newmarket races live on ITV.
Newmarket
1:50 – Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Valley Forge won the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival last August and wasn’t disgraced when a 2-length 3rd of 6 in a more tactical race at Haydock the following month. His improved from came on quick ground so underfoot conditions will suit on his return to action.
Cemhaan couldn’t have been more impressive in winning at Salisbury 11-days ago. He didn’t get the clearest of runs 2f out that day and had to be switched inside to get a clear run. Not that it mattered as he was far too good for his five rivals. The 5lb penalty shouldn’t stop him but he’s up a couple of notches in class today.
Dark Jedi showed the benefit of his Doncaster seasonal reappearance when finishing a 3 ¾ length second of 14 to Enemy at Musselburgh last time. He’s clearly in good heart and although he might prefer a bit of ease in the ground, he seemed to handle good to firm well enough when 3rd of 15 at York last August.
2:25 – Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f
Crenelle really should have made a winning racecourse debut at Southwell but a combination of greenness and not getting the clearest of runs 1f did for her and she had to settle for a close-up third. Made no mistake 11-days later when winning a maiden here over a mile. She should be suited by a step up to 1m 2f. The yard has won this five times since 2014 and Crenelle has a good chance of making it six. With The Moonlight has some good juvenile form and can’t be ruled out given she hails from the Charlie Appleby yard. Peripatetic built on her racecourse debut second when winning at Newcastle in October. The daughter of Ulysses is bred to be smart and should progress further as a 3-year-old and could be open to winning this.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 1f
Ville De Grace ended last season in great from winning a Listed race at Yarmouth and a Group 3 here over 1m 2f. Although she drops back 1f in trip she looks the sort to do even better as a 4-year-old. Lilac Road finished ½ length runner-up to Ville De Grace at Newmarket on her final start of 2021 and is another capable of a big run. Ebaiyra twice a Group 2 winner on France is another dropping back in trip today. Her form is solid and she’s got race fitness on her side compared to the other two fillies. Dreamloper ended last season finishing a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 12 to Saffron Beach in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. She’s got be respected on that run and could do better as a 4-year-old but I fancy that we haven’t seen the best of Ville De Grace.
3:35 – Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
I’m not convinced that favourite Tenebrism will stay the mile a s strongly as some of her rivals and interesting that Aidan O’Brien has opted to run the highly promising Tuesday. A full sister to 2016 Guineas winner Minding is bred to win a classic and she open to any amount of improvement on just her third career start. Tuesday was beaten just a short head by Discoveries on her juvenile racecourse debut. Discoveries improved to win the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes on her final juvenile start. A full sister to the smart Alpha Centauri she’s bred to be an even better 3-year-old than a juvenile. The French pair Malavath & Zellie had a high-class juvenile form with the latter winning the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. Malavath had Zellie back in second when the pair made their seasonal returns at Deauville and I fancy she can confirm form here. In an open looking race, you wouldn’t be totally surprised if the likes of Cachet, Wild Beauty and Mise En Scene won. With two of my ante post fancies Inspiral and Homeless Songs out of the race I’m left with just Discoveries. I’m hopeful she can win but I’m fearful of Tuesday.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – 1pt win – Dark Jedi – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Cemhaan – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt win – Peripatetic – 9/2 – Gen
3:35 – 1pt win – Discoveries – 6/1 @ Bet365
A busy period of racing continues with three days at Chester to look forward to starting on Wednesday.
Cheers
John