Hi all,
What a fantastic day’s sport and I fancy a fair few today across both Britain & Ireland. It’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas Day at Newmarket (3.40), where last year’s champion juvenile Native Trail faces The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt Luxembourg and Middle Park Stakes Winner Perfect Power in what could be an above average renewal of the first colt’s classic. Elsewhere on the card, there is the Group 3 Betfair Palace House Stakes (3.00) and several competitive looking handicaps
It’s the final day of the Punchestown festival with the feature races being the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle (4.25) and the Mares Champion Hurdle (3.50). In the juvenile race the first two in the Triumph Hurdle Vauban and Fil Dor renew rivalry. The Mares Hurdle see’s Epatante face eight rivals as she bids to follow up her recent win in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. There are also three competitive big field handicaps for punters to get stuck into.
Besides Newmarket and Punchestown there’s plenty other action today around Britain with good cards at Goodwood and Thirsk.
The ITV cameras are covering four races live from Newmarket and one each from Goodwood and Thirsk on a six-race programme this afternoon.
Newmarket
The Qipco 2000 Guineas (3:40) is the day’s big race. I tipped up Native Trail & Luxembourg at double figure odds ante post for the first colt’s classic. I’m happy with those two and won’t be adding to my bets in the race.
I will be disappointed if Native Trail gets beat. He has the best form and even his draw in stall 15 looks a positive with most of the pace seemingly drawn middle to high.
For those looking for something each way at bigger odds. Recent course winner Eyedon is an improver as his Checkandchallenge who was an impressive winner on All-Weather Finals Day at Newcastle. He’s yet to race on turf but if he’s as good on the grass as the tapeta could get into the money.
1:50 – My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
This is a cracker of a 6f handicap with 20 runners set to go to post for this valuable prize with £51,540 on offer to the winner. I’m wary of anything drawn high which means I’m against the likes of Strike Red, Tarhib, First Folio and Final Song. The first named was unlucky in the run over C&D last time and will be suited by strongly run race. First Song finished a ½ length 2nd of 13 in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last March. A reproduction of that performance gives the mare a serious chance back in handicap company but stall 19 is a worry. Summerghand has been running without success in Meydan over the winter. However, he’s on a competitive mark for a return to handicap company and will like the quick ground. He won the Group 3 Abernant Stakes over C&D last April but stall 1 probably isn’t deal. Bickerstaffe is another with a possible tough draw in stall 16 but he could be capable of better as a 4-year-old. Has since moved to Roger Teal and did win first time up last season.
Asjad twice a winner when trained by Roger Varian. The 4-year-old made a winning stable debut for new trainer James Horton at Redcar 12-days ago. Slight concern about quick ground but he looks capable of going close under his 5lb penalty. Apollo One a useful juvenile put up his best performance last season when a neck 2nd of 17 on the July Course off today’s mark. Raatea was a big improver for the fitting of the hood on good or quicker ground in the second half of last season. Made a really encouraging seasonal return when a ½ length 3rd of 12 over C&D 18-days ago and must be respected again off the same mark today. Jumby rarely runs a bad race on the Rowley Course – form figures of 3113 – a progressive handicapper last season winning over C&D in May and here over 7f. Handled the step up to Group 3 company well enough when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 8 in the Abernant Stakes at the Craven Meeting. He should have come on for that run and is big contender from stall 12.
Verdict: You could pick ten here and still not find the winner. Raatea ran well on his reappearance over C&D and has plenty in his favour. Asjad made an impressive stable debut when winning at Redcar last time and is a winning contender. Jumby’s course form means he always needs respecting here.
2:25 – Betfair Daily Rewards Suffolk Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f
Fast Medicine returned from a winter break looking much improved when winning at Nottingham two weeks ago. This is a deeper race but he’s got to be respected under a 5lb penalty. Forest Falcon a winner at Yarmouth on final start last season returned to action from a 7-month absence with a good 2 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Chelmsford 15-days ago. Prominent racers are usually favoured here so I can see the 4-year-old going well. Anythingtoday hasn’t been the easiest to win with but trainer George Boughey didn’t manage to get him to win on first two starts on switching to the trainer. He’s down to 4lb below his last winning mark so is very much in the mix.
Movin Time won here over 1m 2f on his seasonal reappearance last season. Not disgraced in better company on two subsequent starts and has been gelded since his last start. Back in handicap company and could do better as a 4-year-old. A useful apprentice takes off 7lb of the top-weights back. Dhahabi looked useful on three juvenile starts. He missed the whole of last season and has a 567-day absence to overcome but the colt remains with potential. Turntable is 2-3 here, including C&D on final start of 2021. Likes to come off a strong pace and goes well on a sound surface. Trainer Chris Wall’s runners have started off in good form and Turntable could get into the places granted a good gallop.
Verdict: It’s hard to know how much ability of Dhahabi’s old ability remains after his long absence. There could be more to come from Movin Time as a 4-year-old. Fast Medicine won nicely at Nottingham and can go close under his penalty. Forest Falcon will be sharper for his recent reappearance and won’t be far away.
3:00 – Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
Twilight Calls is plenty short enough at 3/1 given he’s got plenty to find on official ratings. However, there was plenty to like about his comfortable success in a C&D handicap here on his seasonal return. The gelding operation looks to have been a big success. Fast ground and five furlongs look his optimum conditions and could prove he’s up to Group company as a 4-year-old. His biggest rival looks to be Come From The Dark. The 6-year-old didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out when a strong finishing neck 2nd in this race last year. Won his only subsequent start last season in a Group 3 at Sandown. Had a setback after that which meant he missed the rest of last season. Will need them to go hard up front and if they do, he can go one better than last year. Hurricane Ivor must give away 3lb to his rivals due to his win in Newbury Group 3 last September. He improved through last season and looks set for a good season in pattern company.
Verdict: Last year’s runner-up Come From the Dark has a good chance of going one better if ready to roll after a near 10 month absence. However, the progressive Twilight Calls may well use his race fitness to his advantage.
Thirsk
2:05 – Fitzdares Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Another big race handicap which you can watch live on ITV. Even with a strong pace you don’t want to be to far back around here. Of the fifteen runners there are five of interest. Dubai Love was only beaten a length when 3rd of 10 in Group 2 fillies only race in Meydan in February. Not at that level of form on two subsequent starts but she’s respected in the first time cheekpieces and looks on a good mark if at her best. Trais Fluours hails from last year’s winning stable. Not disgraced on his seasonal return when a 3 ½ length 7th of 17 in the Spring Cup at Newbury. A big contender with that run under his belt. Not the easiest to win with as his career record suggests but he likes a sound surface and has dropped down to a good weight, now 5lb below his last winning mark.
Astro King was a ¾ length 3rd of 15 in last year’s race before beating all but the well handicapped Real World in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Put in a career best when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 18 to Cruyff Turn at York last August. A mile and sound surface really suit the 5-year-old who looks a solid favourite. Cruyff Turn is another who’s optimum conditions are mile, on a sound surface. He’s 2lb higher than when winning at the Ebor Festival but made a highly satisfactory seasonal return when a 4 ¼ length 6th of 9 in the mile handicap at Haydock on Saturday. Like most of his yards runners he will better for his seasonal return. Likes to make the running so will need to get across from stall 9 which won’t be easy. Starshiba is having his first start for new connections and starts off on what looks a winnable mark. Best performance in 2021 came when a short head 2nd of 11 at Goodwood (7f) last June. He’s now 5lb lower and will be placed to win races but they are more likely to come over 7f.
Verdict: Last year’s thirdAstro King goes well fresh is a worthy market leader. If Cruyff Turn can get to the front from stall 9 he’s a big player with the ground in his favour. Dubai Love is looks handily weighted on her best form in the first time cheekpieces. Starshiba starts the season on a good mark which can be exploited sooner rather than later.
Punchestown
Some rain is forecast for the final day of the Punchestown Festival.
3:10 – Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase – 3m 7f
The Dabbler likes a sound surface and although he’s failed to complete on his last two starts, he’s on a workable mark and showed he stayed 3m 5f when a 3-length 2nd of 11 to Smoking Gun in November. Has a big performance in him if the ground doesn’t ease to much before post time.
Anibale Fly was bought down at the third in the Grand National on his last start. The 12-year-old did finish a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 19 to Mister Fogpatches in this race last year. He’s now 5lb lower. Granted he’s not the horse he once but he’s become a well-handicapped staying chaser who can go well.
4:25 – Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m
Plenty in with a chance in this 14-runner valuable handicap chase. The ones I like most are in no particular order: Phoenix Way, Ten Ten, Duc De Beauchene, Donkey Years and West Cork Wildway. The first four all run in the colours of JP McManus.
Phoenix Way got a confident ride from jockey Kevin Brogan to win at Ascot (2m 5f) two starts back before falling at the third at Kempton last time. Probably stays 3m and is just 4lb above his last winning mark. Harry Fry yard had one go close on Thursday.
Ten Ten was a neck 2nd of 20 in this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old has had a light campaign this season and this has likely been the plan again. He’s just 1lb higher than last year and the yard had a winner here on Thursday.
Owners retained jockey Mark Walsh deserts Ten ten though for Donkey Years. The 8-year-old has been knocking on the door in handicap chase, placing on his last three starts and he posted a career best on RPR’s when a ¾ length 2nd of 14 at Fairyhouse 12-days ago. Doesn’t always find as much at the finish so the application of the first time cheekpieces will hopefully help.
Duc De Beauchene made it 2-7 over fences when winning at Newbury 29-days ago. Proved he stays an extended 2m 6f at Newbury but whether he’ll stay 3m is open to question. He’s only 2lb higher than last time though and should remain competitive.
West Cork Wildway a useful handicap hurdler seems to have taken well enough to fences this season. He made all to win a Thurles beginners chase on his second start over the larger obstacles in November. Ran as well as could be expected when 4th of 8 here in a hot Grade 3 chase last time. Step up to 3m over fences will suit, stayed 3m over hurdles and won two points over the trip. One of the least experienced in the field over fences but is open to further improvement with the first time cheekpieces an interesting addition.
5:30 – Tote Always SP Or Better Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 3f
I doubt there will be a more competitive handicap today than this 25-runner contest.
Comprond finished a 10 ½ length 4th of 23 in the Coral Cup last time. Given he goes well on a sound surface the rain softened ground at Cheltenham wouldn’t have suited that day. Take into consideration the ground it was a good effort from the 6-year-old. Connections will be hoping the rain doesn’t scupper in chance again.
Fastorslow was a short head runner-up in the Coral Cup. That was a clear personal best from the 6-year-old who is lightly raced and capable of more improvement. Unlike Comprond he’s likely to appreciate the forecast rain.
Get My Drift went very close here in a novice hurdle last years festival. The 6-year-old comes into the race after a light campaign, just the three starts, and put in a solid effort when 9-length 3rd of 18 on his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown over Christmas. Not so good last time but the way he travelled on his handicap debut suggests he’s on a workable mark if bouncing back to his best. Stamina beyond 2m taken on trust and may want easier ground.
La Prima Donna, Heia and He’s Hardy Bloke were separated by 2 ¾ lengths when finishing 2nd, 3rd & 4th respectively in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle (2m) two weeks ago. The first two named are up 4lb and the He’s A Hardy Bloke is up 2lb. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. All three could be suited by the step up to 2m 3f and must be high on the shortlist.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – 1pt win – Jumby – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Raatea – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt win – Forest Falcon – 8/1 @ Bet365
Thirsk
2:05 – 1pt win – Cruyff Turn – 9/1 @Bet365 and 1pt win – Dubai Love – 10/1 @Bet365
Punchestown
3:10 – 1pt win – Anibale Fly – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:25 – 1pt win – Donkey Years – 7/1 @Bet365 and 0.5pts each way – Ten Ten – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
5:30 – 1pt win – La Prima Donna – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Heia – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John