Hi all,
Not the best of days for punting at the Punchestown Festival with just the one handicap on an eight-race card. There are two Grade 1’s. In the first its all about Honeysuckle who is long odds on to retain her Punchestown Champion Hurdle crown (5.25). The second Grade 1 is the Champion Novice Hurdle (6.00), where Cheltenham Festival winner State Man takes on the improving Flame Bearer.
The Guineas festival also gets away at Newmarket. Small fields are the order of the day with just 42 runners declared for a seven-race card. Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir is likely to go off a short-priced favourite for the day’s feature race the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes (3.35). The supporting card also includes two Listed contests.
Flat racing returns to Goodwood this afternoon with the feature race being the Listed British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes (3.15). There are also two decent sized handicaps on a seven-race card.
Punchestown
4:15 – EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 5f
Not for the first time Rightplacerightime threw away what looked a winning opportunity with another poor jumping performance at Fairyhouse last time. He’s on a winnable mark for sure but you just can’t trust him on the jumping front.
Fighter Allen runners-up top Stattler on his chase debut before finishing well behind Galopin Des Champs in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Jumped well but didn’t have to be at his best to win at Tramore 19-days ago. Unexposed over fences and looks on a decent mark for his handicap chase debut.
French Dynamite won a beginners chase here in November before being outclassed in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown, a race Fighter Allen finished 4th. He returned to winning ways when winning a Grade 3 at Thurles last month. Good ground suits and he looks on a workable mark for his first start in handicap chase company.
Birchdale got off the mark at the 9th attempt over fences when winning a valuable handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival over around today’s trip. Now 8lb higher but he seemed to have a bit in hand that day and looks set for another good run.
Lieutenant Command was in the process of running a big race, just in front, when making a mistake and unseating his rider at Naas last time. Likely would have gone close if he had stood up and can race off the same mark here.
Bold Emperor has returned from a winter break in good form finishing runner-up twice at Fairyhouse. Never looked like he would catch Mt Leinster last time but that was over an extended 2m and a return to today’s longer distance should suit. That said he’s 12lb out of the handicap although Mikey O’Connor does take off 5lb.
Verdict: Just two trainers: Willie Mullins & Jessica Harrington have won this race since 2013. The latter doesn’t have a runner in this year’s race but Mullins had five of the fifteen runners. The pick of his looks to be Fighter Allen. Birchdale, French Dynamite and Lieutenant Command all have claims though.
4:50 – Hanlon Concrete Irish EBF Glencarraig Lady Francis Flood Mares Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 5f
Elimay had to dig to deep to win the Mares Chase at Cheltenham last time. Scarlet And Dove was ¾ length back in third that day but she was giving the winner 3lb so theoretically there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.
6:00 – Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 3 ½ f
State Man looked a potential Grade 1 hurdler when running out a decisive winner of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. Others have arguably better form but it’s a about real potential with the 5-year-old
Three Stripe Life runner-up to Might Potter and Sir Gerhard this season got his head in front for the first time in Grade 1 company when winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree.
Flame Bearer has won last two starts in Grade 2 company and bids for a four-timer today. Very much an improving novice hurdler who got his jockey out of trouble when winning at Fairyhouse last time. First run beyond 2m asks another question but I think it could bring out more progress in him.
Given the lack of runners at Newmarket there aren’t many decent bigger priced betting opportunities today so I’m looking to Goodwood which has slightly better sized fields.
Goodwood
2:40 – William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Live In The Moment ran three times in Meydan over the winter. A useful sprinter last Summer finishing a ¾ 2nd of 22 in a valuable handicap at York (5 ½ f) and then runner-up in a Listed race at Doncaster. A reproduction of his York run would see him go close but stall 1 isn’t ideal.
Stone of Destiny who has been given a chance by the handicapper, 8 lb below the mark he finished third in last season’s Epsom Dash, and will be better for his recent his recent run at Newmarket.
Atalanta’s Boy, can miss the start and is a bit quirky but he’s a real Goodwood specialist with 5 wins from 8 starts. One of his rare poor starts here outside a big field came on final start of last season on soft ground. First start for 201-days but his form figures when racing between 121 to 365-days since his last start are 3411. This is his first start over 5f and if not an inconvenienced by it should go well.
Another C&D winner is Raasel who ended last season in tremendous form being well placed to win his last five starts. A real 5f specialist he should be sharper for his recent 2 ½ length 5th of 11 to Zarzyni at Musselburgh 13-days ago. He shaped last time like a mark of 94 could be reachable.
3:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
There some good prize money for the Goodwood feature race with £31,191 on offer to the winner. Bartzella made all to win at Ascot on her third start last October. She could get an uncontested lead here and although she might prefer a bit more ease in the ground could be tough to peg back. Silence Please has to be respected on her first start since switching to the Andrew Balding yard. The mare won a Listed race on her seasonal return in 2020 and is the highest rated of these filly’s & mare’s. Looks capable of going well if ready to roll first time. Save A Forest won first time up last season and finished 4th in the Oaks. Won a Listed race on the July Course last summer before running well below par in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Very much in the mix on ground that should be fine.
3:50 – William Hill Play Responsibly Handicap (Class 3) – 6f
Chipstead was a progressive sprint handicapper in the second half of last season. Looked like the race was needed after a 7-month layoff when an encouraging 2 length 8th of 12 at Newmarket 17-days ago. This is slight drop-in class for the 4-year-old and if stall 2 isn’t an inconvenience should be in the mix.
Twilight Madness had Chipstead 3 ½ length behind in second when winning at Newmarket last July and meets that one on better terms here. The 4-year-old returned from 3-month absence with an excellent effort when a head second of 8 at Southwell last time. This is just his 10th career start so we might not have seen the best of him yet.
All Lamplighter’s three turf wins have come over C&D. He’s 3lb above his last winning mark but doesn’t have the best of records fresh. Still he must be respected back at his favourite track and will be suited by the forecast strong pace.
Betting Advice:
Punchestown
4:15 – 1pt win – French Dynamite – 13/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Lieutenant Command – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:00 – 1pt win – Flame Bearer – 4/1 – Gen
Goodwood
2:40 – 1pt win – Raasel – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John