Hi all,
A good first day at the Grand National Festival. Just need to maintain that over the next couple of days. It won’t be easy though as the three handicaps look highly competitive and have all attracted big fields.
I have previewed all seven of the Aintree races and my betting advice is at the end of my main piece.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2
1:45 – 20 Years Together, Alder Hey & Aintree Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
The market hadexpected Langer Dan (7/2 fav) to go one place better than 12 months earlier in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time but was bought down at the second. The forecast strong pace will suit this normally hold up horse and his chance is there for all to see,
Cobblers Dream continues to progressive with racing Up 8lb for his success in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle the patiently ridden 6-year-old made smooth headway 2 out and looked like he was coming to win the Martin Pipe when challenging at the last. He eventually finished a 1 ½ length 2nd of 23 to another improver in Banbridge. Up another 4lb but the improvement may not have ended just yet.
Speech Bubble missed a race at Newbury (ante post favourite) on Saturday due to good ground. The 7-year-old finished a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 6 to Love Envoi in a Grade 2 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Sandown last time. The winner has since gone onto boast that form when winning the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The mare is another who will be suited by the forecast pace on her handicap debut.
Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013 and he saddles four today. The two most likely to give him a fourth win are Balco Coastal & Fils Doudairies.
Balco Coastal a progressive novice hurdler looked on a lenient mark for his handicap hurdle in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. However, the 6-year-old resented the soft ground that. By no means guaranteed to stay 2m 4f but any drying ground is major positive to his chance.
Fils D’oudairies was backed to make a winning start for Nicky Henderson. Formerly with Joseph O’Brien and back over the smaller obstacles he travelled through the race like a nicely treated horse but was no match for a well-treated winner when a 4 ½ length 2nd of 11 to Unexpected Party at Ascot last time. Like his stablemate is high on the shortlist here.
Verdict: I’m a big fan of Cobblers Dream but I wonder if he had a hard race at Cheltenham. I find it hard to split the Henderson pair of Balco Coastal and Fils D’oudairies. Speech Bubble has classy novice hurdle from but a big field handicap does ask a different question of her.
2:20 – Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m ½ f
Jonbon a smart novice hurdler was no match for stablemate Constitution Hill in last months Supreme Novices Hurdle. Nothing of the winner’s calibre here and is clearly the one to beat.
First Street, a stablemate of Jonbon, continue his improvement when a 1¼ length 2nd of 26 to State Man in County Hurdle last time. Doesn’t have much to find on ratings with Jonbon and looks worth a try in Graded company. Decent chance if he didn’t have to hard a race at Cheltenham.
Willie Mullins brings over El Fabiolo who created a good impression when running out a 13-length winner of a Tramore maiden hurdle 97-days ago. It was heavy ground when he won last time so his effectiveness on a sounder surface is untested. Capable of a lot better though.
2:55 – (Mildmay) Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m 1f
Just the four runners for this Grade 1 but they do include Bravemansgame, who was withdrawn for his intended race (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival due to the rain softened ground. An excellent jumper of a fence, he’s well suited to a flat track and the better the ground the stronger his claims.
L’Homme Presse made it 5-5 over fences when winning last month’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. We haven’t seen the best of the 7-year-old yet and given the quality of his jumping he could well test Bravemansgame’s stamina for 3m 1f.
Ahoy Senor won the Grade 1 Hurdle here 12 months ago finished 3 ½ lengths behind L’Homme Presse last time. He did well to get as close as he did to the winner that day given his jumping wasn’t as good as the winners. This galloping track will suit and he’s another who hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Likely to get an easy here and won’t be far away if he jumps better than at Cheltenham.
3:30 – Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Fakir D’oudairies handled heavy ground when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last time. Last season’s easy winner missed the Ryanair Chase to come here. No problem with drying ground and he’s the one beat again.
Mister Fisher was a well beaten fourth in the Ascot Chase. However, he didn’t like the heavy ground. I have still to be convinced that he’s a Grade 1 chaser but the better ground is in his favour.
Funambule Sivola had Sceau Royal 2 lengths behind in second when winning the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury. The winner won’t get an uncontested lead like he did last time. I wouldn’t be surprised if the runner-up reversed placings here on his first start beyond 2m 1f. Hitman was a further 2 ¼ length back in third. The 6-year-ol shapes like the return up 2m 4f can bring out some more progress.
4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5f
The race of the day for me with a maximum field of 30 set to meet the starter. I have had ten on my shortlist since the start of the week.
Mac Tottie has been backed over the past couple of days so the big prices available early in the week are long gone. Won the Grand Sefton over C&D in November before falling at the Chair in the Becher Chase the following month. Can race off the same mark as when winning the Grand Sefton. Trainer Peter Bowen won this three times with Always Waining between 2010 & 2012.
The second, third and fourth in last year’s race reoppose. Runner-up Pink Eyed Pedro really took the National fences 12 months ago and is 2lb lower this time round. Recent form isn’t great but he didn’t come last year’s race in much form either.
Senior Citizen was a 12 ½ length third last year and finished a length behind Mac Tottie in the Grand Sefton earlier in the season. Now 4lb worse off with that one. Put in an encouraging prep for this when 3rd of 10 at Newbury last month. Capable of another bold show here with drying ground a positive.
Snugsborough Hall fourth 12 months ago has been running over hurdles this season without success but this has likely been the plan and better expected today.
Five Star Getaway was a disappointing 6/1 joint favourite at Kempton last time. He normally travels well and is a solid enough jumper of a fence. Two pound out of the handicap but can’t be totally ruled out given he’s trained by Christian Williams.
Palmers Hill looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Wetherby & Ascot at the end of 2021. Pulled up back at Ascot last time but he’s back from a 76-day break. Just the four starts over fences so could be capable of better. The good to soft ground suits and If he takes to the fences can go well.
Killer Clown is 8lb higher than when winning at Kempton last time. He’s going the right way and the likely strong pace will suit. One for the shortlist for sure. I just wonder whether he’s better going right-handed?
Mister Coffey was well fancied when finishing a 2 ½ length 2nd of 20 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. Has the size to handle the fences and given he’s only had four starts over fences maybe capable of more improvement. Must be high on the shortlist.
Foxy Jacks was a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 17 in a valuable 2m 5 ½ f handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival two starts back. Ran better than his 14th of 27 in the Ultima at Cheltenham suggests. He was still in contention when making a race ending mistake three out that day. Has a decent weight and has each-way claims.
Batcio is another with an each-way chance if he takes to the fences. Has been running consistently well without looking well handicapped. Goodish ground suits, as will the forecast strong pace and Adam Wedge is an interesting jockey booking for the 10-year-old.
Verdict: In a race where you can have three or four against the field. My three are C&D winner Mac Tottie, Senior Citizen and Palmers Hill.
4:40 – Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
This doesn’t look the highest quality Grade 1 and the fact that 14 are set to run suggests that is the case.
Banbridge maintained his improvement over hurdles when winning the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle last time. It was stamina that won him the day at Cheltenham and he should stay 3m.
Gelino Bello bounced back to winning ways when beating Peking Rose by 9 lengths at Newbury last month. Looks capable of better returned to 3m and must be respected.
Crystal Glory was the only one to give Hillcrest a race at Haydock last time. Respected on that form and today’s ground looks better for the 6-year-old than the heavy he ran on at Haydock.
Skytastic a winner of both his bumper starts and is 2-2 over hurdles. The 6-year-old handled the soft ground well enough when winning an Ascot novice last time. Trainer Sam Thomas told the Racing Post after his Ascot win “That’s not his ground by any stretch of the imagination and he learned a lot”. He’s progressive, should stay 3m and looks worth his place in Grade 1 company.
5:15 – Park Palace Ponies Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
A tricky seventeen runner puzzle concludes day two of the Aintree Grand National Festival.
Wizz Kid, trained by the inform Dr Richard Newland bids for the hat trick after wins at Catterick and Ludlow. Very useful on the flat when trained in Germany. Ground likely to suit and he’s open to further improvement. Could be on a lenient mark for his handicap debut and was well backed yesterday
Severance went close at Cheltenham two starts back and did best of those who raced up with the pace when a 5 ½ length 4th of 11 to Cormier in Morebattle Hurdle last time. No problem with drying ground and he remains on a winnable mark.
Richmond Lake was a 3-length 2nd of 7 to Jonbon at Haydock two starts back. Beaten when falling at the last in a Grade 2 at Kelso last time. Possibly didn’t stay the 2m 2f that day and the return to an extended two mile looks a good move.
Homme Public put in a personal best when winning at Newcastle last month. He seemed suited by the return to better ground last time. Up 8lb for that success and a couple of notches in class demands more from the 5-year-old but he does get the first time cheekpieces which could bring out further progress from him.
Albert’s Back is another to get the first time cheekpieces today. The 8-year-old seems to be slowly returning to form. He’s 4lb below his last winning mark and put in a clear seasonal best when a head 2nd of 6 at Wetherby last month. Not out of this if the headgear has the desired effect.
Irish raider Mandarin Monarch took advantage of a good mark when winning a Navan handicap hurdle last month. That was the 9-year-old’s first start for 11 months so it’s not out of the question that he could do better with that run under his belt and can’t be totally dismissed.
Verdict: The well handicapped Wizz Kid looks a big contender for an inform yard. Severance has had a wind-op since his last run and is on a competitive mark. Last time out winner Homme Public is interesting in the first time cheekpieces. Albert’s Back is tempting at big odds.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
1:45 – 1pt win – Balco Coastal – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fils D’oudairies – 9/1 @ Bet365
2:55 – 1pt win – Ahoy Senor – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:05 – 1pt win – Mac Tottie – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Senior Citizen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win Palmers Hill – 20/1 @ Bet365
5:15 – 1pt win – Severance – 15/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Homme Public – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John