Morning all.
The Aintree Grand National begins today. Besides the ‘big one’ there’s plenty more high-quality action over the three days to enjoy.
Today see’s four Grade 1 races. The Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase (1.45), Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (2.20), Betway Bowl Chase (2.55) and Betway Aintree Hurdle (3.30). There’s also a first sight of the National fences in the Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (4:05)
There are another four Grade 1 races on Friday’s seven race card. The Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (2.20), Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (2.55), Marsh Chase (3.30) and the Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (4.40). The big betting race of the day is the Grade 3 Topham Handicap Chase (4:05) over the National fences.
Besides the Grand National itself the Saturday card also includes another three Grade 1 contests. The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (2.25), Maghull Novices’ Chase (3.00) and JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (3.35).
Looking at the entries. I have to say the Grade 1 races don’t seem to have the strongest look to them and we could see some smallish fields. That said the field sizes for the handicap races should hold up.
Inside today’s preview I have had a look at the five races being covered live by ITV this afternoon although my main selections run in the handicap chase (4:40).
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1
It looks a decent enough days action on Merseyside with the likes of Pied Piper, Epatante, Zanahiyr and Cheltenham Festival winner Brazil all set to run this afternoon.
1:45 – SS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f
Pic D’Orhy should be favourite on ratings. However, the form of the Paul Nicholls and the prospect of softening round mean he’s bigger in the betting than expected.
The bookies early bird favourite is the Colin Tizzard trained War Lord. The 7-year-old has some smart from over fences and was a good 10 ¾ length 4th of 11 to Edwardstone in Arkle Chase last time. First run beyond two miles over the larger obstacles but stayed the trip over hurdles.
Erne River made it 2-2 since going chasing when winning a Wetherby novice chase. He looked a smart chasing prospect that day and although this is a step up in class has the potential to do better.
Millers Bank finished 3rd of 11 in last season’s Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. After two unseats he ran Pic D’Orhy to a length in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton. Now 5lb worse off with that one but not totally dismissed.
2:20 – Jewson Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Brazil Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time. He showed a good attitude to prevail that day and deserves his place in Grade 1 company.
Pied Piper was a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 12 to Vauban in Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. He’s only had three starts over hurdles and could be capable better. The pick on ratings but the form of the Gordon Elliott is a slight concern.
Petit Tonnerre looked an exciting prospect when making a winning debut for Jonjo O’Neill. He missed the Fred Winter where he was due to carry top-weight. Long term he has the physique to be the best of these but could still go close for a yard among the winners.
Fautinette won all three starts when trained in France. First run for Venetia Williams and this is big ask for the filly but interesting that connection have pitched her in her. All form in France on soft or worse.
2:55 – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f
Nine go to post for today’s feature race but it looks an interesting one the nonetheless with plenty in with a chance. Indeed, there’s just 3lb separating the top six horses on Timeform ratings.
Protektorat’s 17 ½ length 3rd of 11 to A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup is arguably the best piece of form on offer and he’s 2-2 here, including over C&D in December. Only 20-days since the Gold Cup but provided he didn’t have to hard a race there looks the one to beat.
Clan Des Obeaux won this year before going onto win a Grade 1 Punchestown. Not at his best on either start this season, including when runner-up in the King George VI at Kempton. He wore first time cheekpieces when successful 12 months ago and the first-time blinkers.
Conflated produced a career best when given a good ride by Davy Russell to win the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown two starts back. Ridden off the pace had made headway to challenge for second when coming down at the second last in the Ryanair Chase. He wouldn’t have beaten Allaho even if he hadn’t have come down that day but would likely have finished runner-up.
Eldorado Allen finished third in the Ryanair last time. Prior to that he had a below form Clan Des Obeaux 12 lengths behind when winning the Denman Chase at Newbury. The step back up in trip should suit the 8-year-old and his good jumping gives him a chance here.
Kemboy won tis two years ago. A ¾ length third in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but was well beaten by Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup last time.
3:30 – Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Epatante had Zanahiyr a length behind in third when runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle last month. Both are having their first start over 2m 4f today and neither are guaranteed to stay today’s longer distance. The latter shaped like he would stay but if Epatante is as effective over 2m 4f I think she can confirm Cheltenham form with Zanahiyr
Brewin’upastorm won over C&D in the autumn so no stamina issues for the 9-year-old. He has a bit to fins on official rating ratings with the front pair but does race in the first time cheekpieces today and if the headgear has the desired effect won’t be far away.
4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
The first sight of the National fences at the meeting.
Jett took to the big fences when 8th in last year’s Grand National and after a bold jumping display out in front, was still leading three out before his stamina ran out. Obvious claims and missed Cheltenham for this.
Porlock Bay won the Cheltenham Foxhunters at last year’s festival. Hasn’t been at that level of form on two starts this year. Missed Cheltenham this year to come here and if he takes to the fences should make a bold bid.
Cousin Pascal took to the fences 12 months ago when beating Latenightpass by 2 ½ lengths in last year’s race. He never got into a rhythm when pulled up at Cheltenham last month but if you ignore that run, he shouldn’t be far away given his C&D form. Latenightpass comes into the race in better form than his old rival and look set for another a bold bid.
4:40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m
With seventeen set to go to post for the race it’s the most competitive race of today’s seven-race card. It’s just a shame that it’s not been shown on ITV.
King D’argent looked on to bare in mind for a valuable 2m handicap chase when a neck 2nd of 6 at Doncaster last month. Just 1lb higher here and looks primed for a big performance.
Frero Banbou has the ability to win but can be a tricky ride, as he showed when running on 6-length 3rd of 16, in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, after getting well behind early on in the race.
Before Midnight’s prominent style of racing should be suited by the track. The 9-year-old put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last time. Races off the same mark here and should be in the mix provided the going isn’t too soft.
The Evan Williams yard have hit winning form in the past week which brings The Last Day into the mix. The lightly raced 10-year-old, a previous C&D winner, had looked set to defy 353-day absence when taking a heavy fall at the last at Haydock. He was in the lead at the last that day and if none the worse for that mishap look set for a big run off just 1lb higher.
5:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 1f
Ashroe Diamond looked like further and/or more of a stamina test would have suited when ½-length 4th of 16 to Lily du Berlais in Grade 2 mares race at the Dublin Racing Festival. The forecast strong pace is a positive to her chance and she will be there or thereabouts.
There are plenty among the twenty runners who look open to further improvement they include Irish raiders Law Ella and Naughtinesse. The first named looked a useful prospect when winning at Down Royal on her racecourse debut last month. Preference though is for Naughtinesse who confirmed her debut promise when beating eight rivals at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. She’s bred to be very useful when going jumping but should go well here.
Rachel Blackmore is an eye-catching jockey booking for Lady Excalibur who is having her first start since winning a bumper over C&D in October. She’s yet to race on ground worse than good so her effectiveness on rain softened ground must be taken on trust, feared if handling it.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
2:20 – 1pt win – Petit Tonnerre – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:55 – 1pt win – Clan Des Obeaux – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:30 – 1pt win – Brewin’upastorm – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:40 – 1pt win – King D’argent – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 1pt win – The Last Day – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Before Midnight – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John