Hi all,
Ayr’s two-day Scottish National meeting gets underway with a a seven-race card. The feature race is the Listed Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (3.30). Last year’s winner Nietzsche faces six rivals in hisbid for back-to-back wins in the race. There’s also a decent seven-race card at Newbury. I have had a look at four races at Ayr and three at Newbury. Selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ayr
2:55 – Remus Uomo Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m
Thereisnodoubt wasn’t disgraced when n 8 ¼ lengths 6th of 11 to Cormier in Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso last time. Back down in calmer waters and isn’t on a bad mark.
Since Day One made all to make it 4-4 at Newcastle last time. Up 5lb he had one of today’s rivals Soft Risk 3 ½ lengths back in second. The runner-up is 4lb better off today so there shouldn’t be much between the pair and he did win over C&D back in November. That said preference is for Since Day One to confirm form with Brian Hughes back in the saddle.
3:30 – Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
A small field for the Ayr future. Last year’s winner Nietzsche hasn’t been in winning form so far this season but the handicapper has given him a chance as he’s now 12lb lower than when successful in this race 12 months ago and must be respected.
Flic Ou Voyou beat one rival at Doncaster in November when getting off the mark over fences. The 8-year-old ran well after 3 months layoff when putting in a career best over fences when a 1 ¼ lengths 2nd of 6 to Killer Kane in listed novice handicap at Sandown last time. Just 2lb higher here and set for another big run.
Beakstown didn’t stay 3m when a 20 ¾ length 6th of 14 to Cap du Nord in Grade 3 handicap chase at Kempton last time. The return to 2m 4f ½ will suit as does decent ground and a flat track. On a winnable mark although the 9-year-old is on a losing run that goes back to January 2019. Trainer Dan Skelton saddled the winner of this race three times between 2017 & 2019.
Coach Carter, trained by Gordon Elliott, isn’t discounted. Looked a promising novice chaser when winner on chase debut at Listowel in September. Hasn’t built on that promise on three subsequent starts but the return to a sounder surface looks a plus for the 6-year-old.
4:05 – Coral Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m ½ f
Glimpse Of Gold and Timeless Beauty both come into the race on the back of recent wins. Meanwhile Get A Tonic would probably have won but for hanging to her left on the run in when a ½-length 2nd of 9 to Fonzerelli in listed mares novice hurdle at Doncaster last time.
Wynn House won a good ground mares’ only 2m 5 ½ f handicap hurdle at Wincanton, off today’s mark, in November. Not quite at that level of form on two starts since and finished 10¼ lengths third of 6 to Glimpse of Gala at Ludlow last time. Get’s 8lb from that mare here and today’s better ground will suit her better than the testing ground she faced at Ludlow.
5:15 – Thistle Cabs Group Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
Your Own Story, twice a winner in Irish points last autumn, got off the mark over hurdles at the second attempt when beating five rivals at Carlisle (good to soft) 22-days ago. The 6-year-old was well suited by the step up to 3m 1f last time. A good stamina really suits and he’s open to further improvement on his handicap debut. The Lucinda Russell Yard is 0-23 in the past 14-days but stable form apart he’s got a good chance in an open looking contest.
Newbury
3:05 – BetVictor Gamble Responsibly Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Irish Hill was back to form when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 9 to the progressive Punctuation in a C&D novice handicap hurdle last month. Useful on the level when trained in Germany and shouldn’t be far away back on a sound surface.
Black Poppy beat Straw Fan Jack by a short head over C&D last month. The winner is seeking the hat trick here. However, the runner-up bounced back to the form of his seasonal reappearance effort at Cheltenham and in receipt of a 1lb is entitled to reverse placings today.
3:40 – Watch Last Fan Standing Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m
Copper Coin could be a value pick here. The 9-year-old returns from 119-day absence but he’s got a good record fresh, having had 2 wins from 6 starts 4 placed when returning from 90+ day absence. Tom Scudamore who has ridden him to all three-career success’s is back in the saddle and I think he can go close here.
4:15 – Get A Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 6 ½ f
The likely prominently ridden Your Darling will be suited the likely even pace here. The top weight, a winner on his chase debut at Huntingdon (good to soft) in October bounced back to form with a solid enough effort when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to Jacamar at Kempton over Christmas. Had looked the most likely winner when jumping the last but faded badly on the run in. Poor run when pulled up at Cheltenham in January but the first time cheekpieces are applied and if they have the desired effect, can be a weak finisher, he’s handicapped to go close.
Betting Advice:
Ayr
2:55 – 1pt win – Since Day One – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:05 – 1pt win – Wynn House – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:15 – 1pt win – Your Own Story – 13/2 @ Bet365
Newbury
3:05 – 1pt win – Straw Fan Jack – 9/2 @ Bet365
3:40 – Copper Coin – 8/1 – Gen
4:35 – Your Darling – 9/2 – Gen
Cheers
John