Hi all,
We’re onto Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival and the action changes to the stiffer New Course today. Once again, I preview all seven races on the card and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 3
The going was changed to heavy by the time of yesterday’s final race. They will be running on the New Course today and although its due to be dry and sunny it’s still likely to be soft ground today. Please note: I wrote today’s preview before all the rain had fallen.
1:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
It looks like the big two Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs have scared off most of their rivals with just the four runners being declared. Its last season’s best novice hurdler against one of the best novice chasers we have seen this season. In effect it’s a classic coin toss. If Bob Olinger’s jumping holds up and he’s within a couple of lengths of Galopin Des Champs at the last his speed could be the decisive factor. However, the change in the going has tipped the race in favour of the Mullins horse.
Verdict: A race to watch rather than bet in for me.
2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m
Sire Du Berlais won this race in 2019 & 2020 and finished runner-up in last season’s Stayers Hurdle. A good amateur takes off 7lb off the top-weights back and given his course/festival his claims are clear for all to see.
Winter Fog ran well when 3 ¼ length 2nd of 27 to Panda Boy in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas. Capable of better and is a major contender although at 5/1 he’s plenty short enough in the betting.
Alaphilippe fifth of 16 in last season’s Albert Bartlett, shaped better than his 5th of 7 in a Warwick qualifier suggests on his seasonal return. He looks on a fair enough mark
I tipped Dunboyne each way at 16/1 earlier in the year and I remain happy with him. His stablemate Folcano qualified for this when finishing 6th of 20 at Punchestown on his seasonal reappearance. Back to form when a ½-length 4th of 21 at Navan in December and he’s respected here.
Of those at bigger prices Born Patriot and Honest Vic appeal most. The first named seemed to appreciate the return to 3m and better ground when finishing a 3-length 2nd of 14 over C&D in October. Off for 4 months and below that form when a well beaten 11th of 17 at Sandown last month. He’s got a bit to find but good ground brings him firmly into the picture. Honest Vic didn’t seem to take chasing this season. He’s very much respected on his C&D (good to soft) win in October 2020, off today’s mark. The 9-year-old also ran well here when a 6-length 5th of 25 in the 2020 Coral Cup. On decent ground he looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest.
Verdict: The first of three competitive handicaps. Those at the front of the end of the market Winter Fog, Sire Du Berlais, Alaphilippe and Dunboyne have solid claims. The latter’s stablemate Folcano must be respected as do Born Patriot, on good ground, and the nicely treated Honest Vic.
2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
Allaho put in the most spectacular performance of last year’s festival when winning this race. The 8-year-old has won both his starts this season and is is rightly going to go off a short-priced favourite. The favourite or second favourite have won 11 of the last 14 renewals of the race. Second favourites have provided 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +15 10 placed 59%.
Allaho’s nearest market rival is recent Irish Gold Cup Winner Conflated. He’s started to get his act together over fences and although it’s hard to see him beating the favourite, if that one is at his very best, he is capable of more improvement and has solid each way claims. Another with place claims is recent Denman Chase winner Eldorado Allen but surely, he and Conflated are fighting it for second place.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond Allaho but Conflated is a solid enough each way contender.
3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
Ten are set to meet the starter for what looks a very tricky puzzle. It’s a tricky race because many of the leading fancies have questions to answer.
Last year’s winner Flooring Porter just heads the market in his back-to-back successes in the race. He was an excellent 2 length 2nd of 11 to Klassical Dream in Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time and given the winner pinched five lengths at the start he did well to get a close as he did at the finish.
Klassical Dream would probably have been favourite for this if he hadn’t have gone to the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park a month later. The 8-year-old was a disappointing 4th of 9 there when sent off the 1/3 favourite. He needs to bounce back to his Leopardstown best here and if he does, he won’t be far away.
Champ was also a beaten odds-on favourite when a below par 3 ¼ lengths 2nd of 5 to Paisley Park in Cleeve Hurdle over C&D. Prior to that the 10-year-old had been back to his best when beating Thyme Hill and Paisley Park winning the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. If Champ reproduces his Long Walk performance, he would go close. However, he has one trend to defy. Since 2016 horses in Grade 1 hurdle races at the festival, aged 9yo+ are 0 winners from 50 runners. That age trend is also against Paisley Park who bounced back to something like his best when winning the Cleeve Hurdle last time.
Thyme Hill who had to miss last year’s race due to a setback, won the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle at Aintree last April. The 8-year-old bounced back from a poor run in France when finishing 1 ½ lengths behind Champ in the Long Walk. He’s got previous Cheltenham Festival form, finishing third to Envoi Allen in the 2019 Champion Bumper and when finishing a slightly unlucky 1 ½ length 4th of 19 to Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over C&D.
The improving Royal Kahala has won her last two starts. Last time out she posted a career best on RPR’s when winning the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle. That was the mare’s first run at 3m and she’s maybe capable of better over the distance. The mare has a bit to find on official ratings buts she’s got a likeable attitude and the soft ground has come in her favour.
Verdict: If Klassical Dream bounces back to his best he’s got the class to win this. However, Flooring Porter looks the more reliable of the pair. The age stat puts me off Champ and Paisley Park. Royal Kahala will like the softer ground and can make the frame. That leaves Thyme Hill who has less questions to answer than his main market rivals.
4:10 – Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
Spiritofthegames is on a long losing run but the 10-year-old always seem to run well in big field handicaps at Cheltenham. His six best RPR’s have come here and he shaped well enough again when a 6 ¼ lengths 3rd of 10 over C&D on Trials Day. He’s on a good mark and if all the cards fall right, he can go close.
Glancing Queen was a 10-length 2nd of 8 to L’Homme Presse in the Garde 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last time: She’s only had three starts over fences and is capable of better in the sphere.
Celebre D’Allen made it 3-3 since joining Philip Hobbs when winning at Warwick last month. He’s up 5lb for that success but looked to have a bit hand that day and remains on a competitive mark. Has won on heavy ground and If he handles the track he’s a big contender.
Imperial Alcazar looked an ideal type for this race when winning over C&D on Trials Day. He’s up 8lb for his latest win but like the Glancing Queen he’s only had three starts over fences and he’s open to further improvement.
Adrimel made 2-3 over fences when winning at Haydock last month. That was the 7-year-old’s first start in handicap company and he’s just 1lb higher in the weights so likely remains on a workable mark. Two from two since the fitting of the blinkers and four from four on heavy ground so yesterday’s rain has come at the right time for him.
This is a handicap chase where the Irish have a good recent record having won four of the last six renewals. Gordon Elliott saddled The Storyteller to win this in 2018 and he’s three in with a chance including Grand Paradis and Fancy Foundations. The pair are both novices but must respected on their handicap debuts.
Verdict: Glancing Queen and Imperial Alcazar are both unexposed over fences and have track form. Celebre D’Allen remains on a competitive mark after his recent Warwick success and if he handles the track won’t be far away. The Elliott pair of Grand Paradis and Fancy Foundations are in the mix with a slight preference for the former. Spiritofthegames goes well over C&D and has each way claims.
4:50 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
I must confess this is race I haven’t looked at in any detail but Dinoblue is my choice here. The mare has been one of the taking horses on the preview circuit. She jumped quickly and accurately for a novice when winning her sole start over hurdles at Clonmel in January. She’s open to plenty of improvement and looks an exciting prospect. Party Central has claims on her comfortable success in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. The rain has come at the right time for Love Envoi who made it 3-3 on heavy ground when winning a Grade 2 mares’ hurdle at Sandown last time. The 6-year-old looks the best of the home contenders.
Verdict: Dinoblue for me but the progressive Party Central & Love Envoi must be respected.
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
Gordon Elliott is 2-10 6 places with his runners in the race, and the yard also won it 12 months ago when Denise Foster was in charge. Given the yards excellent record in the race it’s not surprising that he has the ante post favourite in Frontal Assault, he also saddles Smoking Gun and Glenloe and they all have a chance. Frontal Assault has only had three starts over fences and is interesting on his handicap debut. A winner at 3m over hurdles he’s open to further improvement for today’s step up in distance. Jamie Codd is on board Smoking Gun and the 9-year-old comes into the race on the back of a career best effort over fences when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 9 at Fairyhouse last month. He stays well but can be an in and out performer.
Last time out winners are 1-50 7 placed in this race since 2008. That slightly puts me off School Boy Hours who has the able assistance of Derek O’Conner in the saddle. The 9-year-old got off the mark over fences for the first time over fences when winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time.
Ain’t That A Shame has finished behind the likes of Galopin Des Champs & Stattler in beginners’ chases this winter and finished a neck 2nd of 9 to Champagne Platinum at Navan last time. The 8-year-old is another interesting contender on his handicap debut for Henry De Bromhead.
Mister Fogpatches can normally be relied on to run his race in these big field handicaps and was a 5 ¼ lengths 3rd of 18 to Longhouse Poet in Thyestes Handicap Chase last time. Better ground won’t inconvenience the 8-yer-old who’s got place claims.
Come On Teddy should be suited by the step up to 3m 2f. Third of 22 in last season’s Pertemps Final. However, he does need to jump better than he did last time when a 3 ¾ length 2nd of 4 to one of today’s rivals Omar Maretti at Newcastle. The latter has gone in again at Catterick last month, Come On Teddy is 7lb better of with that one here and could run a big race for the home team.
The most interesting of the home team could be the Nicky Henderson trained Mister Coffey. A useful hurdler the 7-year-old has run respectably on his three starts since going chasing, including when a ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Jacamar at Kempton two starts back. Not match for L’Homme Presse when runner-up to that smart novice chaser in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time. Yet to race beyond an extended 2m 4 f but shapes like 3m could be his trip. If he does stay then he would likely be on good mark.
Verdict: There’s plenty to like about the claims of the favourite Frontal Assault. Ain’t That A Shame could also be on a good mark for handicap debut. Mister Fogpatches is a consistent type in these big field handicap chases but is vulnerable to any better treated rivals. The best of the home team could be Mister Coffey who looks on a workable mark, if he stays 3m 2f.
Betting Advice:
2:10 – 1pt win – Folcano – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Born Patriot – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – 1pt win – Adrimel – 16/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 and 1pt win – Grand Paradis – 8/1 @ William Hill
5:30 – 1pt win – Frontal Assault – 6/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill and 1pt win – Omar Maretti – 11/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Cheers
John