Hi all,
I thought it was going to be one of those days when Baldomero got caught in the final strides in Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trial. However, it didn’t matter on the day as the wins of Surprise Package and Tinker Toy gave the service a fantastic pre-Cheltenham profit on the day
The Leinster National Handicap Chase (4:40) at Naas is the highlight of the Sunday action. I have a couple of fancies on the Naas card and one at Warwick.
I will be back on Monday with my selections for day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
Naas
4:40 – BARONERACING.COM Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m ½ f
Twelve handicap chasers are set to go to post in pursuit of the €59,000 winner prize. Top of the betting is Champagne Platinum who got off the mark over fences at the seventh attempt when winning a 3m Navan beginners chase two starts back. The 8-year-old improved again when a 3-length 2nd of 13 to Death Duty in the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown last month. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort but is the one to beat.
Franco De Port has top-weight of 11-12 to carry but he comes into the race on good form having finished a ¾-length 2nd of 18 to Longhouse Poet in Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran last time. He’s been raised a further 5lb for last time which could anchor him on what look sure to be testing ground.
His stablemate Stones and Roses can’t be totally dismissed of a light weight and is capable of winning a staying handicap chase like this. However, he looks held by Champagne Platinum on their Punchestown running.
Diol Ker was 5 ¼ lengths behind Franco De Port in the Thyestes and gets 3lb from that one today. Testing ground suits the 8-year-old and this is just his second start in a handicap so he could be capable of a bit better if his jumping holds up.
Scoir Mear won last year’s renewal off 3lb lower. He has been running over hurdles this season and the 12-year-old put in his best effort of the season when a 3 ¾ length 5th of 16 at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. The more testing ground the better for the veteran who’s another with each way claims.
Stormy Judge won a handicap chase here over an extended 2m 4f last season before going to post a career best over fences when winning a valuable novices’ handicap chase at Navan 12 months ago. A recent run over hurdles should have blown some of the cobwebs away although he maybe even sharper after this run. He’s open to further progress over 3m+ and the Irish Grand National is the 7-year-old’s main target.
Verdict: Franco De Port has a touch of class but it won’t be easy to defy top-weight. Champagne Platinum is a worthy market leader. Diol Ker shouldn’t be far away on ground that will suit and trainer Noel Meade saddled the winner in 2020. Stormy Judge is the one open to the most improvement in the field and should be all the better for a recent spin over hurdles. Last year’s winner Scoir Mear looks to have been laid out for this and there was plenty of encouragement to be taken for his recent run over hurdles.
1pt win – Stormy Judge – 6/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts win – Scoir Mear – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts win – Stones and Roses – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Warwick
3:55 – Volcano won four times over fences in a productive 2020-21 season. One of those successes came in this race 12 months ago, off 15lb higher. There’s no doubting the 8-year-old is well handicapped on his best form but he’s been well beaten on all his starts this season.
Shanty Alley developed into a useful handicap chaser last season winning twice at Uttoxeter & Doncaster. Before arguably putting a career best when a 5-length 2nd of 14 to Time To Get Up at Wincanton last February. The 8-year-old has failed to complete on either start this season. He was withdrawn on account of drying ground at Wincanton last Thursday.
The Newest One won a novice’s handicap chase at Doncaster back in November and wasn’t disgraced when an 11-length 4th of 7 at Ludlow (3m) a month later. He would have finished a bit closer that day but for a bad mistake two out. Has been given an 81-day break and will like the good to soft going. If he stays today’s 3m 5f trip, won’t be far away for the inform Nigel Twiston-Davies yard.
Vinnie Dev ran well on just his second start over fences when a 9-length 2nd of 8 to Snuff Box at Lingfield last month. The step up to 3m 5f seemed to bring about improved form last time and given he’s unexposed over fences the 8-year-old could be capable of better.
Verdict: Volcano is well handicapped, if bouncing back to last season’s best but he’s been woeful so far this season. Shanty Alley is respected but does need genuinely good to soft or softer ground to run. The Newest One hails from an inform yard and is respected but Vinnie Dev could prove the best of the novices.
1pt win – Shanty Alley – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John