Hi all,
It’s the final weekend of racing before Cheltenham begins on Tuesday and it’s a mix of jumps and all-weather flat action on Saturday.
Saturday’s feature race is the Paddy Power Imperial Cup (2.25) at Sandown. Back in the day the Imperial Cup was one of the most prestigious handicap hurdles of the jumps season. Since the Cheltenham Festival has become the main obsession of connections the race has lost some of its gloss. There’s £100,000 in guaranteed prize money with £56,270 on offer to the winner. That twice the prize money as 12 months ago so it should attract more than the paltry nine who met the starter last year.
Sandown’s seven-race card also includes a Grade 3 novice handicap hurdle final (1.50), a Listed handicap chase (3.35) and a Listed mares’ bumper (3.00).
Wolverhampton hosts its most valuable meeting of the year. The highlight being Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes (2.40) and the Lincoln Trial Handicap (2:05).
The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Sandown and Wolverhampton as part of a seven-race programme on Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday big race on Sunday is at Naas, where the highlight is the Leinster National (4:40) so there is plenty to keep us occupied until the tapes go up on the Supreme on Tuesday.
Saturday’s betting is to be found at the end of this preview.
Sandown
The going is good, good to soft in places on the Hurdle course and good to soft, good in places on the chase at Sandown although some rain was forecast for Friday. Although the forecast amounts it shouldn’t alter the going too much.
1:50 – European Breeders’ Fund Paddy Power “National Hunt” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Knappers Hill was a 6 ¼ lengths sixth of 14 to Glory And Fortune in Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time shaping like 2m 4f will suit him. The 6-year-old looks a solid enough favourite. However, he does face 16 interesting rivals
Our Jet, trained by Dan Skelton, looks interesting on his handicap hurdle debut after two wins at Wetherby.
Thunder Rock completed the hat trick when winning on his handicap debut at Huntingdon last month. He’s up 6lb but likely remains on a competitive mark.
Arizona Cardinal got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Warwick 15-days ago. It was heavy that day so he’s going to have different ground today.
Dubrovnik Harry comfortably won a heavy ground Exeter maiden in January and then finished runner-up at Leicester last month. Respected on his Exeter win on handicap hurdle win.
Peejaybee bids for the hat trick and won a handicap hurdle over C&D two starts back. More exposed than a few in the field but remains one to be interested in.
Verdict: For all his obvious claims the price has gone on Knappers Hill. If the ground is ok I can see Dubrovnik Harry going well for Harry Fry. I also see Peejaybee going well.
2:25 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m
For those looking for trends to provide bit of guidance and they do help to thin-out the likely losers from probable winners. Not digging to deeply but there are three that look interesting to me:
All 13 winners had won 1-2 times over hurdles.
Twelve of the last 13 winners carried 10-13 or less.
Twelve of the last 13 winners had run between 16 to 45-days.
Balco Coastal also fails the weight trend but he’s another who’s going the right way and is 2-3 over hurdles. The drop back to 2m looks a positive. He looks a worthy market leader albeit the form of the Nicky Henderson is a concern.
Irish raider Suprise Package put in a career best when 2nd of 18 at Leopardstown two starts. However, he wasn’t seen to best effect when 9th of 27 back there at the Dublin Racing Festival. A winner of a valuable novice hurdle at last season’s Punchestown Festival over 2m 4f. He might be better over further than 2m but drying ground will suit, as would a strongly run race.
Langer Dan’s stablemate Lucky One is potentially well handicapped on last season’s win at Wincanton. Low key efforts on his first two starts for Dan Skelton but he was slightly better when 3rd of 11 at Ascot last time. Another who should find a strongly two miles ideal.
Add in the improving Mr Grey Sky who his bidding for a hat trick after wins at Leicester & Ludlow. Recent C&D winner and handicap debutant Monviel and you have the makings of an interesting renewal of this historic hurdle race.
Verdict: Suprise Package will like the drying ground. If you’ve taken the fancy prices on Balco Coastal you will be happy and he’s look well handicapped. The big prices available early in the week about the Lucky One are long gone.
3:00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) – 2m
Mullenberg a winner of a mares Listed bumper at Cheltenham on Trial’s Day has a penalty to carry for that success. However, she looked a class above her rivals that day and looks the one to beat here.
Luccia, trained by Nicky Henderson, looked a useful prospect when winning a Warwick bumper on her racecourse debut in January. As 4-year-old she also gets an age allowance from all but one of her rivals.
Flirtatious Girl won this race last year but the conditions of the race mean she can still run in this year’s renewal. However, she was 12 ½ lengths behind Mullenberg at Cheltenham on her seasonal return. The return to going right-handed will suit the 6-year-old though.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off Mullenberg here.
3:35 – Paddy Power Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) – 2m 4f
With £50,000 in guaranteed prize money the sponsors will disappointed that just six have been declared to meet the starter.
Scene Not Herd made it 3-3 since going over fences when beating three rivals at Ludlow when last seen in action in December. Back from an 80-day break today and 5lb higher than last time but given the quality of his jumping he’s the one to bet here.
Frenchy Du Large is another good jumping novice chaser and he’s 2-4 since going chasing. Came up a progressive novice when runner-up at Lingfield last time. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Farinet to win this last year.
Danny Kirwan got off the mark at the third attempt over fences when winning a Wincanton novice chase last time. The 9-year-old must be respected on ground that will suit but he often flattered to deceive over hurdles and it could be the same over fences.
Verdict: I’m happy to take on Danny Kirwan here with Scene Not Herd and Frenchy Du Large with a preference for the former.
Wolverhampton
1:31 – Betway Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Zarzyni has finished runner-up on all three starts since returning from a break. He was finishing his race off strongly over 5f at Southwell last time and will be suited by today’s extra furlong.
Mighty Gurkha was a useful juvenile winning the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton. Made a good start to his three-year-old career but regressed on his final four starts last year. He’s nicely treated on last winter’s best form if bouncing back to something like his best.
At big odds I respect Full Authority on his first start for Jane Chapple-Hyam. A winner over C&D when trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Hardly a beat a rival on three starts for Richard Fahey last year but he’s well handicapped, if the stable switch has had the desired effect.
Verdict: The consistent Zarzyni wouldn’t be winning out of turn. However, it may pay to go with Full Authority on his first start for a new yard.
2:05 – MansionBet Lincoln Trial Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f
La Tihaty completed the four timer when winning at Kempton last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 9lb for his latest success but trainer Roger Varian has booked Saffie Osbourne to take off a handy 5lb off the top-weight. The lightly raced 4-year-old could be a Group level performer but he may have to be to defy stall 12.
Bless Him has been in decent form in Meydan, including when 3rd of 16 22-days ago. He’s a hold up horse and will be a hostage to the pace of the race and will need all the cards to fall right to win.
Mick Appleby won this with Big Country in 2018 and the same owners have Baldomero here. The 4-year-old has run well on both starts since switching from Joseph O’Brien stable. A winner at Kempton over 2f further 10-days ago, the drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him and he looks a big player.
Verdict: La Tihaty wide draw is a bit off putting albeit he looks the most likely winner. Bless Him has the ability to win but will need luck in the run. That leaves Baldomero as the pick.
2:40 – MansionBet Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) – 7f
Misty Grey is 4-4, including a three-time winner over C&D. He was no match for La Tihaty at Kempton over a mile last time but the return to C&D is a big plus for him.
Amilcar produced a good turn of foot to win a Listed race at Deauville in December. He must give away a 3lb penalty to all his rivals but remains an interesting contender from France.
Happy Power is having his first start on the all-weather. However, the 6-year-old has some good form on turf that would give him a real chance here. He finished a 2 ½ 4th of 12 in the Group 1 Diamon Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and was also a ½ length runner-up to Kinross in a 7f Group 2 at Goodwood last summer.
Tinker Toy won on the tapeta at Newcastle last yearbefore subsequently disappointing on both starts on turf last summer. Returned from a 7 month lay off and a gelding operation off 7 months when a ¾-length 2nd of 8 at Lingfield last month. That was a joint career best on RPR’s from the 5-year-old and given his lightly raced profile he could be capable of better.
Internationalangel has won all her five starts since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam stable. The mare put in a career best when showing a nice turn of foot to win a Newcastle handicap 17-days ago. She’s needs to improve again to win in listed company but given her present form you couldn’t rule it out.
Verdict: If Happy Power takes to the all-weather, he won’t be far away. The improving Internationalangel is very much in the mix as is the lightly raced Tinker Toy.
Betting Advice:
Sandown
1:50 – 1pt win – Peejaybee – 10/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Dubrovnik Harry – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt win – Suprise Package – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wolverhampton
1:31 – 0.5pts each way – Full Authority – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
2:05 – 1pt win – Baldomero – 8/1 @ Bet365
2:40 – 1pt win – Tinker Toy – 14/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John