Hi all,
There’s likely to be a few more Cheltenham Festival clues at Kempton on Saturday. There’s some great prize money on offer on Kempton’s seven race card which contains three Grade 2 contests. The Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (1:50), the Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (2.25) and the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (3:00). The most valuable race on the card though is the Grade 3 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (3:37) which has £85,425 on offer to the winner.
The marathon Vertem Eider (4m 1 ½f) is the highlight of a seven-race card at Newcastle Newcastle’s card. There’s also some quality all-weather action at Lingfield with feature race being the Group 3 Betway Winter Derby (2.05)
The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle on a eight race programme.
It’s a shorter Saturday preview than usual and I have concentrated on those races where I have selections. As ever my betting advice can be found at the bottom of the main piece.
Kempton
The going at Kempton is good to soft.
1:15 – Coral ‘Fail-To-Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Chase (Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
Le Cameleon took advantage of a drop-in class and falling mark when beating seven rivals at Fontwell 19-days ago. He’s up 3lb for that success and in higher grade today but he’s only a 7-year-old and remains capable of better.
Patroclus was a non-runner at Newbury on Sunday due to soft ground. He will be better suited by today’s good to soft going. A winner on just his second start over fences at Leicester last time. He’s only been raised 3lb for that win and is open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles.
Flegmatik comfortably won here over 3m last time. He’s up 7lb but could still be well be ahead of the handicapper although I’m not sure he wants the drop back to an extended 2m 3 ½ f.
3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
The valuable 3m Handicap Chase run at Kempton on Saturday is on its sixth different sponsor in as many years. This year its Coral who have taken over the mantle of sponsorship.
Christian Williams has a couple of lively contenders in Cap Du Nord who looks nicely handicapped on his 3 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to Royale Pagaille over C&D last season. However, he was 6 ½ length behind Mister Malarky in last year’s race. The other Williams runner is Five Star Getaway who beat recent Ascot winner Fortescue over C&D two starts back. He’s since finished 3rd of 8 at Sandown so remains in good form.
Annsam won the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot, off 6lb lower, in December. That was just his fifth start over fences and his second start over 3m. Despite his weight rise he remains with potential. Trainer form is a bit of a concern with Evan Williams being 1-25 in the past two weeks.
Galahad Quest has looked in the grip of the handicapper of late. However, he shapes like he’s worth a go over 3m and if the step up in trip can eke out some improvement, he could run well.
Our Power made it 2-4 over fences when beating three rivals at Huntingdon last month. It was heavy that day but he has also won on good ground so there are no issues with the drying ground. Has always convinced with his jumping and that will be tested in today’s bigger field. Has won here over hurdles in the past. Stay 2m 5f but stamina for three mile is an unknown. If he stays, he won’t be far away.
Phoenix Way got a good ride from Kevin Brogan when winning at Ascot last month. His Ascot win came when dropped to back 2m 5f. Stays 3m as he showed when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 15 to Annsam two starts back. Might struggle to beat an inform Annsam, on the same terms, over today’s trip
The Big Breakaway is another who was back to form last time when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 8 to The Brimming Water over hurdles at Newbury last time. Highly tried in novice chase company last season, including finishing third to Monkfish in the RSA at Cheltenham Festival and runner-up to Shan Blue over C&D. This race has been the plan and he could be well treated in the first time cheekpieces for his handicap chase debut.
Verdict: Cape Du Nord is nicely treated on his best form of last season and stablemate Five Star Getaway could also be capable of further progress over 3m. The progressive Our Power needs to improve again for the step up to 3m. However, if his jumping holds up and he stays then he’s high on the shortlist.
Newcastle
The going at Newcastle is good to soft.
3:15 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 4m 1 ½ f
Danilo D’Airy completed a hat trick of wins, after a 7-month layoff, when winning at Ffos Las in December. Low key run over hurdles last time but the 9-year-old is a much better chaser than a hurdler. Has gone up 15lb since his last win but he’s going the right way and if he stays the trip is the one to be with.
Eclair Surf won the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but is his lightly raced staying chaser but looks capable of winning another big pot. He did appreciate genuinely soft ground at Warwick but today’s ground should be fine.
Irish raider History Of Fashion has just had four starts over fences getting off the mark on his handicap chase debut for the first time at Down Royal last month. Raced last time like a marathon trip could prove ideal and on ground that will suit, should run well.
Verdict: Éclair Surf brings the best into the race and his claims are clear for all to see. I’m slightly concerned about the drying ground though. Which means I reluctantly pass him over for Danilo D’Airy and History Of Fashion.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
1:15 – 1pt win – Le Cameleon – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:37 – 1pt win – Cap Du Nord – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win Our Power – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newcastle
3:15 – 1pt win – Danilo D’Airy – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – History Of Fashion – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John