Hi all,
There’s plenty of top flight sport on offer on Saturday. Down at Ascot, it’s the final Grade 1 in Britain before the Cheltenham Festival the Ascot Chase (3.35), which could include King George VI. Among the entries are Saint Calvados, Mister Fisher and last year’s winner Dashel Drasher. The Ascot card also features the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (1.50).
The Grand National Trial (2.40) is the feature race of a seven-race card at Haydock. The big race action is completed by the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle (2:05) and the Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle (1:30).
There’s further big race action at Wincanton with the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle (3:20) where the mercurial Goshen could take on lively Champion Hurdle outsider Adagio.
Across the Irish Sea its Red Mills Day at Gowran Park. The 2m 4f Red Mills Chase is the highlight of a card that also includes a Grade 3 two-mile hurdle.
There’s a possibility that the stormy weather will play havoc with Saturday’s action. Wincanton has suffered wind damage which made the track unraceable on Friday. The track will hold a morning inspection to see if racing can take place. Haydock will also hold a precautionary 8am inspection to see if racing can go ahead.
The going is being described as heavy at Haydock. Thankfully no problems are being forecast at Ascot where the going is soft. At Wincanton the going is being described as soft, good to soft for Kingwell Hurdle Day but if the wind continues to blow it could flip the other way according to the Clerk of the Course.
Given uncertainty over the forecast I have just focused on a handful races at Ascot and Haydock. As ever my betting advice is at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
The ground is going to be very deep today if they do race here today. Small fields are the order of the day at Haydock with just 48 runners declared for a seven-race card.
2:05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f
Third Wind built on the promise of his Ascot reappearance in December when a 7 ¾ lengths 3rd of 7 to Sporting John in a Pertemps Series Qualifiers at Warwick last month. He won this race 12 months ago and flat track like Haydock really suits. It was soft ground when he won 12 months ago but he should be fine on heavy.
2:40 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f
Eleven are set to meet the starter for a race which will likely see few finishers.
Secret Reprieve is a best priced 4/1 and last season’s Welsh Grand National winner was off for 12 months before running in that race this season. Lack of race fitness told in the final stages and he eventually finished a well-beaten fifth of 20. Better expected and he remains capable of better.
Blaklion has taken advantage of falling mark to win his last two starts, both here, including C&D. The handicapper has had his say since raising him 11lb for his last success. The 13-year-old will, like the ground and he has finished runner-up in the race twice in the past.
Sam Brown was runner-upto Royale Pagaille here in the Peter Marsh Chase last month. He likely had a hard race that day which is a concern. That said he likes it here and shouldn’t be far away. to be staying on well into third and if he stays today’s longer trip will be thereabouts.
Lord De Mesnil twice a C&D winner, including this race 12 months, he also finished runner-up in 2020, off 1lb lower. Best effort this season came when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 9 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. Might have been feeling the effect of a hard race when below form in the Peter Marsh Chase here last month. Effective on heavy ground but the yard are struggling for winners.
Mint Condition a winner here over 2m 6f on heavy ground two starts back before struggling when a 24 ½ lengths fourth of 5 to Threeunderthrufive in a Grade 2 at Warwick last month. Going and track no problem for the 8-year-old who looks nicely treated but stamina is a big unknown.
Enqarde won the Tommy Whittle here over an extended 3m 1f in December. He’s now 9lb higher than last time but has been trained for the race. He finished his race off strongly last time but 3m 4 ½ in what’s sure to be testing ground asks another question of the 8-year-old.
There was plenty to like about the Galloping Bear’s attitude in beating 14 rivals to land the Surrey National at Lingfield last month. Well suited to testing ground, he clearly stays well and is unexposed over marathon trips. The 9-year-old is 5lb higher than last time but looks set for another big run provided he didn’t have to hard a race last time.
Time To Get Up looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over 4m last season so no stamina issues for the lightly raced 9-year-old. It was good to soft when he won at Uttoxeter but he also won on heavy at Wincanton last season so he should be fine on the ground. However, a poor run in the Grand Sefton over the National fences on his only start this season is a worry.
Ascot
1:50 – Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m
All six runners look fairly evenly matched on official ratings.
Doyen Breed a winner at Hexham in November posted a career best on RPR’s when a 3 ½ lengths 2nd of 5 to Threeunderthrufive in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick last time. He was probably was a shade flattered to get as a close as he did that day but he’s only a seven-year-old and is open to further progress over the larger obstacles.
2:25 – greatbritishstallionshowcase.co.uk Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) – 3m
A competitive looking nine runner Listed handicap chase. Regal Encore won this in 2018 and was only beaten a head last year, off 10lb higher. Really poor effort over C&D last time and he is 14 now. This seems likely to be his last race and the handicapper has given the old boy a chance.
Fiddlerontheroof runs here rather than the shorter Grade 1 Ascot Chase later on the card. Runner-up to Monkfish at last season’s RSA at the Cheltenham Festival. The 8-year-old made a winning seasonal reappearance in the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase and then posted a career best when a ½ length 2nd of 21 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury last time. Now 5lb higher but has a handicap chase like this in him even off his revised mark.
Cobolobo two best RPR’s have come on soft ground over C&D. The 10-year-old put in a seasonal best when beaten a nose here last time and he might well have prevailed that day but for a mistake at the last. This a better race but given his course form he’s got each way claims.
Hold That Taught is interesting. The 7-year-old looked an improving handicap chaser when winning at Carlisle on his seasonal return, off 4lb lower. Ran like a non-stayer when pulling up in the Welsh Grand National (17/2) two starts back. He didn’t run much better in a novice chase at Ludlow last time though. Better than he’s been able to show on his last two starts and the more testing ground the better his chance.
Caribean Boy a faller at the first over C&D two starts back proved he stayed 3m when winning an 8-runner handicap chase at Kempton (soft) last month. Up 4lb and up in class here but he’s unexposed over the distance and should be there or thereabouts.
3:00 – Dingley’s Promise Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f
Good Risk At All looks sure to be popular here after finishing strongly over 2m at Warwick (good to soft) on his handicap hurdle debut last time. The step up to an extended 2m 3f should suit the lightly raced 6-year-old who won a bumper on soft last season. He’s up just 3lb for last time and connections will be disappointed if he can’t take advantage of a good mark.
His biggest rivals look to be Zacony Rebel & Cap Du Mathan. Zacony Rebelhas progressed with each his three starts over hurdle this season and comfortably saw off 11 rivals when winning over 2m at Ludlow last month. The 7-year-old looks capable of further improvement for the step up in trip.
Cap Du Mathan comes into the race bidding for the hat trick after wins at Plumpton & Taunton. That latter success came after 2 years off the track. He’s up 9lb for his Taunton win but goes well on soft/heavy ground and could still be a head of the handicapper.
3:38 – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
Eight for the days feature race. The betting is headed by Irish raider Fakir D’oudairies. Last season’s Ryanair Chase runner-up and Aintree Grade 1 winner. He’s the one to beat here but he can’t afford to make a mistake like he did at the first when runner-up to Allaho in a Grade 2 at Thurles last time.
Saint Calvados looked like he might cause a bit of surprise when making rapid headway to lead four out in the King George VI Chase at Kempton last time. However, that big move took its toll in the latter stages and he eventually finished third. This is more his trip and he’s very effective on soft ground. Has a Grade 1 in him when all the cards fall right.
Mister Fisher was let down by his jumping when it mattered last season. No problems with his jumping when cozily seeing off Eldorado Allen to win the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton last month. A single digit field suits the 8-year-old but he is 0-5 in a Grade 1 company and he may prefer a slightly better surface.
Last year’s winner Dashel Drasher is a four-time winner at the track and given his course form and battling attitude always must be respected. A short-head second of 6 to Two For Gold in Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield last time. He 6lb better off with the winner here and should reverse placings with that one. This looks a better race than the won he last year so the 9-year-old will likely need to post a career best to win. Should get an uncontested lead here though and is respected for that reason.
Fanion D’Estruval has put in excellent efforts under big weights in handicap company on his last two starts. Both those efforts when winning at Newbury and then finishing runner-up over C&D last time were career bests. He looks well worth his place in Graded company on ratings and isn’t ruled out easily.
Betting Advice:
Haydock
2:40 – 1pt win – The Galloping Bear – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Enqarde – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Ascot
1:50 – 1pt win – Doyen Breed – 5/1 – Gen
2:25 – 2pts win – Fiddlerontheroof – 3/1@ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 0.5pts each way – Cobolobo – 14/1 @ Bet365 (Paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – 1pt win – Cap Du Mathan – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:38 – 1pt win – Dashel Drasher – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John