Hi all,
It’s Thursday so it’s another installment of my Path To Cheltenham series and ante post selection for the Arkle Novice Chase.
Path To Cheltenham
Last weekend’s action provided several further festival clues. Edwardstone cemented his place at the top of the Arkle ante post betting with a professional display of jumping at Warwick.
On the the same card Celebre D’Allen landed the 2m 4f Class 2 handicap chase. Twice a winner over hurdles since joining present trainer Philip Hobbs. The 10-year-old had looked nicely treated on his French form back over the larger obstacles. And, so it proved as he ran out a cosy enough winner. After the race the Paddy Power Plate (Handicap) was nominated by the trainer as his likely next target. Any doubts about the quicker ground for him were dispelled as he handled it very well. He’s been raised 6lb for Saturday’s success and he’s got to be high on the shortlist for the Plate.
Arkle Novice Chase
Named after the legendary Arkle, the famous three winner of the Gold Cup. This Grade 1 novice chase is traditionally the second race on the opening day of the festival and is run over 2m.
Edwardstone’s win in the Kingmaker Novices Chase on Saturday saw the 8-year-old stay on top of the Arkle ante-post betting. He’s a very professional novice chaser and there’s plenty to like about his clinical jumping. I think he’s got a great chance of the five-timer next month.
The Irish Arkle a week earlier saw Blue Lord hold off the mare Riviere D’etel. Blue Lord is a sold enough jumper and has shown that he does possess tactical speed. However, I was expecting to win more easily than he did at Leopardstown.
Besides Blue Lord trainer Willie Mullins could also run Saint Sam who was third in the Irish Arkle. He shaped like he might be better over a slightly longer distance but he’s only had two starts over fences and is capable of better.
Haut En Couleurs is another possible from the Mullins yard. The 5-year-old came down at the third in the Irish Arkle. However, prior to that he had looked a high-class chase prospect when beating stablemate and subsequent Gentleman De Mee in a beginners’ chase at Leopardstown.
It’s another Mullins runner that takes the eye most though. On Sunday Ciel De Neige made it 3-3 since going over fences with a taking success at Punchestown.
The 7-year-old has several entries at the festival, besides the Arkle, and he’s shorter in the ante post betting for the Grand Annual (10/1) and the Paddy Power Plate (12/1).
Granted he’s got a bit to find with the likes of Edwardstone & Blue Lord on official ratings. However, he’s going the right way, is ground versatile and I could see him getting into the places if talking up his place in the Arkle.
I’m taking a chance that there might be a bit of a boil over in this year’s race and we’ll see a surprise winner. If that’s the case I’m happy to go with Ciel De Neige. Here’s hoping that Willie lets him take his chance.
Arkle Selection: 1pt each way – Ciel De Neige – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Sky Bet (paying 3 places 1/5 odds) (both NRNB).
Thursday Racing
The best of today’s action is at Sandown. With the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2.20) the feature race of a seven-race card which also includes Royal Artillery Gold Cup (2.55) a race for military riders which wasn’t run 12 months ago due to Covid.
There’s also jumps card at Clonmel. where the feature race is a 3m Grade 3 novice hurdle (2:30). My Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle ante post selection Mr Fred Rogers will bid to follow up his December Thurles win. Fontwell and Leicester also race this afternoon and there’s an all-weather evening card at Chelmsford.
I have couple of fancies at Sandown & Leicester.
Sandown
2:20 – Love Envoi has improved with each of her three starts over hurdles and made it 3-3 when winning a novice hurdle at Lingfield last time. All three successes have come on soft/heavy ground so no problem with underfoot conditions. The 6-year-old looks a worthy market leader. Speech Bubble built on the promise of her Lingfield hurdle 2nd when beating 12 rivals at Newbury last month. She has plenty of size about her, will make a chaser, and she handled testing ground well last time. Like the favourite is open to more progress with racing.
1pt win – Speech Bubble – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leicester
2:10 – Éclair Mag, a winner at Market Rasen on his stable debut last January. He hasn’t really built on the promise of his first two starts after joining Richard Bandey and was a well, beaten 7th in the Surrey National last time. A drop back to 3m, going right-handed, and on testing ground could see the 8-year-old revive.
Captain Tommy is only 1-15 over fences but he’s now dropped 3lb below his last mark which came over this trip at Uttoxeter in May. Has run better on his last two starts than his form figures UP suggest. Was still going ok and closing on the leaders when unseating his jockey at Cheltenham and again ran well for a long way but failed to stay 3m 5 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. Sole chase win came on good ground but he did win over hurdles on heavy.
1pt win – Éclair Mag – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John