Hi all,
Sunday sees the 3m 4f Hollywoodbets Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (2:40) at Punchestown and there’s a decent looking card at Exeter, albeit the cards at the latter track are disappointing. Mind you, only 12 have been declared for the Punchestown feature race which is three below the ten-year average for the contest and six less than ran here 12 months ago.
A week is a long time in the life of a tipster and this week has been poor. I’m hoping I can end it on a profitable note. Next week will be on quiet on the tipping front. I’m off tomorrow but there maybe a selection on Tuesday. Watch your inboxes for updates.
I have had a look at two races at Punchestown including the Grand National Trial and three of the races on the Exeter card. I have selections from both meetings.
Today’s betting advice is at the end of the main piece.
Punchestown
The going at Punchestown is being described as soft but the track is being forecast up to 20mm of rain before racing on Sunday.
The Punchestown card get underway with the P.P. Hogan Cross Country Chase (1:40). Why do I mention that? Well, since 2005 four winners of the Cross-Country race at the Cheltenham Festival ran in this race prior to going to success the festival. So, it may pay to keep an eye on the race.
The next race on a seven-race card is a 2m novice chase (2:10) which sees the Willie Mullions trained Ciel De Neige bid for a hat trick over the fence. His biggest rival could be You Raised Me Up who was rated only 3lb the Mullins horse over hurdles and he receives 7lb from him today. The 9-year-old made a very promising chase debut when an 18 ¼ length 4th of 15 to Ferny Hollow in a Punchestown beginners chase in December. That was his first start for nine months and he wasn’t given to hard race that day and will surely win races over fences.
2:40 – Hollywoodbets Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
If the rain arrives in the forecast amounts that will decrease the chances of The Dabbler who would prefer better ground.
Last year’s winner The Big Dog is 8lb higher this time around and need soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best. A line can be drawn on his effort when pulling up in the Welsh Grand National. He made a bad mistake at halfway that day and a thorough stamina test suits the 9-year-old
Alfa Mix was a neck 2nd of 9 here, over 2m 6f, two starts back before disappointing in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The 7-year-old is better than that run and has only had six starts over fences.
Champagne Platinum was a useful staying handicap hurdler when with Nicky Henderson finishing a 5th of 22 in the Pertemps Final at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. He put in his best performance over the larger obstacles when getting up in the final strides to win a 3m beginners chase at Navan 22-days ago
Gordon Elliott saddles three: Floueur, Coko Beach & Death Duty.
Floueur overcame a mistake at the last to win a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse (good to yielding) 15-days ago. That win came over an extended 2m 5 ½ f but the 7-year-old shapes like stayer and could well improve plenty for today’s trip. Ground versatile and could be ahead of the handicappers.
Coko Beach won last season’s Thyestes Handicap Chase off 8lb lower. No issues with soft ground and Shane Fitzgerald take off a handy 5lb. Stamina for 3m 4f to be proven and he didn’t seem to stay 3m 5f on his to goes at that trip. Might stay if he gets an uncontested lead out in front.
Death Duty never fulfilled his Grade 1 winning novice potential after an injury kept him off the racecourse for two years. Off for another 393-days before a promising 7 ¼ -length 5th of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. Not as good when 7th of 18 in the Thyestes Handicap Chase 17-days ago.
Stones And Roses won a 3m 1f handicap chase here on heavy ground last season. Off the track for 11 months and likely in need of the run when a 11 ½ length 4th of 11 over C&D in November. Was close-up and still travelling nicely when unseating his rider at the 9th in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase last rime.
Brace Yourself is having his first start since May but fitness shouldn’t be an issue as he’s 3-5 when returning from a 121+ day layoff. Ground versatile, he stays 3m 5f and needs respecting.
Verdict: If the rain arrives it’s a positive for last year’s winner The Big Dog. Gordon Elliott has a strong hand but Floueur looks the most likely one. I think there’s a decent staying handicap pot in Stones And Roses. Brace Yourself is best caught fresh and connections saddled the winner of the race in 2016.
4:10 – Itsnotinit relished the heavy ground when winning at Limerick last time. He’s up 8lb for that success but the first-time blinkers are applied today and provided he doesn’t require bottomless ground should go well again.
Salmanino is one of the least exposed in the field. He’s only had five career starts and made a winning handicap debut over C&D last time. The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that win but can remain competitive provided the ground is soft.
Robinstown has improved for stepping up to 2m 6f+ on his last two starts and put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a 2-length 2nd of 16 at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. It was good to soft that day and so drying ground would likely enhance the 7-year-old’s chance.
Young Dev put in his best performance of the season so far when a 3-length 3rd of 11 at Fairyhouse last month. Mark McDonagh takes off a handy 7lb which makes the 8-year-old of plenty of interest here.
Exeter
The going at the Devon track is being described as good to soft at the time of writing. However, it worth noting that there could be up to 20mm of rain on Saturday & Sunday which could see the going ease a bit further.
Stage Star could be a very short price in the Listed Virgin Bet Novices’ Hurdle (3:00). The Grade 1 Challow Novice Hurdle winner’s connections will be disappointed if he’s not up to winning this.
3:30 – How much rain falls before post time could be the deciding factor in this Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier which has attracted just the seven runners.
Previous course winner Emmpressive Lady made it 3-7 over hurdles when showing that she was all about stamina when outstaying six rivals at Kempton at Christmas. Genuinely soft ground suits the mare and despite a 5lb rise in the weights she looks a worthy favourite if the rain arrives.
Riggs put in an excellent effort when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Dans Le Vent in Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock two starts back. Ran to bad to be true in a Warwick qualifier last time, The cheekpieces go on for the first time today and if you ignore his Warwick run, he’s got a big chance.
Eminent Poet returns from 820-day layoff. Seven of eight career wins have come heavy ground so he will probably need the heavens to open but he’s on a good mark if he has retained most of his old ability.
4:00 – Seven mares are set to go to post for this Listed Chase. The bookies early bird favorite is Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess. The 10-year-old has won both this season’s starts and is top of the official ratings. She deserves to head the market and the forecast rain enhances her claims.
Chilli Filli is 3lb below the favourite on official ratings. She won a Listed Mares Chase at Market Rasen on his seasonal return before finishing a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to the useful Silver Forever in another Listed race at Newbury last time. Unlike the favourite she may prefer the rain to stay away.
Three of the seven runners are trained by Venetia Williams Kapga De Lily, Destinee Royale and Top And Drop. Should the rain arrive, I could see Destinee Royale going well. She was jumping and travelling well that day when falling five out Cheltenham two starts back. Was never really travelling when pulled up in the Somerset National 24-days ago. Ran like something was amiss that day and she’s capable of better run here.
4:30 – It’s the first leg of the 2022 Veterans’ Chase Series. Just the seven have been declared for the race but you can give most of them some sort of chance.
Run To Milan’s best three RPR’s have been posted over C&D and the 10-year-old posted a career best when a ½ length 2nd of 9 over C&D last month. He’s up 2lb for that effort but this offers him a good chance of a second success over fences.
Jerrysback has got the ability to win a handicap chase like this but tends to make at least one serious mistake in his races. Best effort this season when a 9 ¼ length 3rd of 13 to Annsam in a better race at Ascot two starts back. Not so good in Warwick’s Classic Chase last time but is now qualified for veterans’ chases.
Venetia Williams saddles a couple of live contenders in Belami Des Pictons & Aso. Belami Des Pictons returned from a 21-month absence to finish an encouraging 6 length 4th of 14 to Snow Leopardess at Bangor in November. However, he didn’t build on that promise on his next start when 6th (4/1 fav) in the Ascot race won by Annsam. Has been given a 57-day break and could be set for a big run and will be suited by any further ease in the ground
Sir Ivan has finished third in the last two running’s of the Veterans Chase Finals. The 12-year-old can normally be relied upon to run in his race in these types of contests but there are likely to be treated horses in the lineup.
Elegant Escape hasn’t won since landing the 2018 Welsh Grand National. The 10-year-old has just had the three starts since finishing 11th of 12 in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup. He pulled up in this season’s Welsh National but posted a more encouraging effort when 3rd of 5 to Yala Enki at Taunton 22-days ago. Down to a good mark and will appreciate any further ease in the ground.
Betting Advice:
Punchestown
2:40 – 1pt win – Floueur – 9/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Stones And Roses – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – 1pt win – Salmanino – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Exeter
4:00 – 1pt win – Destinee Royale – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John