Hi all,
Running late this morning. I have selections are from Kempton, Bangor and Meydan for you today.
Kempton
4:05 – Smarty Wild’s sole chase win came here over an extended 2m 4 ½ f last January and he posted a near career best effort when a 2-length 2nd of 8 over C&D last month. He’s down to a winnable mark and seemed to show that stays 3m last time. A slightly better price than I expected and should go well dropped a notch in class here.
Ami Debois is on a losing run that dates back to December 2017 but he’s put in plenty of good performances in the meantime. None more so than when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to Double Shuffle (who also runs here) over C&D last January. Got a fine front running ride that day and but for a couple of mistakes at the last fences would probably have held onto win. Down the field and likely in need of the run when 6th of 10 at Chepstow in December. Big price here but the 12-year-old is weighted to go close if in good shape today.
Double Shuffle love it around Kempton. Three of his best four RPR’s have come over C&D and they don’t include last year’s success here. The 11-year-old has looked a bit laboured on his three starts this season including when a well beaten fifth in the race that Smarty Wild finished runner-up. The ground might have been softer than ideal last time and hopes are pinned on today’s sounder surface and the application of the first time cheekpieces reviving his fortunes.
Bangor
2:30 – No Rematch takes a drop-in class after pulling up in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. That’s now two none competitions this season for the 8-year-old. He looks nicely treated on last season’s best chase form. The ground will suit and he should stay the trip but does need to bounce back.
Behindthelines got outpaced in the back straight when a 6 ½ length 3rd of 7 at Ayr last time. That was over 3m and he stayed on all the way to the line. Shaped like he needs a marathon trip so the step up to 3m 5f should suit.
At the prices the value could be Ecossais. A five-time winner over the larger obstacles. The 8-year-old put in a seasonal best when a 3-length 2nd of 6 at Fakenham in December. He seemed to stay 3m 5f that day and is now down to his last winning mark.
Meydan
There’s a good six race card at the Winter Carnival today.
2:35 – Alignak a useful performer when trained by Sir Michael Stoute, won a Listed race at Chepstow in September 2020. Looks to be steadily hitting form for new trainer Jamie Osbourne and has run well on both his starts in Meydan this year, including when a 5 ½ length 2nd of 12 over 1m 6f two weeks ago. Would have finished closer that day but was slowly away and was forced wide on the turn. Jockey Saffie Osborne couldn’t claim 5lb last time which she can today and this could well have been the plan for the 6-year-old. Expected to go close despite the drop back to 1m 4f.
3:45 – Pierre Lapin looked a smart prospect as a juvenile when trained by Roger Varian winning his first two starts including the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. Now with Adrian McGuiness he’s hasn’t matched his 2-year-old form since but was a 3-length 4th of 16 in a valuable 7f at Leopardstown in September. Struggled on his first start here when 9th of 14 but that was over 6f. That was his first start since October so was entitled to the need run last time. Not weighted out of this and can get into the money.
4:55 – Last year’s winner Lord Glitters will be popular choice here and if he gets a good gallop won’t be far away in his bid for back to successes. However, preference is for Bedouin’s Story to bounce back from a below par run here three weeks ago. Last year’s Cambridgeshire winner was subjected to hard race by jockey Frankie Dettori that day when he realized this mount couldn’t win. Like Lord Glitters he needs a good pace to chase but if he gets it better expected from the 7-year-old who’s trainer has saddled the winner of this race five times since 2013.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
4:05 – 0.5pts each way – Ami Debois – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds) and 0.5pts win Double Shuffle – 14/1 @ Bet365
Bangor
2:30 – 1pt win – Ecossais – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Meydan
2:35 – 1pt win – Alignak – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – 0.5pts each way – Pierre Lapin – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:55 – 1pt win – Bedouin’s Story – 11/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet
Cheers
John