Hi all,
All eyes on the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend with four Grade 1’s on the card and most of the races are likely to have an impact on the ante post betting for next months Cheltenham Festival.
The action this side of the Irish Sea is decent even if the field sizes for the ITV races haven’t really held up due to the lack of any significant recent rain.
On the weather front. I notice there has been a few subtle changes on rainfall this weekend. Sandown isn’t expecting more than trace. However, Musselburgh could see up to 10mm on Saturday which should help maintain its ground for the Sunday card. Meanwhile Leopardstown which has been putting on buckets of water to get some decent ground for the Dublin Racing Festival could receive up to 13mm of rain on Saturday and Sunday morning.
Today’s preview focuses on the Dublin Racing Festival and have I preview all seven races on the card. As ever my betting advice is at the bottom of the main piece.
Where else to begin but the Dublin Racing Festival.
Leopardstown
1:05 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 6f
Hollow Games, finished a neck behind Grand Jury when third in a 2m 4f Grade 1at Naas last month. The pair re-oppose here but the first named is 9/4 and the latter a best priced 11/2. Both are open to further improvement for the step up to 2m 6f. Willie Mullins saddled last year’s winner Gaillard Du Mesnil and is represented by Bronn who made a winning start to his hurdle career when beating 17 rivals at Naas last month. Takes a big step in distance here and is capable of further progress.
1:35 – Racing TV “12 Euros Per Month This Weekend Only” Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Just the nine go to the post for a race that could have a big bearing on next months Triumph Hurdle.
Fil Dor is the second favourite for the Triumph and he comes into the race after winning his first three starts over hurdles since joining Gordon Elliott. The latest of those successes came in a Grade 2 over C&D over Christmas and he will take plenty of beating. Vauban a winner of a Listed race when trained in France was well backed to make a winning hurdle debut for Willie Mullins but he finished a ½ length 2nd of 20 to Pied Piper at Punchestown. The winner impressed when winning at Cheltenham last Saturday. He could be open any amount of an improvement. Mullins also saddles Icare Allen who comfortably landed a juvenile hurdle over C&D on his stable debut in December and is another who is capable of more improvement.
2:10 – Patrick Ward & Co Solicitors Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Ferny Hollow is out for the season because of an injury but Willie Mullins has a strong hand in the 2m novice chase division. Indeed, he has three of the six declared runners: Blue Lord, Haut En Couleurs, Saint Sam. Blue Lord has won both his starts over fences and looks a worthy favourite. Haut En Couleurs looked a smart chasing prospect when beating two stablemates over C&D on his chase debut. Saint Sam was equally as impressive when beating nine rivals at Fairyhouse on his debut over fences at Fairyhouse last month. He’s another open to plenty of progress over the larger obstacles. The Gordon Elliott trained Riviere D’Etel won here first three starts over fences before finishing a 1 ½ length runner-up to Ferny Hollow in a C&D Grade 1 over Christmas. Her mares allowance puts her firmly in the mix although the Mullins trio are probably capable of more improvement.
2:40 – Paddy Power “I’d Love A Can But Pints Are Cheaper” Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m
A twenty-four-runner field and it looks a cracker of a race with a fair few who could be head of their marks. The four of the first five home in a Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle over C&D reoppose here.
Panda Boy made it 2-5 over hurdles when running out a 3 ¼ winner that day. The step up to 3m suited the 5-year-old who is unexposed as a staying hurdler. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but is going the right way.
He will do well to confirm form with the third Futurum Regem who gets 6lb from Panda Boy for a 4 ¼ length beating. He’s another inform handicap hurdler who shouldn’t be far away again.
A Great View was 4th in that race. He came further back that day and is handicapped to go get closer to both Panda Boy and Futurum Regem today. The 10-year-old finished 3rd in this race in 2020, off 10lb higher and has each way claims.
Dunboyne was 1 length behind A Great View in 5th. He was the eyecatcher of the race, given he didn’t get the best of passages on the home turn and I put him up for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham after that run.
Unexpected Depth was returning from an 8-month absence when a 14 ½ length ninth to Panda Boy last time. He wasn’t best placed that day and wasn’t knocked about after the last. Will be sharper with that run under his belt and he did finish runner-up in this last year off today’s mark. He’s another with each way claims.
Mark Walsh was on A Great View last time but now opts for the improving Priory Park who bids for the hat trick after wins at Thurles and here over 2m 4f at Christmas. He’s progressive and is bred to improve further for a step up to 3m. Despite a career high mark, the 6-year-old must be high on the shortlist.
Good Time Jonny showed improved form to win a novices’ handicap hurdle here over 2m 4f over Christmas. Up 9lb in a deeper race and needs to improve again to win but was staying on strongly at the finish of his race last time. That gives hope that 3m could suit the 6-year-old. Trainer Tony Martin saddled the winner of this in 2015.
3:15 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Last year’s winner Kemboy is the bookies ante post favourite, a best priced 3/1 and you can understand why. Leopardstown is his track and the 10-year-old advertised his credentials for back-to-back win in the race when a ¾-length 3rd of 8 to Galvin in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over C&D last time.
Paul Nicholls brings over Frodon a best priced 100/30. He’s not getting younger but this looks a winnable race for the 10-year-old. With Kemboy he should at least ensure that we get a good gallop.
Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo. A big disappointment in the King George VI and surely 3m on decent ground will be too short for the 9-year-old.
Besides Kemboy. Willie Mullins also has Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Cilaos Emery among the entries. I’m not sure the latter pair are at their best at 3m.
Asterion Forlonge has come down when still in with a chance on his last two starts in Grade 1 company. He’s clearly got the talent to win a race like this if, and it’s a big if, his jumping holds up. Mind you he will put it all together one day and it could be here.
Gordon Elliott runs Delta Work and Conflated. Delta Work won this in 2019 but hasn’t been seen at his best since that success and was only third in this last year. He shaped with a bit of promise when 5 ¾ length 4th of 5 to Frodon at Down Royal on his seasonal return but was well below his best in the Savills Chase. Very much in the mix if bouncing back to something like his best.
Conflated has a bit to find on ratings and hasn’t always impressed with his jumping in the past. However. he finally got it together in the jumping stakes when winning the valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase (2m 4f) at Navan last time. The 8-year-old looks to be going the right way and holds a Gold Cup entry and could get into the places at big odds.
3:50- Paddy Power “I’m Never Going Back To The Office” Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 1f
A surprisingly small field of just nine given there are €100,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Mt Leinster heads the betting. The 8-year-old has placed on his three starts in beginners’ chases. He makes his handicap chase debut here and looks nicely treated off a mark of 135, if his jumping holds up against more inexperienced rivals.
A Wave Of The Sea won this 12 months ago off 9lb higher. He’s been running well over 3m on his last three starts but if he isn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 2m 1f must be respected with Shane Fitzgerald taking off a handy 5lb.
Grange Walk and Exit Poll were first and second in a C&D handicap over Christmas. The former has since gone onto disappoint at Fairyhouse and needs to jump better than he did last time. Exit Poll has been running consistently well over fences and won’t be far away again with Jack Foley taking off 5lb.
Capuccimix showed improved form to win a handicap chase over the distance at Killarney in July. Off for six months he didn’t jump as well as he did at Killarney but wasn’t out of it when falling three out in the valuable Dan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse won by Dunvegan last month. Needs to jump with more fluency than last time.
4:25 – Goffs Future Stars (C & G) I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m
Facile Vega looked a smart recruit when winning a C&D bumper here at Christmas. A leading fancy for the Cheltenham bumper after that success and is the one to beat here. Stablemate Embassy Gardens also made a winning racecourse debut here over Christmas. However, that success came over 2m 4f and he looks more of long-term prospect and is open to plenty of improvement. Gordon Elliott saddled Envoi Allen to win this in 2019. He relies Itswhatunitesus who comfortably saw off 14 rivals to win on his racecourse debut at Navan in December. The Big Doyen has won both bumper starts. He’s improving and his form looks as good as any here. Both successes have come on good & good to soft ground so ground should be fine for him. Sandor Clegane won by 15-lengths on his racecourse debut at Punchestown in December. He looks a good prospect and showed a good turn of foot to see off his ten rival’s last time.
Sandown
The racing this side of the Irish Sea is good too. It’s good to soft at Sandown for a seven-race card. The feature race is the Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices Chase (2:20) were the exciting L’Homme Presse faces 4 rivals in his bid to make 4-4 over fences.
The ITV cameras are covering five races live from the track starting with the 1:15. I have just focused on those races which I have selections in.
1:15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f
Just the eight for this handicap chase but you can make a case for seven of the eight runners. Gunsight Ridge runner-up to L’Homme Presse two starts back built on that performance when winning over C&D. He was keeping on strongly that day to beat Bun Doran by 1 ¾ lengths. The runner-up gets 4lb today and is entitled to get closer here. The winner is capable of better but the runner-up is well handicapped on best of his form. It was heavy ground last month and both horses did have hard races.
Dolos won this race in 2019 & 2020 and was only beaten a length here 12 months ago. He has hardly beaten a rival on five subsequent starts though which means he’s 15lb lower than he was when he finished runner-up in this last year. Stablemate Tamaroc Du Mathan is having his first run since pulling up in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October. He’s had wind surgery since and if the breathing operation has had the desired effect the former Kempton Grade 2 Novice Chase winner would have a chance. He goes well right-handed and will be suited by today’s better ground.
Frero Banbou won over C&D (good to soft) last March and recorded his second win over fences when coming from behind to beat six rivals at Lingfield 15-days ago. It was heavy ground last time but provided this race doesn’t come to quick he’s got to be respected off 6lb higher.
Rikoboy returned from a 10-month absence with a good 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Wincanton last month. He races off the same mark here and looks to have returned to action on a competitive mark. He will be fitter for his Wincanton run and is big contender here.
2:55 – Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 7 ½ f
With £100,000 in guaranteed prize money Sandown will be delighted they have attracted a competitive field of 18 runners for this valuable handicap hurdle. It’s the most competitive race this side of the Irish Sea and a cracker of race.
Ree Okka a winning pointer has just had the three starts over hurdles. A runner-up on his Aintree hurdles debut. He’s since gone onto win at Chepstow and Kempton. Handicap debut for the 6-year-old who lacks experience but is open to more improvement than most. He could be a Grade 1 horse in handicap and will like the ground.
Beauport won a heavy ground valuable novices’ handicap hurdle here over 2m 4f in March Has maintained his improvement this season finishing runner-up on both starts, including when ½-length 2nd of 11 to Dashel Drasher at Newbury last time. Looks set to improve for a step up to 3m and high on the shortlist although he may prefer softer ground.
Orbys Legend proved his stamina for 3m when winning at Wincanton last time. He’s 2-3 over hurdles this season seems ground versatile. Up 5lb for his latest success but is going the right way and should be there or thereabouts.
Dans Le Vent won the valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (3m) at Haydock in November. He did best of those coming from behind when a 7 ½ length 5th of 19 to Cobblers Dream in Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time. Return to 3m will suit the 9-year-old and he isn’t out of this.
Green Book was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite for the Lanzarote but was badly hampered at the second and unseated his rider. A stayer on the flat this ground will suit and he’s not discounted.
Call Me Lord is one of the most experienced of the field. He did best of those who ran in the Lanazarote when a 7-length 3rd of 19. Another to come from midfield that day and was doing his best work at the finish after not getting the best of passages two out. Has winning form here over shorter but should stay 3m and has been given a serious chance by the handicapper.
Jesuitique has won three of his four starts since coming over from France. He showed a decent turn of foot for a stayer when winning at Haydock last time. Has been hiked up 10lb for that success but that was his first start at 3m. He beat Beauport here 1 ½ lengths in November but that one is much better off at the weights here.
Irish raider Born Patriot goes well on a sound surface and was an excellent 3 length 2nd of 14 to Kansas City Chief in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Cheltenham when last seen in action on October. He’s well suited to a stamina test and isn’t out of this although the Pertemps Hurdle could be the target.
3:30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
Farinet made it 2-2 here when winning over 2m 4f last month. Up 6lb but he’s progressive and shapes like he will get 3m. Both wins have come on softer ground though so today’s better ground does pose another question of the 7-year-old. If he handles it, he’s the one to beat. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Otago Bay to win this in 2017.
Five Star Getaway a very progressive handicap chaser last spring. He bounced back to form when winning a 3m handicap chase at Kempton. He’s only been raised 4lb for that Kempton win and given he’s unexposed over 3m looks capable of better over the distance. Has won here in the past, the ground should be fine and goes well in small fields.
Linelee King looked an improver over fences when landing a novice handicap chase at Aintree (good to soft) back in November and looked a shade unlucky when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 4 at Ayr last time. Given he made a bad mistake four out that day he did well to get as close as he did to the winner. Stayed 3m over hurdles so open to more improvement for the step up to the distance over fences.
Deise Aba bids for a hat trick of wins in the race. Given his C&D form he can’t be safely ruled out but both those wins came on much softer ground than he’s likely to get today.
Le Milos jumped well when making 2-5 over fences when winning at Exeter on New Years Day. Up 9lb and in a better race but he’s only had two starts over 3m so could be capable of better. Granted it was heavy last time but did win on good going over hurdles so should be ok on today’s ground.
All four of Undersupervision’s chase starts have been at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old has been running with promise over fences and remains with potential. Just a 6-year-old he’s got the size to make a chaser. A mark of 134 looks workable and if the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect he could go well.
Musselburgh
Day one of Scottish Cheltenham Trials fixture. Three of the races are live on ITV and here’s a brief look at them.
2:05 – bet365 Auld Yin Conditional Jockeys’ Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Veterans’ Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 6f
Cool Mix is a consistent handicap chaser 3rd of 7 at Doncaster last time. Fifth of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National and is back down to his last winning mark when beating Sky Pirate at Wetherby in October 2020. Must have a good chance on his first start in a veteran’s chase but isn’t the easiest to win with.
Glen Forsa finished 8 lengths and one place behind Cool Mix at Doncaster. He had jumped well that day but doesn’t quite stay 3m so will be better suited by the drop back to 2m 6f and can reverse placings with Cool Mix.
Broken Quest bounced back to form when a 3-length 2nd of 8 to Destin d’Ajonc in handicap at Chepstow last time. Slightly flattered by his proximity to an easy winner but was at least doing his best work at the finish. Capable of going close if in the mood.
2:40 – bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f
Fiveandtwenty lost her unbeaten record at Musselburgh when a well beaten 4th of 7 to Tommy’s Oscar over C&D on New Year’s Day. She’s better than she’s been able to show on either start this season and better is expected.
Glory And Honour makes a quick returnafter finishing a 9-length 5th of 12 to Cormier in handicap at Cheltenham last Saturday. That was a good confidence booster after the 6-year-old took a heavy fall on his chase debut at Ffos Las two starts back. No issues with the ground and he goes well right-handed. Definite contender for a trainer who saddled the winner of this in 2020.
Paul Nicholls has won this race twice sine 2017 so his runner Wild Max must be respected. The 7-year-old is back over hurdles here after pulling up on his chase debut at Ludlow in December. Out of form since winning at Doncaster in December 2020 but he looks well handicapped if back to form here.
Socialist Agenda a three-time good ground bumper winner last season. He’s shaped with plenty of promise on his first two starts in novice hurdles before beating four rivals at Catterick (soft) on New Year’s Day. Looks the sort to improve with experience and could go well on his handicap debut.
3:45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 7 ½ f
One of my ante post selections for the Edinburgh National Get Out Of The Gate wasn’t declared on Thursday but the other selection Step Back does run but sadly won’t now be ridden Jack Tudor. I already covered the race on Wednesday but I’m still taking on favourite Highland Hunter. Having lost one selection, I’m going to take a chance with Captain Cattistock. The 9-year-old proved he stayed 4m when winning a hunter chase at Cheltenham in April. Talented but can race lazily ne ran better than his pulled up suggests at Haydock in December. That was his first start for seven months and he ran well for a long way before tiring badly four out on very testing ground. Not one for maximum confidence but capable of a good run off a low weight.
Betting Advice:
Plenty of fancies today and to be fair in the 2:45 at Leopardstown and 2:55 at Sandown I could easily have had four or five picks.
Leopardstown
2:45 – 1pt win – Panda Boy – 13/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Futurum Regem – 16/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – 0.5pts each way – Conflated – 50/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
Sandown
1:15 – 1pt win – Rikoboy – 7/1 @ Bet365
2:55 – 1pt win – Ree Okka – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Orbys Legend – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Musselburgh
2:05 – 1pt win – Broken Quest – 7/1 @ Bet365
2:40 – 1pt win – Socialist Agenda – 7/1 @ Coral
3:45 – 1pt win – Captain Cattistock – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John