Hi all,
An excellent final day at the Chester May Festival with two wins from Heart Of Soul & Coeur De Lion with Who Dares Wins chipping in to land the each way part of the bet in the Chester Cup.
The rain that fell. More than expected over the three-days made punting difficult we still managed to get 4 winners and two placed efforts. All in all, a profitable few days on the ‘Roodee’.
We have Derby & Oak’s Trials at Lingfield on Saturday. A good card at Ascot with the Victoria Cup a 7f handicap arguably the big betting race of the day. At Haydock we have a very rare mixed card of flat and jumps action. The highlight of Haydock’s card is the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle.
Let’s begin this preview at Ascot.
Ascot
2:15 – We have a recent Doncaster eyecatcher in Autumn War running in this race. The step up to 1m 4f will be in his favour. However, the soft ground is an unknown. The trainer Clive Cox has his horses in winning form there are no doubts about the going for his runner Now Children. The 5-year-old won two of his five starts last season, including on soft ground at Goodwood before finishing down the field in the November Handicap on his final start when the beaten favourite. Returns from a 182-day absence but won first time up last season off an even bigger lay off. He’s 2 wins from 2 runs going right handed. Starts this season 6lb higher than for his last win but can go well.
Autumn War – 15/2 @ William Hill & Coral
Now Children – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
3:25 – The filly Adorable is having her first start for trainer William Haggas, since moving from the Mick Channon stable. The 4-year-old won a listed race last year and finished 3rd in a Group 3 at Deauville. Bella Ragazza won three of her seven starts last season. The 4-year-old seemed to handle good to soft well when putting up a career best when winning a Newmarket, Class 2 handicap 265-days ago. First run since then and up 8lb demands more from the filly but more improvement as a 4-year-old can’t be ruled out.
Bella Ragazza – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes
4:00 – Tote Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Just a field of 25 go to post for this valuable handicap. You can give more than half of the field a chance. Here are the five on my shortlist in no particular order are:
Kynren, drops back to 7f today. Has run some great races in mile handicaps, including when a neck second at York last August and on his seasonal reappearance when second in the Lincoln Handicap. New trip looks interesting if the 5-year-old gets a decent pace to chase. Has the soft ground in his favour 2 wins from 4 runs 3 placed.
Cape Byron, returns from 217-day absence but did win first time up in 2017 so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. The 5-year-old is proven in big field C&D handicaps and ended last season with a ½ length second to Ripp Orf back in September, off 2lb lower and followed that up when finishing 7th of 15, when favourite, in October. Should go well but ideally may prefer a slightly sounder surface.
Presidential, took a soft ground 7f handicap at Newmarket in good style last November off 6lb lower. The 5-year-old made a highly encouraging reappearance when 3rd of 10, on good to firm, back at Newmarket 23-days ago. The second & fourth have since gone onto win, so the form of the race is working out well. He did best of those held up and a return to a softer surface should be in his favour.
Blue Mist, trained by Roger Charlton, is one of the least exposed runners in the field having just had the seven starts. The 4-year-old, twice a winner. The latter of those victorious came here over a mile in October. He ended last season when 4th of 10 in a strong mile handicap at Kempton. A strongly run 7f like this could play to his strengths although he maybe better over a mile. He has the potential to do better at four but of concern would be the soft ground.
Taurean Star, there are no worries about the going for the him. The 6-year-old also likes these big field handicaps where he can best deploy his come from behind style of running. A winner over 7f on good to soft at Goodwood 12 months ago, off 2lb lower. Quiet return to action at Kempton but the trainer’s horses are going well at present so better can be expected. Needs a good pace to chase and some luck in the run but if he gets them, he can get into the money.
A couple of eyecatchers also take their chance in the contest.
Ripp Orf last year’s winner attempts the double he’s got a great record here over the straight mile in these big field handicaps – 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed. He ran well to be second over C&D on soft ground back in October, but he remains for a me a better horse on a sounder surface. He’s on a competitive mark and I’m reluctant to leave him out of calculations despite slight going reservations.
Green Power steps up from sprint distances for his first start over 7f. No issues with the ground. If he stays, he’s on a winnable mark but this is a tough race to test the 4-year-old’s stamina.
Verdict: If Blue Mist handles the ground, he’s a contender. The soft ground could blunt the speed of Cape Byron. Presidential has returned to action in great form and should appreciate the return to an easier surface. Kynren always seems to come up short in these races but if he gets a good pace to chase the drop back to 7f could do the trick. Taurean Star shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s on a competitive mark if he gets the race run to suit has each way claims.
Taurean Star – 25/1 @ William Hill & Coral (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Blue Mist – 12/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Haydock
3:10 – Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m
A field of 15 are declared to go to post for this valuable handicap hurdle. I’m going for a couple of selections at big prices.
Arthington, finished 2nd of 16 over C&D 21-days ago. The 6-year-old looks like he will get the same good ground he got last time. Up 4lb in a better race but he seems to be progressing with racing and trainer Seamus Mullins’ runners in the race have gone well in the past. He had the runner-up in last years race and third home in 2015. Each chance at a big price.
Thistimenextyear, creeps into the race at the bottom of the weights. The 5-year-old won at Fakenham two starts back and then put in a career best when runner-up, beaten a head, in a big field handicap hurdle at Aintree 35-days ago on good ground. Up 6lb for that effort so needs to progress but there’s every chance he can improve further. Useful Irish Conditional Darragh O’Keeffe keeps the ride.
Arthington -20/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Thistimenextyear – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
4:55 – The early favourite Politicise looked a shade unlucky at Musselburgh on his seasonal return. He was slowly away and on day when it was hard to make up ground from the rear he did well to finish as close as he did. The 4th in that race won a Chester this week and the winner has also gone in again. Politicise is open to plenty of improvement and looks the one they have to beat in this 1m handicap.
House Of Kings, trained by Clive Cox, looks a worthy opponent. The 3-year-old built on the promise of his first two starts last season when winning a novice at Leicester back in September. Starts the season on what looks a workable mark off 86 and also races in the first-time blinkers. Trainer has his horses among the winners (22% win strike rate in the past 14-days) and he also does well with the runners he sends to Haydock, including his 3-year-olds – 6 winners from 19 runners 32% +13.83 in the past 5-years.
House Of Kings – 9/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
2:30 – RaceBets Derby Trial Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) – 1m 3f
Aidan O’Brien will strengthen his grip on the Epsom Derby should favourite Anthony Van Dyck make a winning seasonal reappearance in this Derby Trial. The son of Galileo won three of his first four starts as a juvenile before finishing runner-up to Quarto in a Group 1 at the Curragh. He subsequently finished 3rd to Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst. Ended his 2-year-old season when a disappointing 9th of 14 at the Breeders Cup. On form he’s the one to beat. Plenty of speed on the dam side means he’s not guaranteed to stay this far.
Cap Francois, finished runner-up to another O’Brien horse in Derby Trial at Epsom17-days ago. It was a satisfactory return to action by the son of Frankel. He didn’t seem totally at home on the Epsom undualtions but was staying on well at the finish to get within half a length of the winner. Today’s extra furlong will suit the colt and if the favourite’s stamina fails, he could be able to take advantage.
Eagles By Day, trained by Michael Bell is an intriguing runner. The colt showed stamina was his strong suit when staying on strongly to win a Salisbury maiden 13-days ago. By a Derby winner in Sea The Stars, He’s also a first foal of tough staying racemare, Missunited who won a 1m 6f Group 3 at Goodwood, was also runner-up in the Ascot Gold Cup in 2014 and put in a career best over hurdles to win the Galway Hurdle on heavy ground in 2013. This race looks a logical next step to see if he’s a genuine Derby contender.
Eagles By Day – 6/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John