Hi all,
It’s the final day of the Lingfield Winter Million Festival this afternoon. The highlight of a seven-race card is the 2m 6f Fleur De Lys Chase (3:00) which has £150,000 in guaranteed prize money for the seven declared runners which will likely be six as Fanion D’Estruval is running at Ascot on Saturday.
At Thurles the lack of any significant recent rain means the going is now good to yielding. Allaho faces just three rivals in his bid to win the Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (3:15). Earlier on the card progressive staying novice hurdler Gerri Colombe bids to enhance his Cheltenham Festival Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle claims in the novice hurdle (1:30). You can see the best of the action on ITV4 who are covering five races from Lingfield and two from Thurles this afternoon.
I’m away on short break in Wiltshire (Monday to Friday) so there will be any selections this week until Thursday. That said its Thyestes Day at Gowran Park and the big race the Thyestes Handicap Chase is a race I like. There look to be a strong entry for this year’s race and I will have a selection or two in the race. So, watch your inboxes from Thursday onwards.
Today’s preview concentrates on Lingfield but there are also selections from Thurles and Warwick. I begin by looking at the two races on the Lingfield card.
Lingfield
3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 6f
Given the prize money it’s a shade disappointing that just seven have been declared for the most valuable race of the day and the field is likely to be down to just six as Fanion D’Estruval seems unlikely to run after his brave effort at Ascot yesterday.
Dashel Drasher heads the betting a winner over hurdles at Newbury last month. He has a 6lb to give away here but he’s the form pick for me. No issues with the ground and this 2m 6f distance should suit the 9-year-old. His likeable attitude means he will always be a threat in races like this even giving weight away.
Bristol De Mai will relish the heavy ground but you must wonder if 2m 6f will be short on the short side for the 11-year-old. Like the favourite he also has 6lb penalty to carry here.
Itchy Feet hasn’t always been the most foot perfect over fences and he isn’t the easiest to win with as he hasn’t won over fences since his novice days. Can’t really fault either of his efforts this season though finishing runner-up at Aintree and occupying the same position behind Bravemansgame at Haydock 64-days ago.
Master Tommytucker has 2 lengths to find with Dashel Drasher on their running at Ascot last February but can’t be totally dismissed if his jumping holds up.
Two For Gold is another who will like the ground and shouldn’t have any problem dropping back to 2m 6f after winning a handicap at Doncaster over three miles last time.
3:35 – racehorselotto.com Surrey National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 5f
No issues with field size for this marathon race with fifteen declared to meet the starter and you can give seven or eight of them good chances.
Pemberley a winner at Warwick two starts back continued in form when 7 lengths 2nd of 15 to Go Whatever in the Sussex National at Plumpton three weeks ago. He gets 7lb from the winner here and I think he can finish ahead of Go Whatever this time.
Laskalin had plenty of winning form on heavy and very soft ground when trained in France. Hasn’t translated his best French form to the UK on his three starts since joining Venetia Williams. However, the handicapper has dropped him 13lb since the start of the season and his 2nd of 9 at Exeter last time was step in the right direction. Totally unexposed over marathon trips and could be well in if he stays 3m 5f.
Smooth Stepper never looked like winning but a very strong pace meant he was staying on to finish 3rd of 11 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. No problems with the distance for the 13-year-old and he’s 4lb below his last winning mark.
Fado Des Brosses jumped well when winning a beginners’ chase at Hereford last December but his jumping let him down at Exeter on his next start. Ran a bit better than his 27-length 7th of 16 at Haydock suggest on his seasonal return last month. Another who’s unexposed over fences and marathon distances and both career wins have come on heavy ground.
Éclair Mag a heavy ground winner of handicap chase on his first start in the UK at Market Rasen 12 months ago. He hasn’t hit form on her three starts this season but was sent off the 5/2 favourite for the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day before falling at the 10th. That market support suggests connections think he’s on a good mark.
Defuture Is Bright an improving handicap chaser last season and put in great effort when 3rd of 11 at Haydock two starts back. Ran badly in the first-time blinkers at Fakenham last time and they have been dispensed with here and the cheekpieces return. The 8-year-old showed he stayed an extended 3m 4f at Haydock but 3m 5f on testing may prove too much of a stamina test for him. That said he’s getting down to a winnable mark.
The Galloping Bear a former multiple point winner and 2-2 in hunter chases last season has his ground today. The 9-year-old looked booked for second when falling three out over hurdles at Chepstow on his seasonal return in December. Another unexposed type who on pedigree should stay this sort of trip and not discounted.
Warwick
3:25 – Dubai Way, a decent handicap chaser two seasons back,was an encouraging 17 length 3rd of 10 on his stable debut at Uttoxeter last month. That was the 10-year-old’s first start for ten months so he’s entitled to be sharper with run under his belt. Unproven beyond 2m ¾ but if he stays, he’s handicapped to win races. The cheekpieces that were left off last time return and see him going well.
Thurles
2:05 – I like two in this 1m 7 ½ f handicap hurdle: Whatsnotoknow isn’t the easiest horse to win with but his sole career win came over C&D and he’s run well in better races than this. The 7-year-old was in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider two out in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. Takes a big drop back in distance here but Rachel Blackmore is back in the saddle and her form figures when riding the horse are 2212.
Light Brigade was in good form this time last year winning at Fairyhouse and Naas before putting in a career best when a neck 2nd of 22 in a valuable novice’s handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The 6-year-old hasn’t been at his best on either hurdle start in the autumn but he’s got plenty of ability and is handicapped to win a race like this when everything falls right. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the pre-race betting.
Betting Advice:
Lingfield
3:35 – 1pt win – Pemberley – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – The Galloping Bear – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Warwick
3:25 – 1pt win – Dubai Way – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Thurles
2:05 – 1pt win – Light Brigade – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Whatsnotoknow – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John