Hi all,
Day one of the Winter Million Festival at Lingfield. If you’re lucky enough to be not working today you can watch the best of the action on ITV4 who are broadcasting four races from Lingfield and four from Market Rasen as part of an eight-race programme. Despite the dry weather this week the going at Lingfield is still being described as heavy at Lingfield. So, you can expect the ground to put stamina very much at premium there this afternoon.
Today’s preview just focuses on those races with selections.
Lingfield
1:50 – Trainer Kerry Leehad a welcome winner at Newbury on Thursday and hopefully she can have another won here with Financier. Both the 9-year’s career wins over fences have come on soft ground. The last of them came at Hereford in March off just 4lb higher. Ran very poorly at Ascot on his seasonal return at Ascot last month but has been dropped 4lb for that effort and he’s a much better than he was able to show last time.
3:35 – There’s £52,030 on offer to the winner of this 2m Class 2 handicap hurdle which looks the most competitive race on the Lingfield card. There are three Irish trained runners Carrarea & Sevenna Star, trained by Emmet Mullins and Lucky Maxtrained by Sean Doyle.
Carrarea looks the pick of the Mullins pair with Paul Townend taking the ride. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when a head second of 19 in handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse when last seen in action in November. Likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
Lucky Max has been tremendously progressive on soft and heavy ground on his last three starts winning all three. The latest of those wins came at Cork last month. Granted he’s much higher in the weights compared to last time but I don’t think he’s reached his ceiling just yet and seems the best value of the Irish challengers.
The best of the home contenders look to be Metier and Hudson De Grugy.
Metier is 2-2 heavy ground and he gets that ground for the first time since winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Novice Hurdle at Sandown 12 months ago. He was much better from the 6-year-old than on his seasonal reappearance when 9 ¼ length 4th of 12 to Tritonic in the valuable Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot before Christmas. Big chance here but not missed by the bookmakers who have him joint favourite with Carrarea.
Hudson De Grugy’s form figures on heavy ground are 211. The latest of those wins came over C&D last month. He will relish underfoot conditions and the handicapper has only raised him 3lb for his latest win. The 5-year-old needs to improve again to win again but he might be capable of the required progress.
Verdict: I’m going to take on market leaders Metier and Carrarea with Lucky Max and Hudson De Grugy
Market Rasen
The going at Market Rasen won’t be anywhere near as testing at Lingfield. The going is being described as good to soft for its seven-race card. I have a couple of selections at the Lincolnshire track.
2:05 – I’m going to take a chance here with handicap hurdle debutant Ladykiller. A four-time winner on the flat when trained in Germany, including a Group 3 in October 2019. Hasn’t transferred that level of form on his three starts over hurdles since joining the David Pipe yard in August 2020. A 25-length 3rd of 13 at Newbury last month. He’s shown enough to suggest he can win a race over hurdles and is interesting on his handicap hurdle debut off a mark 109.
3:15 – Hunny Moon built on the promise of her Worcester chase debut when winning over C&D (good to soft) when last seen in action 71-days ago. Today’s good to soft ground suits the 8-year-old and she’s only been raised 3lb for win. Open to further improvement over fences and is the one to beat here.
Betting Advice:
Lingfield
1:50 – 1pt win – Financier – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – 1pt win – Lucky Max – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Hudson De Grugy – 17/2 @ Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
Market Rasen
2:05 – 1pt win – Ladykiller – 5/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – 1pt win – Hunny Moon – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John