Hi all,
The field sizes for the first day of Newbury’s Winter Carnival have held up better than might have been feared. With the seven-race card having attracted 56 runners. I have had a look at five races from Newbury and four of them you can watch live on ITV3. My selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newbury
12:40 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f
Just the four runners for this novice chase. However, all four have good claims.
Miller’s Bank could be considered a surprise favourite given he hails from a small stable. But he looks a worthy one to me. A very useful hurdler who won a good ground handicap hurdle here in March. Before posting a career best when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 11, just a length behind Buzz, in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. The 7-year-old jumped well when making a winning chase debut at Huntingdon last month and is capable of more improvement.
Tea Clipper another with good form over hurdles on a sound surface. The 6-year-old made a winning a chase debut in a 5-runner listed novice chase at Chepstow (good) last month. Looked in a bit of trouble four out that day but his stamina kick in and he showed a good attitude to rally and, in the end, win a shade comfortably. Likely to have his ground although a bit further may prove ideal.
Pic D’Orhy is more exposed than his three rivals, having already had five starts over fences but isn’t dismissed given he’s trained by Paul Nicholls who saddled Clan Des Obeaux to win this in 2016 and Wonderful Charm in 2013.
Nassalam returned from a 7-month lay off to win a 7-runners novice handicap chase at Ascot on his first start over fences. It was soft that day but he does get a handy 4-year-old weight allowance again like he did at Ascot. He only won on the nod last time but he jumped to his left at most of his fences so going left-handed is a positive. A likely improver here if as effective on a sounder surface.
1:50 – Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (The Fulke Walwyn Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Despite just seven runners this could be a race where the form will be worth following with three of the contenders making their chase debut.
Solo made a highly respectable debut over fences when beaten a nose by Nassalam at Ascot last time. He’s been raised 4lb for that effort but will surely win races on the back of that effort.
Fifty Ball was 2nd of 23 in the valuable Betfair Handicap Hurdle here in February. He made a promising chase debut when a 2 ¼ lengths 3rd of 7 to the useful Minella Trump in novice handicap at Sandown 19-days ago. Can win races in the sphere with that experience under his belt.
Nicky Henderson saddled last year’s winner and relies on chase debutant Mister Coffey today. A useful hurdler the 6-year-old looks the type who can do even better over fences this season.
Boothill is very highly regarded by trainer Harry Fry. The 6-year-old a winner of his sole bumper start and his first hurdle start last season. Shaped well when 2½ lengths third of 14 to Soaring Glory in Listed handicap hurdle at Ascot last time. Lightly raced profile means he’s open to plenty of improvement for going chasing.
Venetia Williams is 2-4 with her runners at the meeting since 2016 and she saddles chase debutant L’Homme Presse. The 6-year-old easily won a good ground Chepstow novice hurdle on his first start for the trainer in April. Might well have found the race coming too quick when only 6th of 12 Sandown handicap two weeks later. Another expected to leave his hurdles form behind over the larger obstacles.
2:25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f
It’s good to see that ten have stood their ground for what looks a cracking handicap chase. The one I really like here Umbrigado is now a non-runner.
Fanion D’Estruval is the bookie early bird favourite. The 6-year-old a very useful chaser last season raced like the run was needed when a strong finishing 4th of 8 in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on his seasonal return, just 1 ½ lengths behind recent Paddy Power Handicap Chase winner Midnight Shadow. This distance is needed on good ground and this previous course winner must be high on the shortlist. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Aso to win this in 2018.
Morning Vicar won a novice handicap chase over C&D (good) last November. The 8-year-old didn’t really build on that performance on three starts in better company but ended last season with a win at Perth (good) in April. Back up in class here and 7lb higher than last time but the ground will suit him.
Neville’s Cross is another taking a step up in class here. The 6-year-old seems to have got his act together over fences winning three of his last four starts. Jumping will be tested here but a sound surface means he can’t be easily dismissed.
Phoenix Way is one of the least experienced in the field and clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as the 8-year-old has only had the seven career starts. He won a Warwick novice chase on his seasonal return last season before bursting a blood vessel when pulled up in a Grade 1 novice chase in December. Ended last season with a back to form 14 lengths 4th of 7 to Protektorat in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Probably best fresh and not handicapped out of this on last season’s best chase form.
Colorado Doc has run well on both starts over hurdles this autumn. Ended last season with a handicap chase win at Huntingdon in April. This is tougher and the 10-year-old’s 5lb above his last chase winning mark. Good ground is fine though and he could get in to the places.
Paul Nicholls saddles Amour De Nuit & Eritage. The former is having his first start over fences since February 2019. The latter is 3-6 on good ground and given he’s only had six starts over fences could have more to offer in the sphere.
3:00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m
The feature race of the first day of the Newbury Winter Carnival is the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle. The final declarations came out on Wednesday and just six are set to meet the starter.
At the head of the ante post betting is Paisley Park won the race in 2019 and was only beaten 1 ½ lengths by Thyme Hill in last year’s race. The 9-year-old isn’t as good as he used to be. But as he showed when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 8 to Indefatigable in West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on his seasonal return that he retains plenty of ability. He might be done for toe, on good ground, in a tactical race but it’s worth noting his form figures on his second start are 2111.
The biggest threat to the favourite could come from Lisnagar Oscar. A surprise winner of the 2020 Stayers Hurdle. He didn’t really hit top form last season although he was still travelling kindly when falling at the 7th in last year’s Stayers Hurdle. Shaped with a bit of encouragement over an inadequate 2m 4f when a 9 ½ lengths third of 6 to Brewin’upastorm on his seasonal return at Aintree. Trainer Rebecca Curtis came of the cold list with a couple of winners at the weekend which is a positive.
3:35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m
Eyeofthescorpion has been running consistently well since returning from a winter break in July. The 7-year-old arguably put in a career best last time when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 10 at Ffos Las last time. The ground was soft that day but he’s just as effective on good ground.
Philip Hobbs has a couple of live contenders in Dolphin Square & One For You. Dolphin Square’s best two RPR’s have come over C&D and on good ground. He’s now 3lb lower than when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 here last November. Ran on to finish, set too much to do from the rear, when a ½ length 2nd of 7 to Khan at Lingfield on his seasonal return. A thorough stayer he’s not of this if he gets a decent gallop to chase.
One For You improved for the step up to 2m 7f when winning at Market Rasen on his final start of last season. The 6-year-old seemed to progress again when a 3 ¼ lengths 3rd of 10 over C&D (good) on his return to action earlier this month. He’s just had the six starts over hurdles and has scope for better of his present mark.
Alrightjack returned from a 5-month lay off to register an easy success at Fontwell 3-weeks ago. He’s up 4lb and in a deeper race here. Stamina for 3m is a bit of an unknown for the 7-year-old but he’s got place claims.
Certainly Red ended last season with an improved success at Wincanton and returned action last month a similar vein when seemingly doing just enough to win at Chepstow after an 8-month break. Up 6lb for that success and up a couple of notches in class but given his present trajectory another win can’t be ruled out.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
1:50 – 1pt win – L’Homme Presse – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – 1pt win – Lisnagar Oscar – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – 1pt win – One For You – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Certainly Red – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John