Hi all,
Dans Le Vent’s win in the handicap hurdle at Haydock enabled the service to make a small profit on Saturday in addition to Friday’s much bigger one. I must admit I only out Dans Le Vent up as 0.5pt selection due to the jockey propensity to hold up her horses up at the back. More fool me as I thought Isobel Williams gave the winner an excellent hold up ride.
Onto Sunday’s action and the big race of the day is across the Irish Sea at Navan with the latest renewal of the historic Troytown Handicap Chase (2:50).
I have a couple of selections in the big race in addition a couple of other fancies at Navan & Exeter. First though an in-depth look at the big race at Navan.
Navan
2:50 – Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m
Its good ground at Navan and which means only seventeen have been declared for this year’s race which is almost five below the 10-year race average.
Looking at some of the key trends:
Horse’s returned 14/1 & bigger are – 1 winner from 145 runners 14 placed
Gordon Elliott is the top most winning trainer in the past ten years with – 4 winners from 53 winners 8 placed. He does like to throw plenty of darts at the race though. Which means if you had backed all these runners, you would have made a £13.00 loss to a £1 level stake. Although he’s 4 winners from 12 runners +28 5 placed with those sent off 12/1 & under.
Elliott saddles seven of the seventeen runners with four of his seven forecast to be returned 12/1 & under. That doesn’t make it easy to shortlist and three of the four are on my shortlist.
Looking at the pace map. There should be an even pace but it shouldn’t be overtly strong. Given the unseasonably good ground. It should then pay to look for runners that are likely to be ridden closer to the pace.
Farclas a 3-length 2nd of 21 to The Shunter in Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham Festival before finishing 5th in the Grand National at Aintree. The 7-year-old was in the process of running a big race and still going well behind the leaders when unseating his rider three out in the Kerry National at Listowel. The Gordon Elliott trained runner will like the ground (3-5 on good) and looks to have favourite’s chance although he can be a little frustrating.
Run Wild Fred a stablemate of the favourite. He’s another with big field handicap chase form having finished runner-up in the Thyestes Handicap Chase early in the year and ended last season with a 1 ¼ lengths 2nd of 28 in Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse, off 5lb lower. Returned from a 7-month absence to finish runner-up to Cape Gentleman over an inadequate 2m 4f in a Grade 3 at Cork three weeks ago. Will be sharper with that run under his belt and has obvious claims.
Definite Plan won’t lack for fitness and as he showed when winning at Cheltenham last month he goes very well on good ground. The first time cheekpieces had the desired effect and sharpened up his jumping. He stay’s further 3m so his stamina will be handy if there’s a decent pace.
Last season’s Scottish Grand National Third Mister Fogpatches finished 3rd of 12 in the Cork National last time. A sound surface suits the 7-year-old but he needs to jump better than he did last time and probably would prefer further than 3m.
Lord Royal trained by Willie Mullins has only had four starts over fences. His best run over fences last season came when ¾-length second of 9 to Mr Hendricks in a beginners’ chase over C&D in January. Not knocked about when 26 ¼ lengths 7th of 12 to Galvin in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time. Looked a bit weak last season but has the size to make a chaser and likely on a good mark. Good ground is an unknown but the trainer thinks he will do better on a sounder surface.
Top Moon can go well. The 6-year-old has won on good ground and was a solid 5 ¾ length 3rd of 15 to Ontheropes in Munster National at Limerick last time. There’s a race like this in him when all the cards fall right.
Discordantly won handicap chase at Galway on his seasonal reappearance last October and then put in a personal best over fence’s when a 22-length 4th of 22 in this race 12 months ago. Was still in contention, for the places at least, when making a bad mistake two out. Goes well fresh, should be ok on the ground and could get into the money again.
The inform Henry De Bromhead saddles Eleazar Des Neiges. The 7-year-old ran better than his pulled effort, last time, in the Cork Grand National suggests. He was still in contention when making a race ending mistake three out. The 7-year-old remains of potential back over shorter than at Cork but his best form so far has come with plenty of juice in the ground.
Verdict: It’s not the strongest of renewals. Both Discordantly and Eleazar Des Neiges could get into the money. There’s a good chance that Lord Royal is on a good mark for his handicap debut but the ground is an unknown. Top Moon has run well in these types of races and another good run wouldn’t surprise. Gordon Elliott’s record in the race means his runners are always worth having on the shortlist and both Farclas and Run Wild Fred with a slight preference for the former on good ground.
1pt win – Farclas – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts win – Discordantly – 12/1 @ Coral & Labrokes
12:50 – Clarens is sure to be popular in his bid for the hat trick after wins at Listowel and Wexford. Up 9lb for that latter success but he made mistakes at the last two hurdles so could be capable of further improvement to defy his new mark. However, he needs to cut out the mistakes in what looks a slightly better race.
Ricky Longford will appreciate the forecast good ground. The 7-year-old seemed to improve when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 11 on his last run over hurdles at Punchestown two starts back.
0.5pts win – Ricky Longford – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Exeter
3:00 – Legendary Rhythm shaped with plenty of promise when a 4 ¾ length of 15 of 15 at Chepstow last month. That was the mare’s first run for 7-months and she entitled to be fitter today. Takes on the geldings here but should give her backers a decent run for their money.
1pt win – Legendary Rhythm – 10/1 @ Coral & Ldbrokes
3:30 – Flutiste shaped with more encouragement on his second start from a 10-month absence when a 3-length 3rd of 17 at Chepstow 26-days ago and did run well here last December for a previous trainer. Looked in need of a stiffer stamina test at Chepstow so today’s 2f longer trip should be a positive and although he remains a maiden after 11 starts, he should be able to win a handicap hurdle off his present mark.
Freddy Fanatapan was 8-lengths and two places behind Flutiste at Chepstow last time. That was his first start for seven months so he’s likely to be sharper with that run under his belt. He won this corresponding race 12 months ago, off 1lb higher. Granted it was soft ground when he won this race last year but he’s also won on good ground so underfoot conditions shouldn’t preclude him going close again.
0.5pts win – Flutiste – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
0.5pts win – Freddy Fanatapan – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Not sure if there will be any selections until Friday but keep an eye on your inboxes for any updates.
Cheers
John