Hi all,
Its wall to wall racing on ITV this Saturday, The ITV cameras will cover ten races during the afternoon, four from Wincanton and three each from Aintree and Doncaster and on Saturday evening eyes will once again be on Del Mar with ITV broadcasting seven races live from the Breeders Cup on Saturday evening.
The serious business of the winter jumps season is now with us. The feature races of a seven race Wincanton card are the Grade 2 Unibet Elite Hurdle (3.35) and Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (3:00). Aintree’s Grand National fences are back in use in the 2m5f Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.15).
Doncaster finally brings an end to the 2021 British turf season. The highlight of a seven-race card, that gets underway at 11:50, is the Virgin Bet November Handicap (2:40).
As I said yesterday in the Breeders’ Cup email, I’m away this weekend and I have just concentrated on some of the races being shown live on ITV. Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the piece.
Aintree
2:15 – (Grand National) Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
You can tell we’re firmly in the winter jumps campaign now, as the National fences are in action for the first time since the big race in April. The Grand Sefton is normally run at the December meeting but it’s moved to the November meeting which is a good thing. I have four on my race shortlist.
Time To Get Up, is a fascinating contender. He really improved last season winning at Wincanton in February before winning the 4m 2f Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. The form of that race was boosted when the runner-up went onto win the Scottish Grand National. He’s only had seven career starts, four of them over fences, so is capable of more improvement this season. The 8-year-old is being aimed at the Grand National so gets a sight of the big fences. It’s not totally beyond the realms of possibility that he could even make up in to Gold Cup course. Not sure the drop back to 2m 5f will suit but if he’s to have any chance of going for a Gold Cup he would be going close here.
Experience of the National fences is usually a positive so Sir Jack Yeats must be on the shortlist. The 10-year-old was a 5 lengths 2nd of 18 in this race last year and ended the season with a 26 lengths 5th of 26 in the Topham Chase here in April. Same mark as 12 months ago and looks set to go well on his seasonal return
Jamie Snowden trained Hogan Heights to win this in 2019. He runs again, as does stablemate Thomas Macdonagh who looks the more interesting of the pair here. This sort of trip and soft ground look ideal conditions for the 8-year-old who looks on a workable mark off 130, if he takes to the National fences.
Spyglass Hill hasn’t really built on the promise of his Gowran Park beginners’ chase success in February 2020. A reasonable effort form the front when 5th of 15 to Ontheropes in the 3m Munster National Handicap Chase at Limerick last time, would have finished closer but for making a tired mistake two out. His jumping can leave a little bit to be desired and it will be tested over these stiff fences but the drop back in trip looks a plus and he’s on a decent enough handicap mark.
Wincanton
The going is being described as good at Wincanton for Badger Beer Day and it’s set to be mainly dry up until race day.
2:25 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f
Kissesforkatie, a previous C&D winner, might well have won but for being squeezed for room two out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 13 here last November on what turned out to be her final start of last season. Only 2lb higher and a 3lb conditional has been booked to negate the weight rise. Has gone well fresh in the past and is effective on a sound surface. Given her course record she must be high on the shortlist.
Emmpressive Lady took well to hurdling last season winning a mares novice at Exeter and mares handicap at Sandown before putting a career best effort stepped up to 3m for the first time when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 8 to the smart recent Wetherby winner Mollys Ollys Wishes. The mare wasn’t seen to best effect dropped back to 2m 3f when only 7th of 13 at Haydock in April but is better than that form. Could be capable of better this season but may need to return to 3m.
Wynn House won two novice hurdles at Bangor and Ludlow last autumn. Not sure how well handicapped she is but in Alan King’s Racing Post Stable Tour; the trainer thinks she’s better than a 122 rated horse. Her form figures first time up are 121 and she’s 3-5 on good ground so has plenty in her favour.
Rose Of Arcadia a bumper winner on her racecourse debut the maregot off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a C&D novice hurdle in February. Ran below expectations (16/5 fav) when a 10-length 5th of 12 in the Mares’ Final at Newbury (good to soft) on her handicap debut last time. May need further than this on good ground, both wins under rules came on heavy ground.. However, she remains a good prospect, especially when going over fences which is the plan.
3:00 – 60th Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m 1f
Looking at the race trends of the 177 horses who have competed in the race since 2008:
Horses returned 18/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 53 bets 4 placed;
Horses returned 9/1 & bigger on their last start are 1 winner from 71 bets 13 placed
Horses with an OR between 137 to 144 are 9 winners from 62 bets 16 placed (those 145+ are 0 winners from 25 bets 5 placed).
Interestingly horses returned 16/1 & under with 4-7 seasonal runs are 3 winners from 14 bets + 11.5 11 placed. If you had backed all such qualifiers each way you would have made a £37.38. So, watch for any ‘hard fit’ runners.
Last season’s 1st, 2nd and 5th reoppose. El Presente got the better of Potterman by a short head 12 months ago and just ½ length separated the pair when they were 2nd & 4th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at the end of last season. Both will like the sound surface and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again although both had the benefit of race fitness coming into last year’s race. Potterman is being aimed at the Ladbroke Trophy so may be better for the run and whilst El Presente has won fresh in the past the yards runners have tended to need the outing.
Some Chaos has a bit find on last year’s running with El Presente & Potterman but advertised his well-being for this with a good win in a Capveteran’s chase at Chepstow last month. He’s up 7lb in better race but the 10-year-old is a previous C&D winner and all six of his career wins have come on good ground
Cap Du Nord and Hurricane Harvey have both been popular in the ante post betting. Cap Du Nord comfortably landed a handicap chase at Newbury last November and continued to progress over fences in valuable handicap chases. Ended last season with a respectable 5 length 5th of 16 in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April. Ran well for a long way and was still in contention coming to two out, possibly didn’t see quite see out a stiff 3m 5f that day. Ran like the run was badly needed at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance last month. Capable of winning a handicap chase off his present mark
Of the front two in the betting Hurricane Harvey just appeals a bit more. The 7-year-old won two of his five starts of fences last season. A second season chaser, he returned from a six-month absence and wind surgery to finish an encouraging 4th of 9 over an inadequate 2m 3 ½ f at Chepstow last month. Won over 3m last season and remains with potential this season for the step up to 3m 1f.
Both Irish Prophecy & Storm Home come into the race after four starts this season (see above trends).
Storm Home won two handicap chases at Uttoxeter over the summer including the valuable Bet365 Summer Cup in June. He jumped well that day and showed he handles quick ground well. Up 12lb the 9-year-old returned from over two months off the track with a disappointing effort at Exeter last month. He fell at the last that day but was already well beaten when coming down.
Irish Prophecy hasn’t always been the most consistent of horses but was on a going day when winning here over 1 ½ f further 13-days ago. Put in a personal best that day, jumping and travelling as well as he’s ever done. The 8-year-old is up 7lb for his last success but won with plenty in hand. Now twice a C&D winner if he reproduces his last time out performance won’t be far away at the finish.
Doncaster
The ground at Doncaster was described as soft on Thursday for the final meeting of the British flat season.
1:25 – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Tomfre won twice over C&D last autumn, including this race off 1lb lower. The 4-year-old hasn’t eon this season but has put in several good performances including when a 2-length 2nd of 10 at Leicester last time. The softer the ground the better his chance.
Fresh a very useful sprint handicapper, runner-up in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. He seemed to stay 7f when 3rd of 16 at Ascot two starts back. Put in anther good effort when a 3-length 3rd of 10 here back over 6f last time and would have finished a bit closer but had to wait for run two out.
Boardman bounced back to form when a 2¼ lengths 5th of 21 in the 6f Coral Sprint Trophy at York last time. Was doing his best work at the finish that day and he should be suited to the return to 7f, ran up a hat trick of wins over the distance in May. Just 1lb higher than for the last of those wins at Chester.
Orbaan has only one success to his name since joining the David O’Meara yard but has put in plenty of good efforts since that win at York last summer. The handicapper has started to cut him some slack, now 6lb below his last winning mark, and he posted a good effort when a 1¼ length 2nd of 13 over C&D 14-days ago. Might be better over a mile but provided he gets a strong pace to chase, shouldn’t be far away.
2:05 – Virgin Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Plenty of old favourite’s here none more so than last year’s winner Dakota Gold. The 7-year-old will love the soft ground but hasn’t been at his best this season, albeit he didn’t run to badly when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 14 back in handicap company here last time.
Ainsdale is still waiting for his first win of the season but he’s got plenty of form that would give him a chance here. Finished a 1 ¾ length 4th of 12 in a Group 3 at Ascot two starts back. Was ¾ length and two places behind Kings Lynn that day but does get 3lb form that one and is double the price. Ran well enough when a 5-length 10th of 20 in the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot last time. Goes very well in the mud and is interesting in the first-time visor.
Jouska gained her second career success when winning a soft ground Listed fillies race at Newmarket last October. Not really at the level of form this season but has been running over 7f+ this season. A combination of a drop back to 6f and soft ground could well see the filly take a step forward like it did last season.
The unknown quantity of the field is the lightly raced Tarhib. The William Haggas trained filly has only had the three starts. She’s returned from a year off the track when winning a Lingfield maiden last month before easily seeing off four rivals at Yarmouth (good to soft) 18-days ago. Likely capable of better and interesting that connections pitch her in her given her handicap mark of 83 would be very exploitable.
2:40 – Virgin Bet November Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
It’s fair to say the November Handicap isn’t the betting race it once was. In the not-so-distant past it was lively ante post betting race with bookies usually having the race priced up for a few weeks. Sadly, not these days. Indeed, on Monday I could hardly find a bookmaker who had priced up this year’s race.
Looking at the last 13 renewals of the race 264 horses have competed in the November Handicap. It’s not been a good race for favourite backers. The clear or joint favourite is 1 winner from 13 bets 3 placed since 2008. That said it’s not been a race for a shock winner either. Those horses returned 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 114 bets 14 placed.
Since 2008 a low draw has been a big negative with those runners drawn in stalls 1-9 producing 0 winners from 90 bets 11 placed. The higher the draw the better your selection’s chance. Those runners drawn in the second half of the draw have produced nine of the last 12 winners of the race.
The November Handicap is a promising enough race for those of you who like your trends and for those of you looking for a way into the race and/or looking to create a shortlist of runners. You will probably do worse than focus on runners with the following traits:
Odds SP: 20/1 & under
Odds SP last race: 7/2 to 14/1
Best in last three runs: 1st or 2nd
Stall: 8 +
These qualifiers have produced – 12 winners from 65 bets with 21 placed. That’s 100% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners.
Looking at trainers to note – John Gosden has saddled the winner of the November Handicap six times since 1991 with three of them coming since 2008. He’s only got one entry in this year’s race the 3-year-old First Light.
Three-year-old’s have won the race 11 times since 1990 but that age group are 1-37 5 placed since 2008.
Most of the fancied horses have stood their ground for the final big flat race of the season.
First Light returned from an 83-day lay off with a respectable effort in an Ascot Listed race last time. He’s just 4lb higher than for his last success and must be high on the short list.
Another 3-year-old with claims is the consistent Farhan. He put in a personal best when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 15 to a potential Group horse in Siskany in the Old Rowley Cup last time.
Of the older horses. Ian Williams saddled the winner of this in 2017 and has a couple of entries in East Asia and Cardano. The former stormed back to form when winning at Nottingham (1m 6f) recently. Both his horses maybe better over further though.
Mr Curiosity is a progressive and lightly raced 4-year-old who ran out a comfortable winner at Redcar over 1m 6f last time.
The 5-year-old Sam Cooke flopped in this race last year but was coming back from 3-month absence that day. He been in the form of his career on his last two starts winning at York (1m 4f) two starts back and finishing 2nd of 10 at Newbury when dropped back to 1m 2f last time.
Top-weight Global Storm was in good form in the first part of season winning at Newmarket (1m 6f) in May before finishing a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 15 at Royal Ascot and then posting a career best when a ¾ length 2nd of 15 at Newmarket in July. Has struggled off a career high mark on two subsequent starts though. Adam Farragher takes off a handy 5lb but the 4-year-old probably needs the first time cheekpieces to have the desired effect if he’s to win.
Deja has been in poor form on her four starts in listed/group company this season. However, the mare is a well handicapped horse if returning to the form of her soft ground success in last season’s Old Newton Cup at Haydock, off 4lb higher. Gets the first-time blinkers here but stall 5 is off-putting.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
2:15 – 1pt win – Spyglass Hill – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Thomas Macdonagh – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wincanton
2:25 – 1pt win – Kissesforkatie – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – 1pt each way – Irish Prophecy – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)
Doncaster
1:25 – 1pt win – Orbaan – 9/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Boardman – 10/1 @ Bet365
2:40 – 1pt win – Farhan – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – First Light – 8/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John