Hi all,
I’m away on a short break this weekend but I have one for you today. Plus, you’ll find my Breeders Cup Preview and selections I will be sending out my Saturday selections from Aintree, Wincanton & Doncaster on Friday. There’s unlikely to be any Sunday selections this weekend.
Newbury
3:05 – Valleres 2-5 over hurdles last season is an interesting recruit to chasing. He should do well over fences and will likely prove popular on his chase debut. Trainer Alan King saddled the winner of this race in 2019.
Dublin Four got off the mark over fences when winning a handicap here (2m 6f) in March. The 7-year-old maintained his progress when a 12 lengths 4th of 13 in a novice handicap chase at Ayr the following month. Seemed to stay 3m well enough that day so the drop back to 2m 4f could find him out on his seasonal return.
Smarty Wild, a useful hurdler got off the mark on his fourth attempt over fences when winning a handicap chase at Kempton in January. Was let down by his jumping last season but if he can cut out the mistakes, he can win races this season. All five career wins have come going right-handed and he’s 0-4 going this way around. This is his trip though and if he’s ready to roll after a 229-day break shouldn’t be far away.
Lust For Glory won twice over fences last season but struggled in better races on her final three starts in the Spring. Both last season’s win came on testing ground but she’s won on a sounder surface earlier in her career including over hurdles here years’ ago. Trainer Nicky Henderson saddled last year’s winner and the mare can go well for him here.
1pt win – Lust For Glory – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Breeders’ Cup 2021 Preview
The Breeders Cup returns to California this year and connections will be hoping to take advantage of the likely quick ground.
Del Mar turf track is a sharp one, almost more like a greyhound track than a British racecourse, and there’s only 817 feet from the home turn to the finishing post. It’s a bit like Chester with shorter run in and suits handy well-balanced horses who have the tactical speed to get a good position. It favours those that race to the fore, as it’s easy to find trouble and the short run-in means a horse doesn’t have much time to recover.
Given the sharpness of the track not surprisingly a high draw is likely to prove a disadvantage. Those drawn wider either must break quickly to try to obtain a prominent sit or be dropped in and be ridden for luck.
Friday – Day 1
Day one see’s the juvenile’s take centre stage for ‘Future Stars Friday’. I have concentrated on the turf races but I do have couple of interest on the dirt. It’s a quiet start on the selections front with just two this evening.
11:10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – 1m
I really fancied Mise En Scene here but she’s been drawn in stall 13 of 14. Mise En Scene has just had three starts winning at Hayadock on her racecourse debut and the following up in a Group 3 at Goodwood. Finished a 3-length 4th of 9 in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket last time. A sound surface will suit and she’s can go close if she can overcome her wide draw.
11:50 – VG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) – 1m ½ f
On the dirt for this one and I’m taking a flyer here with the Japanese trained juvenile Jasper Great. There was a record number of Japanese entries for this year’s Breeders Cup and they will be disappointed if they don’t get a winner.
Jasper Great comes into the race with just one career run but that one run did see the colt make all to win by ten lengths on his racecourse debut last month. The son of Arrogate was bred in the United States and his half-brother Power Broker was a California Grade 1 winner. He has a good draw in stall 2 and showed he has the required stamina having already won over 1m 1f. The big question is does he have the experience to win a race like this after just one start. He’s a big price to find out.
12:30 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) – 1m
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t bring a horse over for the Breeders Cup unless he thinks they will handle the course and can win. He saddles Glounthaune here. The son of Kodiac won a Curragh maiden in April but was off the track until finishing 6th of 8 in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. He was too inexperienced to do himself justice that day but quickly bounced back to winning ways in a Group 3 at Leopardstown 7-days later. He should stay a mile and has the scope to improve further. Stall 8 could better but it could be worse.
Betting Advice:
11:50 – 0.5pts each way – Jasper Great – 16/1 @ Sky Bet (paying 4 places)
12:30 – 1pt win – Glounthaune – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Saturday – Day 2
This is where the meeting gets interesting with the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Breeders’ Cup Turf being the two races that interest me most. I have six selections for you on the Saturday card.
7:40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f
Kevin Ryan saddled Glass Slippers to win this 12 months ago and the mare is entered up again. Ryan also saddles Nunthorpe runner-up and Haydock Betfair Sprint Cup winner Emaraaty Ana. The ground was firm at Haydock so the 5-year-old should relish the fast ground. He might be better over a bit further but can be expected to run well. Both the Ryan horses have good low draws but on fast ground, I’m just siding with Emaraaty Ana.
8:19 – Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) – 1m
The Japanese have two of the eight declared runners in Jasper Prince and Pingxiang. Over the mile trip I prefer the claims the latter. Pingxiang, an American bred son of Speightstown, has won his last two starts in Japan over 7f. Like Jasper Prince this will be the 4-year-old’s first start over a mile but he’s been strong at the end of his races over 7f there’s a good chance he will stay. It will be tough to beat the home team but he’s a sporting bet at big odds.
8:59 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 3f
Love hasn’t been in the same this season as she was in 2020. However, she will relish the quick ground she’s likely to encounter here and should go well.
Audarya won this last year on firm ground at Keeneland but she has 1 ½ f further to travel this year. Her form ties in with Love on their Royal Ascot running and she should make a bold bid for back-to-back wins in the race but stall 12 could be better.
Japanese raider Loves Only You is a Group 1 winner in her native Japan but she also proved she’s good traveller when winning the Group 1 QEII Cup in Hong Kong in April and when a ½ length 3rd of 9 behind Mishriff in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan. A reproduction of her Meydan performance puts her firmly in the mix here.
10:20 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile – 1m
The Europeans will be disappointed if they can’t win this race. Space Blues & Master Of The Seas, trained by Charlie Appleby and Mother Earth trained by Aidan O’Brien and Pearls Galore from the Paddy Twomey yard give the British & Irish a strong hand in the race.
Space Blues gained his second Group 1 success when coming from behind to win the Prix Floret at Longchamp last month. He was strong at the finish over 7f that day which suggest he can effective over mile in this company. This will be the 5-year-old’s third start beyond 7f. He won a Nottingham maiden as a juvenile and was beaten a head at the same venue in April 2019.
Stablemate Master Of the Seas has been lightly raced this year but that campaign includes a win in the Group 3 Bet365 Craven Stakes and missing out on the Group 1 2,000 Guineas by only a short head. Off for five months he shaped like the run was needed when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 7 in a Group 2 at Newmarket in September. The colt didn’t build on that promise when a 6 ¼ lengths 7th of 10 to Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. The ground was good to soft at ascot and his best form has come on quick ground. He gives Godolphin a strong hand in the race and this race and track could really suit this strong traveller.
Mother Earth was second in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The filly was a useful juvenile but has done even better this year winning the 1,000 Guineas on her seasonal reappearance and the Group 1 Prix Rothschild in August. She’s only finished out of the first three once this season and that came last time when she was a 3 ¼ lengths 5th of 10 to Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last time.
Pearls Galore has improved all season winning a pair of Group 3 at Fairyhouse & Tipperary over the summer before beaten a neck in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown and a 2-length runner-up to Space Blues in the Floret. Has a bit to find with Space Blues on their running at Longchamp but has a similar chance to Mother Earth. Stays a mile and has won on good ground. Each way claims but stall 12 won’t be easy to defy.
Verdict: Pearls Galore will like the ground and if she had a lower draw she would be the pick but given her wide draw I’m just going with Master Of The Seas.
11:00 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (Dirt) – 1m 1f
Royal Flag came with a strong run to win a Grade 2 at Belmont over the distance last month. A consistent mare who’s never been out of the first three on her 12 career starts. Needs a career best to win this but given the ease of her last win she maybe be capable of producing it.
11:40 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 4f
Tarnawa last years’ winner has stall 13 to defy. The mare has been in even better form this year, Has finished runner-up on her last two starts, beaten less than a length in the Irish Champions Stakes and in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Despite her wide berth she’s the one to beat.
Channel Maker almost stole this race from the front 12 months ago but was caught by Tarnawa in the final few yards and finished a length 3rd. Not been at that level of form so far this season but can never be ruled out when getting an uncontested lead.
Teona looks to finally fulfilling her potential. The filly well beaten on soft ground in the Oaks she comes into this having won listed race at Windsor (good to firm) before posting a career best when beating six rivals in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (good) at Longchamp last time. Missed the Arc due to the soft ground and will be more at home back on the quick ground. Likely hasn’t reached her ceiling just yet and another big run can be expected, albeit stall 12 could have been better.
German raider Sisfahan could be the value alternative to Tarnawa. The colt won the German Derby in the spring before finishing a length runner-up behind subsequent Arc winner Torquator Tasso in a Group 1 at Baden-Baden in September. Not seen to best effect in a tactical race when a 3-length 3rd of 8 to Alpinista in Group 1 at Cologne last time. A strongly run 1m 4f will suit. Granted this will be the fastest ground he’s encountered but provided he handles it has excellent each way claims.
Verdict: Tarnawa deserves to be favourite and is the one to beat. However, stall 13 won’t be easy to overcome. Sisfahan is one I’m really looking forward to and is one of my strong fancies of the weekend. If he’s as effective on quick ground I can see him going very well.
Betting Advice:
7:40 – 1pt win – Emaraaty Ana – 6/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
8:19 – 0.5pts each way – Pingxiang – 25/1 @ William Hill (paying 3 places)
8:59 – 1pt win – Loves Only You – 9/2 @ Bet365
10:20 – 1pt win – Master Of The Seas – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
11:00 – 1pt win – Royal Flag – 8/1 @ William Hill
11:40 – 1pt each way – Sisfahan – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places)
Hopefully there’s a winner among my Breeders’ Cup selections. Watch your inboxes for Saturday’s selection from this side of the Atlantic.
Cheers
John