Hi all,
The feature races of an interesting Ascot card are: The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2:40) and the Group 3 Bengough Stakes (3:15). Add in the likely big field Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:50) and you have the makings of an interesting six race card.
The standout race quality wise this Saturday in Britain is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (2.55) at Newmarket. Meanwhile Redcar hosts its most valuable race of the year: The Listed William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (3:35) with £157,500 in guaranteed prize money and £89,318 on offer to the winner.
It’s the first day of Arc Weekend at Longchamp which culminates in a feast of Group 1 action on the Sunday with the highlight being Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s most important flat race. There are two Group 1 races on the Longchamp card but I’m giving the meeting a miss today.
The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Ascot, Newmarket & Redcar as part of an eight-race programme.
It could be a tricky day punting wise as plenty of rain is being forecast for the southern part of England. So, that is something to keep in mind. The going at Ascot is good, good to soft in places and at Newmarket good to soft, good in places at the time of writing on Friday afternoon.
I’m concentrating today’s preview at Ascot and Newmarket. Betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ascot
2:05 – Oakman Group Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 5f
Hurricane Ivor followed up his Portland Handicap success with a win in a Group 3 at Newbury two weeks ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but he could be a Group 1 sprinter nest season.
Tis Marvellous who won the Beverley Bullet two starts back was a length behind Hurricane Ivor at Newbury. He get’s 2lb from that one here and is three-time C&D winner but the winner is open to more improvement and can confirm that Newbury form.
Significantly was a further ½ length back in 4th at Newbury. He wasn’t the best away that day and does get 2lb from Tis Marvellous and 4lb from Hurricane Ivor here. Twice a winner of C&D earlier in the season his chance would be enhanced with more cut in the ground.
Minzaal won the Gimcrack Stakes last season and finished 3rd of 8 in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. First start for just over a year and may be better on good or quicker ground.
Dakota Gold hasn’t been at his best so far this season but this will likely be the first time he gets favoured easy surface. He’s won this race for the last two years and should make a bold bid for the hat trick.
2:40 – ABF/BGC Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
Hukum was said to have made a respiratory noise when a neck 2nd to Hamish in the September Stakes at Kempton last time. A stronger run race will suit the 4-year-old and he won over C&D at Royal Ascot last season.
Alounak 3rd in the Ebor Handicap showed he remains in form when finishing runner-up in a Chester Listed race last time. Ease in the ground suits the 5-year-old but he may have trouble confirming that Chester form with the third Wells Farhh Go and 4th Alignak.
Wells Farhh Go was having his first start since May and was just ½ length behind Alounak. Alignak was a further 2 ½ lengths back but ran like the run was needed after 12 months off the track.
Quickthorn runner-up in the Ebor Handicap, had earlier in the season won the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap over 1m 4f on soft ground at the Royal meeting. The 4-year-old looked to have no chance when blowing the start at Salisbury last time but still managed to run out a 2-length winner of a conditions race. Might be better over further in this company but must have a good chance if the rain arrives.
Title was well backed when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster (good to soft) three weeks ago. That was a much-improved performance from the 3-year-old on his first start after a gelding operation. Looks worth another attempt in Group company (was a 4 length third behind Alenquer in the Group 2 King Edward Stakes over C&D in June) and isn’t out of this on the figures.
3:15 – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Glen Shiel hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts in Group 1 company but the ground was to firm form him at Haydock last time. His best form on turf has come on soft ground. Won last season’s Champions Sprint over C&D (soft) and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (soft) at Royal Ascot. Favourite’s chance here if the ground eases.
Great Ambassador beat all but the well handicapped Bielsa in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. He was clear of those who raced far side at Ayr and confirmed himself a progressive sprinter who could reach Group 1 level as 5-year-old. Not sure he would want the ground too soft though.
Bielsa could still make his mark in pattern company but will do well to confirm his Ayr Gold Cup form with the runner-up. That said the easier ground will be more to his liking than Great Ambassador.
Tabdeed finished 1 ½ lengths behind Great Ambassador in a York Listed race last time. He’s a consistent enough sprinter but hard to see why he should finish ahead of Great Ambassador or a back to form Glen Shiel here.
Of more interest would be Diligent Harry from the inform Clive Cox stable. The 3-year-old had looked a useful sprinter on the all-weather earlier in the year and finished a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 13 behind Chil Chil in a Group 3 at Newcastle in June. Battled on all the way to line when a neck 2nd on his turf debut in a Group 3 at Newbury (good to firm), a nose ahead of Tabdeed, 77-days ago. More rain would be questionable, as he was withdrawn from the Commonwealth Cup due to soft ground.
3:50 – Equine Productions “The Fall” Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
I would really fancy the chances of favourite Al Rufaa if he gets a strong pace to chase. A strongly run 7f looks ideal for the 4-year-old who shaped well when a ¾ length 2nd of 9 at Sandown 22-days ago. Given the winner got an uncontested lead that day he did well to finish as close given the exaggerated waiting tactics used.
River Nymph won the Victoria Cup on soft ground over C&D in May and shaped nicely off 4 months, absence when 3¾ lengths 4th of 15 in a Listed race at Newbury 15-days ago. Now 4lb higher than his last win but can go close if the ground eases further.
Fresh won a 6f handicap here in May on his seasonal reappearance and finished a neck 2nd in the Wokingham Handicap a month later. First run at 7f for the 4-year-old but he goes well on good to soft ground and if he stays, he should be there or thereabouts on a track that suits.
Escobar is knocking on the door he’s not the easiest to win with but was a good 2nd of 7 in a Listed race at Sandown last time. Soft ground suits, as does Ascot’s straight track he won over a mile here and finished ¾ length 3rd of 27 behind River Nymph in the Victoria Cup in May.
Ralph Beckett saddles a couple live contenders in Tomfre and Star Of Orion. Tomfre’s optimum conditions are soft/ heavy ground and 7f. Likely needed the run after a 3 month lay off when 8th of 15 at Newbury in a Listed race at Newbury 15-days ago (1 ¾ length behind River Nymph). Star Of Orion was a short head 2nd of 19 in the valuable International Handicap over C&D two starts back. Struggled at York back over a mile last time but if you forgive that run, he’s got a chance.
Ascension won’t be inconvenienced by soft ground or the drop back to 7f. A winner at Newbury (1m) on soft ground in May but was unsuited by quick ground here in the Hunt Cup and didn’t stay 1m 2f in the John Smith Cup at York on his last start in July.
Aldaary went into my tracker when a 5 ½ length 5th of 28 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over 7f at Royal Ascot (good to firm) and again when a 2 ¼ 5th of 19 in the International Handicap over C&D the following month. A winner over C&D in May (good to soft) he hasn’t had his preferred easy ground since the spring which he should get today. My suspicion is he has a race like this in him off his present mark.
Newmarket
1:45 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Swoon has won her last two at Wolverhampton and Carlisle 46-days ago. Handicap debut off what looks a good mark of 86 for a filly who is open to plenty more improvement. It was quick ground at Carlisle but her dam won on soft ground so the easier ground shouldn’t inconvenience her.
Alpine Minstrel ran well after a 4-month layoff when 3rd of 6 at Sandown last time. She goes well on soft ground and is on a fair mark based on her best form of last season.
Achelois just failed in her hat trick bid when a 1 length 3rd of 12 at York last month. The easier surface will suit her better than at York.
State Occasion put in a career best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 10 at Ascot last month. Up 1lb but remains on a competitive mark but has yet to race on ground worse than good to firm.
Ensemble finished ¾ length ahead of State Occasion at Lingfield and showed that she’s started in handicap company off a decent mark.
Talbeyah did best of the hold up horses when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 12 in a Listed race at Yarmouth 17-days ago.
Evident Beauty made an encouraging handicap debut when a ¾ length 2nd of 5 at Haydock (good to firm) last month. That was her first run over 1m 2f and she’s another open to more progress over 1m 2f. Yet to race on ground worse than good to firm.
Via Sistina won a soft ground Goodwood novice on her second career start but was predictably outclassed when stepped up to Group 2 company at Longchamp in July. Not totally dismissed on her handicap debut.
2:55 – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
No Alcohol Free who wasn’t declared but it still looks a decent renewal of the race. Aidan O’Brien brings over 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth who was an unlucky third in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.
The winner of the Matron Stakes No Speak Alexander is set to renew rivalry with the O’Brien filly here. Although Mother Earth was unlucky last time the winner is twice her odds here.
Champers Elysees finished a 2 ½ length 4th of 12 in last year’s renewal. Arguably a little unlucky not to finish closer as she failed to get a run 2f out. Hasn’t been at her very best this year but didn’t get a clear run a furlong out when a 3 ¼ length 6th in the Matron Stakes last month. Not as easy against some useful 3-year-old’s but still can’t be ruled and she is ground versatile.
Group 1 Falmouth Stakes winner Snow Lantern wasn’t quite at her best when 4th to Baaeed in the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin earlier this month but should do better back against her own sex.
The one I like most is Saffron Beach. The 3-year-old was beaten a length by Mother Earth in the 1,000 Guineas. She didn’t build on that performance on two subsequent starts, failing to stay in the Oaks before running well below par in the Falmouth Stakes. However, she got firmly back on track when winning the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time. Her form figures on the Rowley Mile are 1122. Granted she has a bit find on official ratings with the leading protagonists, However, the gap isn’t insurmountable on track that really suits her.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
2:05 – 1pt win – Dakota Gold – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:50 – 1pt win – Fresh – 8/1 @ Bet365, 1pt win – Al Rufaa – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Aldaary – 7/1 @ Bet365
Newmarket
1:45 – 1pt win – Swoon – 7/1 @ Bet365
2:55 – 1pt win – Saffron Beach – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt each way Champers Elysees – 20/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds).
Cheers
John