Hi all,
It was nice to find you a well backed winner in Visualisation at Listowel yesterday. Sadly, the other selection Fil The Power ran an absolute ‘stinker’ and was never at the races.
It’s Kerry National Day and the biggest race of the Listowel Harvest Festival. I have a couple of selections running in the Kerry National.
Listowel
4:20 – Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
JP McManus silks will be worn by no less than seven runners. Of his seven the one I like most is the Gordon Elliott Aramax. The 5-year-old won the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. He’s only 1-7 since going chasing but he put in a career best over the larger obstacles when a 4 ¼ lengths 3rd of 19 in the Galway Blazers Handicap Chase 54-days ago. He seemed to stay the extended 2m 6f at Galway. By no means certain to get the 3m but I fancy he will.
Born By The Sea made it 2-9 over fenceswhen winning the Galway Blazers two starts back. He was strong at the finish that day and looked an ideal type for this. Up 8lb and not sure to confirm form with Aramax. No show over hurdles since but he’s a much better horse over fences and has each way claims.
Gordon Elliott also saddles Conflated who is 2-6 over fences. He’s got some classy form in Graded races. First start in a handicap chase for the 7-year-old and although he’s won over an extended 2m 4 ½ f over fences is another not guaranteed to stay 3m. Looks an ideal type for the race and had a spin on the flat 21-days ago so should be spot on fitness wise.
There seems to be a lot of confidence behind first reserve Fairyhill Run. The mare has won her last three over fences. Up 14lb for her last win at Kilbeggan she remains a competitive mark and her trainer is on the record as saying she’s Graded level chaser and will win this if she gets in. High praise indeed and if she sneaks in, must be high on the shortlist.
Verdict: A race where you could have two or three against the field. If Fairyhill Run gets in she’s one for the betting shortlist. Of the Elliot pair Conflated and Aramax the latter offer slightly better value and Born By The Sea can get into the money.
1pt win – Fairyhill Run – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Aramax – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Born By The Sea – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John