Hi all,
The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (3.40) is the big betting race of the day. There’s a good supporting card of races including Virgin Bet Silver Cup (2:30). The Group 3 Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes (3:05) and the Listed Virgin Bet Doonside Cup (1:55).
ITV are covering five races from Ayr and four from Newbury. There are three Group races at Newbury; the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (2.50), the Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (2.15) and Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (4.00) both Group 3 contests.
There’s also an afternoon fixture at Newmarket, where the feature race is the Close Brothers Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (3:15). Catterick, Gowran Park and Wolverhampton complete Saturday’s action.
There was rain towards the end of Friday’s Ayr card and a bit more was expected on Friday evening whether it will be enough to ease the ground much is another matter. Plenty more rain expected tomorrow but it’s not forecast to arrive until after racing. It looks like it will be mainly dry at Newbury though.
Like last weekend I’m have concentrated the races on the races being covered by ITV. Today’s betting advice is at the bottom of the main piece.
Ayr
2:30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Not sure how the draw will work out. In yesterday’s Bronze Cup it seemed like lower numbers were favoured and looking at the race pace map most of the early speed looks to be low.
Blackrod is drawn in stall 10. The 3-year-old has improved on each of his four starts this year and comes into the race having won his last two out Newmarket over 6f and when dropped down to 5f at York last month. The minimum trip was on the short side for him so he did well to get up and win. Can race off the same mark here and looks to have a great chance on a sound surface of landing the hat trick.
Royal Scimitar looked a handicap winner in waiting when finishing a ½ length 4th of 17 behind Blackrod at Newmarket. He hasn’t won any of his three subsequent starts but has placed twice and if the first blinkers have the desired effect, he wouldn’t be far away out of stall 9.
Magical Spirit won this last year off 6lb lower. He looks to have been trained for the race again and bounced back to form just in time for an autumn campaign when a head 3rd of 10 at the Shergar Cup last month. That run was over 5f and they way he finished off his race he would have won in another couple of strides. He’s been nudged up 2lb for his Ascot performance but any ease in the ground will suit and stall 4 will hopefully be ideal.
Of those drawn towards the middle I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Blackrod’s stablemate Woven. The 5-year-old has been knocking on the door in 6f handicaps this season. Awkward at the start he did well to finish a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 13 behind Gold Cup fancy Just Frank at Thirsk last time. A strongly run 6f will suit and he shouldn’t be far away.
3:05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
The Ger Lyons trained Head Mistress is the ante post favourite.The filly bids for a hat trick after wins at Downpatrick and latterly a Listed race at the Curragh. Steps up to 6f for the first time but she should by the new distance and looks the one to beat.
The biggest threat to the favourite could be the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to Group 1 winning 6f sprinter Hello Youmzain she created as seriously good impression when winning at Carlisle on her racecourse debut last month. Capable of much better and interesting that connections opt to bring her here for her second career start.
3:40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Unlike the Silver Cup most of the pace seems to be among the high numbers. However, the favourite Great Ambassador is drawn 1 and second favourite Commanche Falls is in stall 2.
Great Ambassador ticks plenty of boxes and could be capable of holding his own Group 1 next season. Provided the ground is good or quicker he’s a worthy market leader but the draw would be concern if the pace forecast is correct. Stablemate Popmaster is also a big contender the 3-year-old won at Ascot two weeks ago and although he’s a got a 5lb penalty to carry for that win he’s going the right way and should be in the mix out of stall 11. Interestingly the first-time blinkers are applied.
Commanche Falls had the favourite one length back in third in the Goodwood Stewards Cup and at the revised weights he’s got a good chance of finishing front of him again. He’s only 4lb higher than for winning at Goodwood and is another who could be pattern horse next season.
Bielsa was back in 6th in the Stewards Cup. His run can be slightly marked up as he ran alone down the centre of the track that day. You must go back to October 2019 for his last win but he’s run plenty of good races in defeat since and is on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right. Racing out of stall 25 any rain is a plus for his chance.
Just Frank put in a career best when making all to win at Thirsk last time. He looks well treated under a 5lb penalty and provided there is some juice in the ground will be there or thereabouts out of stall 18.
Ostilio (11) has been slowly adapting to sprinting since joining the Paul Midgely yard and seems to be slowly getting the hang of it. He caught the eye again when a fast-finishing 4th of 11 in the Listed Beverley Bullet over the minimum trip. The return to 6f will suit and there’s no doubting he’s a well handicapped horse.
Fivethousandtoone (5) was a smart juvenile he finished runner-up in the Mill Reef Stakes 12 months ago and was only 4 ½ length behind St Mark’s Basilica in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. The 3-year-old hasn’t been at his best so far this season. However, his 3-length 3rd of 4 behind Great Ambassador at York was a step back in the right direction.
4:15 – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Dance Fever wasn’t suited by the way the race was run when fourth behind stablemate Aratus at Goodwood last time. Back up to a mile for just the third time in his career but looks worth another try at it.
Cruyff Turn has already won four times this year and put in a career best when winning at the York Ebor Festival last month. He’s gone up just 3lb for that win which doesn’t look harsh but he did get the run of the race out in front at York and needs good or quicker ground.
Shelir finished runner-up twice over C&D, off around today’s mark, in the summer. He comes into the race in good form having finished a neck 2nd of 10 at Pontefract 10-days ago. He doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but shouldn’t be far away and wouldn’t be winning out of turn.
Whatever the fate of Just Frank in the big race. Trainer Les Eyre hold another chance here with Fame And Acclaim. Formerly with Joseph O’Brien the 4-year-old looks nicely enough treated on the best of his Irish form in the spring. Yet to win on his four starts for his new trainer but has pot in a couple of performances that suggest he can win a race like this. Must bounce back from a poor run in the race won Cruyff Turn at York but the quick ground didn’t suit him that day and he’s better on an easier surface.
Hong Kong Harry, trained by Richard Fahey, is lightly raced for a 4-year-old. A winner of his first two starts here this season, both over 7f. Was off the track for four months but ran with plenty of encouragement when 3rd of 11 over an extended 7f at Lingfield last month. He might have needed the run last time and wasn’t given a hard race when his jockey realized he couldn’t win. Shapes like the step up to a mile could really suit and is a big contender.
Newbury
3:25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Aramaic didn’t need to improve to win a Musselburgh maiden but improved plenty when making a winning handicap debut at York 13-days ago. The step up to 1m 2f suited the colt and although he’s been raised 7lb for that win, which doesn’t look to harsh, there should be plenty more to come from this progressive 3-year-old.
Pivoine finished runner-upto Aramaic at York last time he’s got 3 ½ lengths to find with the winner who’s open to more improvement. The 7-year-old does get 7lb from the winner but still it hard to see him finishing in front today.
King Of Clubs is another who put in a career best last time when putting his head down on the line to win at Sandown. The front two pulled clear of the rest that day which means the handicapper has put him up 7lb. That rise in the weight makes life tougher for him but there could be more to come.
Injazati bids for the hat trick after wins at Nottingham and on the tapeta at Newcastle last time. He’s up 6lb here and in a deeper race but he’s another going the right way and remains capable of better.
King Leonidas a winner of his first two starts over shorter hasn’t been seen in action since finishing 6th of 17 in last season’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. The 4-year-old has a 457-day absence to overcome but looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper off a mark of 102. Interesting that connections run the colt over 1m 2f for a belated return to action.
Mo’assess has won his last two both at Kempton. He actually beat Aramaic a neck at Kempton two starts back so has to be respected on that form. Looks capable of better and should stay today’s 1m 2f. Opening mark looks workable and yard had a Listed winner here yesterday.
4:00 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Gis A Sub and Fearby 2nd and 4th in last month’s Gimcrack Stakes are both strong contenders if running to their best.
The bookies make Dhabab the ante post favourite. The colt didn’t seem to stay 7f when an excellent 1 ½ length 3rd to Native Trail in the Superlative Stakes last time. A reproduction of that run would make him hard to beat on Saturday.
Maglev a son of Galileo Gold looked nicely treated for his nursery debut at York’s Ebor Festival. And, so it proved as he ran a tremendous race to finish a 1 ½ length 2nd of 16 to last week’s big sales race winner Harrow. He remains an unexposed colt who won’t have any problem with the drop back to 6f.
Interesting to see trainer John Ryan has once again booked William Buick for Manaccan. Buick was in the saddle for the colt’s success in a Newmarket novice last month. The son of Exceed And Excel produced a good turn of foot to go clear of his rivals that day. It’s a be a big step up in class here for him but he shapes like a useful prospect and further improvement seems likely.
Betting Advice:
Ayr
2:30 – 1pt win – Blackrod – 9/2 – Gen and 1pt win – Magical Spirit – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Woven – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
3:40 – 1pt win – Just Frank – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and Bielsa – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – 1pt each way – Fame And Acclaim – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Newbury
3:25 – 1pt win – King Leonidas – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Mo’assess – 13/2 @ Bet365
4:00 – 1pt win – Maglev – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Manaccan – 14/1 @ Bet365 or 12/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John