Hi all,
Sadly, yesterday’s each way selection Highwaygrey could only finish 5th just one place out of the money.
The quality increases on day two of Ayr’s Western Meeting with the Listed British EBF Stallions Rosebery Stakes (2.10) and Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies’ Stakes (2.45). There’s also the first of the Ayr Gold Cup consolation races the Virgin Bet Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap (3:20) and opportunity to see if there is any draw bias on the straight track.
At Newbury the highlights of a seven-race card are the normally informative 2-year-old race the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (2.55) at Newbury, which is followed by the Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (3.30). Newton Abbot’s fixture completes the afternoon racing in Britain and there are fixtures at Downpatrick and Dundalk in Ireland.
I will begin today’s preview looking at three big races at Newbury before moving onto four races at Ayr. Today’s selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newbury
2:55 – 41st Running Of The Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 1m
The expensively purchased King Of Conquest won his first start for Charlie Appleby at Sandown last month and looks capable of much better.
Westover was also sharp enough to win on his racecourse debut at Sandown last month. The son of Frankel showed a nice turn of foot to win that day and is another open to improvement.
Paradias finished 2 ½ lengths behind King Of Conquest in second on his racecourse debut and should progress further with racing.
Rawyaan is one of the more experienced of the six runners having had three starts. However, he’s improved with each run and can’t be discounted if as good with more ease in the ground for his two wins.
3:30 – Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
A surprisingly large field of 15 runners are set line up which is a much bigger field than the race has attracted in recent seasons.
Al Suhail was a disappointing 11/4 favourite in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes over C&D two starts but was back on track when easily seeing off two rivals at Haydock 15-days ago. He’s the joint top on official ratings but isn’t sure to be in the same form here and his three career wins have come in field sizes of seven or less.
Stablemate D’bai was also down the field in the Hungerford Stakes but was back to something like his best when 2nd of 6 in the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last Saturday. The forecast strong pace will suit a horse who likes to come off the pace.
Albasheer shaped with promise on his first start for 11 months when just touched off by Jumby at Salisbury last month. Given his long absence he probably hasn’t be the easiest to train. The 3-year-old only had the four starts and has the ability to win more races.
Saeed bin Suroor saddles the improving Silent Escape. The 4-year-old has only had the four career starts. Two from three this year she looked a useful prospect when winning a 7f handicap at Sandown last month. Up several notches in class here but the filly is progressive and capable of better.
Given the form of the Jessica Harrington yard you can’t rule out her runner Ace Aussie in the first-time tongue tie. The 3-year-old looked set for a good season when running Poetic Flare to 1 ½ length on his seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown although ran as well when 3rd of 8 in a Group 3 at back at the venue the following month. Ran poorly when last seen in action at the Curragh 61-days ago.
River Nymph’s form figures here are 21 and he won a C&D handicap last August. He made it 3-5 over 7f when beating 26 rivals in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May. Showed he was capable of being competitive in pattern company when a 5 lengths 4th of 9 to Kinross at Haydock 11-days ago. Back in bigger field will suit although he may prefer even easier ground, two of his best RPR’s have come on soft.
4:05 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Makram a winner over 1m 2f two starts back showed he stays 1m 4f when a neck 2nd of 4 at Newmarket last time and should be there or thereabouts. However, preference is for Surrey Gold, a winner here over 1m 3f in May. It was good to soft that day and this will be the first time on since his win that he get’s soft in the going description. He ran better than his 8th off 22 in the Melrose Handicap at York last time. He probably didn’t stay 1m 6f that day and will be better back down in trip.
Ayr
1:35 – EBF Nursery Handicap – 6f
The Richard Fahey pair of Straits Of Moyle & Final Account look the ones to concentrate on here. Straits Of Moyle put in a much-improved effort when winning a Carlisle nursery 9-days ago. He has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but looks open to more improvement. Final Account put in his best effort since his racecourse debut when finishing a neck 2nd of 6 at Hamilton earlier this month. Likely needs to another step forward to win but the first time cheekpieces are applied and they could bring out the necessary improvement required.
2:05 – British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Project Dante finished ¼ length 3rd of 15 in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. This will be his first start since running poorly July Stakes (6f) at Newmarket last time but he’s better than he was able to show that day and better can be expected back at the minimum trip.
The Ger Lyons trained Geocentric has improved with each of her three career starts. A Navan maiden winner she ran her smart stablemate Sacred Bridge to 3 ¾ lengths when 2nd of 12 in a Group 3 at the Curragh three weeks ago. A speedy sort the drop back to 5f will suit her and she would have been a convincing winner last time but for her stablemate.
Recent Hamilton winner Peggy Sioux is open to plenty improvement on just her second career start for the inform Kevin Ryan yard.
Mitbaahy has improved with each of his four starts and put in a excellent effort when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 9 in his first start in Listed company at York last month. The second has since gone on to win the Flying Childers so the form looks solid and he shouldn’t be far away.
2:45 – Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 5 ½ f
The speedy Tweet Tweet put in a career best effort when winning a Class 2 Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival last time. Now 3 wins from 4 starts this season, with an excuse for her sole defeat. Deserves her step up into Listed company. Will face pressure for the lead but has a good chance if she’s as effective over this extra 1/2 f.
Teresa Mendoza will be suited if there is a strong pace to chase. Sole win came on her racecourse debut last year but she’s put in plenty of good performances in Listed/Group company this season. Notably when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 16 behind recent Group 1 winner Romantic Proposal in 6f Listed race at the Curragh in June. Not disgraced when 4th of 7 in a Group 3 at the Curragh last month. Claims here if they go hard up front.
3:20 – Virgin Bet Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Bernardo O’Reilly a good 2nd of 7 at Ascot two starts back, shaped like remains inform when a 2 ½ length 4th of 12 at Doncaster 7-days ago. Hopefully the ground won’t be too quick for him but he’s suited by a big field scenario and needs a strong pace to come off which he should get here
The 3-year-old Twilight Madness twice a winner at Kempton earlier in the year, took another step forward when returning from a six-month absence to win at Newmarket in July. Ran almost as well when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 7 at Windsor 20-days ago. Probably did to much up front but likely remains open to more improvement provided he doesn’t do too much in the early stages of the race like he did at Windsor.
Mark’s Choice winner of the Great St Wilfrid consolation race at Ripon two starts back would likely have won back at the same venue if he’d got a clearer run when making his effort between the final two furlongs. Same mark so is handicapped to go well again if he transfer his Ripon form to Ayr.
Pockley ran a race full of promise, on his first start since switching to Linda Perrett, when a ½ length 2nd of 7 at Carlisle 22-days ago. The winner has gone in again since. He can race off the same mark here and the 3-year-old has claims, if he’s in the same form as last time.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
4:05 – 1pt win – Surrey Gold – 4/1 @ Bet365
Ayr
1:35 – 1pt each way – Final Account – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:10 – 1pt win – Geocentric – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:45 – 1pt win – Teresa Mendoza – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:20 – 1pt win – Twilight Madness – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Bernardo O’Reilly – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John