Hi all,
Even having tipped the 2,000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia, can’t take away from the fact that the Punchestown Festival has been a punting disaster.
Well at least it’s the flat all the way now and I can forget about the hedgehoppers for a while although no doubt I will be suckered in by next Saturday’s mixed meeting at Haydock.
Well the ladies take centre stage on Sunday with the Qipco 1,000 Guineas the feature race in Europe.
The field sizes at Newmarket are a shade disappointing although a field of 15 are set to go to post for the first fillies’ classic which looks an open a race as yesterday’s 2,000 Guineas.
Al today’s selections come from Newmarket and there’s also a recent eyecatcher running ate meeting although he’s odds on.
Newmarket
1:50 – A 1m 4f Class 2 handicap for which a field of ten have been declared to go to post.
Baghdad returned to action when 3rd at Newcastle 16-days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since winning the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot off 8lb lower. The handicapper has put him up 2lb for his Newcastle effort. It was a nice start to the season, and he has a good chance of winning this. Trainer Mark Johnston also saddles Hochfield and Fire Fighting but Baghdad looks the stables first choice and is surely set for a good season.
Shailene, was three places and 2 ¼ lengths behind Baghdad in the Newcastle race on his handicap debut and her first start since September. It an encouraging reappearance but she maybe needs further than 1m 4f to win in this company.
Corelli, trained by John Gosden, has won three of his five career starts. The 4-year-old has been gelded over the winter and remains open to improvement.
Deja, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam comes into the race looking for the four timer after wins at Wolverhampton, Chester & Pontefract back in October. That was just a Class 4 contest so he’s up in class here and up 9lb for his Pontefract win. Lightly raced and a potential improver this season but the ground will likely be faster than it was at Chester & Pontefract.
Melting Dew, represents Sir Michael Stoute whose made a great start to the season. The 5-year-old improved with each of his first four starts last season culminating in a ½ length second at Goodwood in August over 1m 6f. The gelding was well beaten at York on his final start last August back down to 1m 4f. I doubt it was the drop-in distance that led to his disappointing run there. Maybe he just didn’t like York. Many horses just don’t like the Knavesmire.
Spirit Ridge is another lightly raced 4-year-old. The son of Nathanial has just had the four starts making his racecourse debut only in June. A winner of a Catterick novice on his second start he ended last season by making all to win on his handicap debut at Leicester. He showed a good battling attitude to hold his rivals that day and looked the sort to do well in his second season. Interesting that his powerful owner has kept the gelding rather than selling him last autumn. Connections think he can progress over further than 1m 4f as the season progresses. Despite being 7lb higher than for his last win and may need further he still needs respecting for a trainer whose 3 winners from 7 runners in 1m 4f handicaps at the track since 2013 and won this corresponding race in 2015.
Verdict: Baghdad looks set for another good season and can win this. Potential improver Spirit Ridge looks the biggest danger to the Johnston horse but faces potential competition for the lead.
Selection: Baghdad – 5/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill
2:55 – A 6f Class 2 handicap for which just 11 are declared to go to post.
Gifted Master, trained by Hugo Palmer, won this race last year and bids for the double off the same mark and later won the Goodwood Stewards Cup off 2lb higher. He was never able to get to the front to dominate in a Group 3 at the Craven Meeting 18-days ago. The 6-year-old will be better back in handicap company and if he gets an uncontested lead, which looking at pace maps he could, then he will be hard to pass.
Gunmetal, was an improving handicap sprinter for David Barron last season. He’s 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed here and has also won twice on the July course. Well suited by good or quicker he could rival Gifted Master for the lead. Made all to win the Great St Wilfird Handicap at Ripon last August. Up 7lb for his last win so needs to improve again which is possible.
On the Warpath, won over 7f at Meydan two starts back and beat all bar stable mate Mubtasim over that distance. The 4-year-old remains progressive and looks interesting dropped back to 6f.
Victory Angel, was 4th in this race last year, beaten a length by Gifted Master. Now with Robert Cowell he can race off a 6lb lower mark. First run for his new trainer but he did win first time up over C&D in 2017. All three of his wins have come on good to firm so the 5-year-old ticks the boxes marked course, distance and going and must enter calculations.
Flavius Titus & Summerghand, were first and second in a C&D handicap 19-days ago. The former is up 4lb for his neck win and the latter is up 3lb.
The winner was having his first start for 193-days and only his third start over 6f and he remains unexposed over sprint distances. Given he made his run more towards the centre of the track his effort could be worth a bit more than the official margin of his victory suggests.
Summerghand, was well backed to make a winning return to action that day but didn’t get a clear run on the rails when making his effort. Once in the clear he was finishing best of all and might well have won with a better run. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.
Verdict: Flavius Titus could have more to offer over sprint distances this season. Victory Angel who was 4th in this race has his first start for Robert Cowell and is weighted to beat last years winner Gifted Master.
Selections: Flavius Titus – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral and Victory Angel – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas – Four of the last eleven winners of the 1,000 Guineas have been sent off between 16/1 & 66/1 so a big priced winner can often pop up as it did last year.
Qabala, trained by Roger Varian stormed home to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the track. You must go back to 2006 to find the last filly to do the Nell Gwyn/1000 Guineas Double but this daughter of Scat Daddy could well do it. The extra furlong of the first fillies’ classic can bring out further improvement and we know she handles the track and quick ground. She looks the pick of the British trained runners.
Leopardstown’s 1000 Guineas Trial was a triumph for the Shelia Lavery trained Lady Kaya. She takes her place here and isn’t without chance if she stays the mile. Third home in that race was Iridessa who won last years Fillies Mile over C&D. She will be fitter for today with that run under her belt and we know she will be better back at a mile.
Skitter Scatter, like Qabala, is a daughter of Scat Daddy, she won four times as a juvenile. She improved on her last three starts ending her season with a win the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh outstaying Lady Kaya to win by two lengths with Hermosa a further 1 ½ lengths back in third.
Aiden O’Brien has produced 3 winners from 24 runners 10 placed in the past 11-years of 1,000 Guineas. He saddles four this year. Just Wonderful, Fairyland, Hermosa & Fleeting. He doesn’t have the stranglehold over the race that he does over the colt’s classic, but his runners always need noting.
Just Wonderful is the shortest priced of his four runners and the choice of Ryan Moore. The mile should really suit the filly who showed a decent turn of foot to beat Dandhu in the Rockefel Stakes at the track last September. Disappointed when only 4th at the Breeders Cup but the rain softened ground didn’t suit her that day and she will be better back on a sound surface.
Fairyland, won four of her five starts last season including the 6f Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. She arguably has the best juvenile form on offer. The only doubt regarding her chance is the daughter of Kodiac’s ability to get the mile of the 1000 Guineas. There are mixed messages on pedigree, but Franke Dettori has been booked for the ride and I think she can go well. At said in my Monday Punt column that the 12/1 available about her was worth chancing despite doubts about her stamina for a mile and that remains the case.
Hermosa & Fleeting both have each way claims although maybe more Oak’s than Guineas contenders on pedigree. The latter won the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September. No problems with stamina for her but she will be suited by further and probably doesn’t have the class to win a race like this over a mile. Hermosa, a daughter of Galileo had seven starts as a juvenile winning two of them, including a Group 3 at Naas. Besides finishing third to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare she also was beaten just 1 ½ lengths into second by Iridessa in the fillies mile, a race she was sent off the 5/2 favourite for. Ended last season with a close second in the Group 1 Criterium International at Chantilly, against the colts. As a 2-year-old she always shaped like she would be better as a 3-year-old and her full sister did better at three winning Group 1’s at a mile and 1m 4f.
Verdict: In an open race I’m happy to chance Fairyland. Whilst stablemate Hermosa looks worth an each-way play at bigger odds.
Selections: Fairyland – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor and Hermosa – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (Paying 4 places 1/5 odds) – Bet365 are 25/1 paying 3 places)
Eyecatcher Running:
We have one recent eyecatcher running at Newmarket this afternoon.
Newmarket
4:10 – Electrical Storm – 8/11 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – The son of Dubawi can put his recent experience to good use and it will take a good newcomer to beat him. Not surprisingly he’s a very short priced favourite to do it.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John