Hi all,
The best of Tuesday’s racing looks to be this evening at Newbury and Salisbury. Newbury’s feature race is a Class 2 Mile handicap (5:45) and Salisbury’s has an interesting 6f conditions race (6.05). I have selections in both races.
Newbury
The going at Newbury is good, good to soft in places but it’s set to be dry so the ground is likely to tighten up a shade. A decent sized field of 12 have declared for this Class 2 handicap although the drying ground could see several non -runners before post time.
5:45 – BetVictor Proud Sponsors Of Newbury Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The market is likely to be headed by Troll Peninsula who we haven’t seen in action since impressing when winning at Kempton novice in March. He’s only one start on turf at Redcar (heavy) last autumn. Looks on a handy mark for his handicap debut but will he run if the ground quickens up?
Chance was progressive handicapper in 2020 and is having his first start since finishing down the field in Meydan in January. He went close on his seasonal reappearance last season so should be fit enough here.
King Ottokor has form on quick ground and has run well over C&D in the past. However, he’s another who’s best form has come when he gets his toe in. Easing down the weights though and is handicapped to win he gets his conditions.
Power Darkness posted a seasonal best when coming from behind to win at Newmarket last time. A strongly run race and quick ground are his optimum conditions and although he’s up 5lb in the weights but should remain competitive with the first time
Itkaann has improved with each of his three starts this season. The 4-year-old looked a bit unlucky in the run when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 7 at Nottingham two starts back and ran just as well when a close-up 4th of 12 at Thirsk last time. Ground will be fine and the first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition.
Bear Force One has yet to hit form on his two starts this season but he’s dropped down to his last winning mark. The 5-year-old is suited by a sound surface and has won here in the past. Not discounted with Ryan Moore (2-5 when combining with trainer Roger Teal) up for the first time.
Verdict: It’s been a long time since we have seen the progressive Troll Peninsula and he could be well ahead of his mark on handicap debut. However, at the prices I prefer a couple against him. Itkaann gets the first-time headgear and has been running like he can land a handicap off his present mark. Bear Force One is back down to his last winning mark and Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.
1pt win – Itkaann – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Bear Force One – 9/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1 @ Coral
Salisbury
6:05 – The sole older horse Roulston Scar is a now a non-runner. That just leaves just the five 3-year-olds to compete for this 6f sprint. There doesn’t seem to be much pace on so Mighty Gurkha could get a solo up front.
Albasheer is having his first run since finishing 6th of 14 in last year’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. A quick ground winner at Doncaster on his juvenile debut he also ran Chindit to a length in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at the same venue. Belated seasonal return but remains capable of better if he’s trained on.
St Lawrence hasn’t been seen since disappointing in the Group 3 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock in May but he’s better judged on his 1 ¼ length second to Rohaan in a Group 3 at Ascot in April.
Jumby bounced back to form when 3rd to the well handicapped Great Ambassador in a Newmarket handicap 10-days ago. Capable of going close here but can’t afford to be as slowly away as he was last time.
Arguably the most interesting runner is Prop Forward. The 3-year-old built on the promise of his C&D racecourse debut when easily winning a Bath maiden (good to firm) 20-days ago. He looks a nice prospect and although he’s thrown in the deep end here, he’s got scope for further improvement.
Verdict: You can’t discount any of the five runners. Former useful juvenile Mighty Gurkha hasn’t really hit form this season but could get the race run to suit. Prop Forward is the least experienced of these and the outsider but he’s open to more improvement.
1pt win – Prop Forward – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John