Hi all,
Day 2 of the Ebor Festival and Its Ladies Day both on and off the track with four of the seven races open to fillies only. The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (3:35) is the headline race with Oaks heroine Snowfall a hot favourite to enhance her claims for the Arc. A seven-race card gets with Group 2 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (3:00) for 2-year-old fillies.
Like yesterday I ‘ve had a look at all seven races on the card and have selections in three of them.
York Ebor Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 6f
The unbeaten Sandrine will be a popular choice. A winner of the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and a Group 2 at Newmarket on her last two starts. She has a 3lb penalty to carry for that latter success but is the one to beat on known form.
Desert Dreamer has 1 ¾ lengths to find with Sandrine on their running at Newmarket but does get 3lb which helps. However, you have to think that her old rival has more scope for improvement and can give the weight away.
Zain Claudette showed herself to be a smart filly when beating Desert Dreamer by a nose when successful in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last time. There should be more to come from her but she will need to progress to beat the favourite.
Illustrating a winner at Catterick on her racecourse found things happening to quickly when only 7th of 21 in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, she returned to winning ways when showing a good turn of foot to win at Goodwood (soft) 22-days ago. The step up to 6f should suit her on breeding.
Of the rest Outside World made all to win over C&D last month. The dam won a Group 1 over a mile so she’s bred to be smart. This is a big step up in class for the Mark Johnston horse but she can’t be easily dismissed with Dettori up for the first time.
Verdict: Sandrine will be tough to beat but Zain Claudette is a big danger and don’t be surprised to see Outside World run a big race.
2:25 – Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 6f
System is the form pick on her win over Desert Dreamer in a Newmarket Listed race in July.
Smullen is a four-race maiden but the Kevin Ryan trained gelding put in a career best effort when a 2 ½ length 6th off 22 behind the useful Sacred Bridge in Naas Sales race last time. A reproduction of that run would give him each way claims here.
Korker, a Carlisle winner in May, found the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot to hot a race but bounced back to winning ways in calmer waters at Thirsk 27-days ago. First try at 6f, should say, and is a contender.
Atomic Lady a winner at Ripon created a good impression when winning a nursery handicap over C&D two starts back. Not as good back at 5f at Musselburgh last time. However, she was drawn on the unfavored far side that day and a better run can be expected from the filly here.
Wings Of War built on the promise of his Leicester racecourse debut when making all to win at Nottingham last month. Well suited to quick ground and the son of Dark Angel is open to more progress.
Verdict: The pace held up at York on the straight course yesterday and paid to drawn in lower half of the draw. Atomic Lady wasn’t seen to best effect at Musselburgh last time and better is expected from the previous C&D winner from stall 12. Smullen looks the pick of the Kevin Ryan runners after his run in the big sales race at Naas last time and stall 11 should be fine.
1pt each way – Atomic Lady – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Smullen – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
The first of the card’s three handicaps and most of my fancies seem to be among the higher drawn horses.
Astro King a ¾ length 3rd of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup before beating all but the exciting Real World when 2nd of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Was found to be lame when disappointing here in the John Smith’s Cup (1m 2f) when last seen in action. The return to a strongly run mile looks a plus for the 4-year-old who could go off favourite.
La Trinidad has improved with each of his four starts this season and has won his last two starts here, including over the mile last month. He’s up 6lb for that success but he’s well suited to the tempo of a big field handicap, is going the right way and goes well on a sound surface.
David O’Meara saddled the winner of this 2013 & 2016 and has a couple of solid contenders in Escobar & Orbaan who have both won over C&D in the past. Orbaan last win came over C&D last July. He got a typical Jamie Spencer hold up ride when 6th of 18 in the Summer Mile at Goodwood last time. Didn’t get the best of runs 2f out but still best of the hold up horses. Will need luck in the run but should go well. Escobar finished third in the Summer Mile. He’s well suited to big field handicaps and like Orbaan shouldn’t be far away if he gets luck in the run.
Magical Morning was a decisive winner at Sandown two starts bac. Looked like he would be involved at the finish 2f out in the Summer Mile but weakened quickly a furlong out. Ran like something was amiss rather than the good to soft ground which produced his tame effort.
Ametist won over 7f at Newmarket (good to firm) two starts back. Below that form back at the same venue in the Bunbury Cup. Looks like he needs a mile now and is capable of better than he showed last time.
Fame And Acclaim finished runner-up in two big field mile handicaps at the Curragh in the spring when with Joseph O’Brien. Finished 2 ½ lengths behind La Trinidad over C&D two starts back and ran to the same level at Newmarket 12-days ago. Hollie Doyle 1-1 for the yard is in the saddle.
Fox Champion is hard to win with but has run well on a couple of occasions this season to think he won’t be far away off his present mark. Close up 3rd behind Ametist at Newmarket, gets 3lb from that one today, and will appreciate being on a sound surface.
Gifted Ruler shaped like he was worth a try over mile when 2nd of 11 to Baashir at Doncaster last month. He gets 5lb from the winner for a 1 ½ length beating. On a competitive mark and could get into the places if handling the track. Baashir won here over 7f so we know he goes well at the course and goes well on fast ground
Verdict: If the cards fall right bothEscobar and Orbaan can win this. The step up to a mile will suit Ametist although he’s drawn out wide in stall 19. La Trinidad goes well at the track and bids for a York hat trick. He’s going the right way but stall 20 could be better. The return to a mile will suit Fame And Acclaim but some ease in the ground might be needed for him to win this. Gifted Ruler looks to have a handy draw in stall 6 and looks worth a try at a mile. Another with a low draw is previous course winner Baashir.
1pt win – La Trinidad – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Baashir – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Epsom & Irish Oaks winner Snowfall will be odds on to win this as he bids to enhance her Arc claims. No issues with the track for the daughter of Deep Impact either as she won the Musidora here on her seasonal return. Snowfall’s chance is even stronger in the likely event that her main market rival Wonderful Tonight doesn’t run due to quick ground.
Wonderful Tonight only has 3lb to find with the favourite on official ratings and she will be suited by the return to 1m 4f after winning over further at Goodwood last time.
Of the rest. Loving Dream had Eshaada ¾ length back in second when winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot the last day. The quicker ground at Ascot suited the winner who should stay further than 1m 4f.
Eshaada, a winner over first two starts at Newbury, arguably comes out of the Ribblesdale with even more credit than the winner. She was keen in the early stages of the race, wasn’t as well positioned as the winner and had to make her effort wider. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again but Eshaada may have the more scope for improvement. Still both fillies have plenty to find with Snowfall on the figures.
Verdict: Snowfall will take the beating especially as there has to be doubt about the participation of her main rival Wonderful Tonight. Her main danger’s look to be Loving Dream and Eshaada with the latter capable of improving into second.
4:10 – OR8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Maglev looked useful when winning at Yarmouth on his second career start. Should really have won at Chester last time but managed to not get a run in a three-runner race. More to come from the colt and given how well the William Haggas horses he’s a strong contender.
Tropez Power awarded the race in the Stewards room at Newbury before finding soft ground not to his liking at Goodwood. The type to bounce back on better ground today.
Neptune Legend improved for the step into nursery company at Newbury last time. He’s up 6lb but should go well again. He’s only been raised 4lb for that success
Aswan was another to improve for the step into handicap when winning at Goodwood (good to soft) three weeks ago. He’s up 4lb for that success and should remain competitive.
Alflaila a winner on his racecourse debut at Salisbury, had subsequent Listed winner System back in second that day. Wasn’t at his best, trying to give 6lb to Maglev when 4th to that one at Yarmouth on his next start. Back to his best when runner-up to a subsequent Group 3 winner at Newmarket 20-days ago. Nursery debut and can improve for his first start at 7f.
Verdict: Better can be expected from Tropez Power on quicker ground. However, this looks between the two market leaders Maglev and Alflaila with a slight preference for the latter.
4:45 – British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Trainer Dermot Weld is the first port of call for this race. Since 2010 he’s run four fillies, two of them have won and one finished runner-up.
He and jockey Osin Murphy teamed up with Search For A Song to win this in 2019 and they do so again here with Amma Grace.
The 4-year-old won a Listed race at Leopardstown (soft) last October and prior to that had finished runner-up to Cayenne Pepper in Group 2 at the Curragh (good). She’s just had the two starts this season and wasn’t disgraced when returning from a three-month absence to finish a 5 ¾ length 4th of 10 to the smart Le Petite Coco in a Group 3 at Cork 12-days ago.
Portfolio has been a steady improver this season winning quick ground handicaps at Leicester and Newmarket. She finished a ¾ length 3rd of 9 behind Save A Forest on her first try in Listed company 19-days ago.
Abstinence, one of two Ralph Beckett trained fillies in the line up, seemed to put in an improved effort when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 7 in a Newmarket Listed race last month. That was he first start at 1m 4f and she seemed to stay it well enough. Given she’s only had four career starts the 3-year-old is open to more improvement.
Another open to improvement is the John & Thady Gosden trained Pennymoor. The daughter of Frankel showed improved form to get off the mark at the third attempt when easily winning a Kempton novice 15-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f suited the 3-year-old whose dam won a German Oaks. This is a big step-up class but she’s got scope for plenty of improvement.
Verdict: It will be interesting to see if Pennymoor can improve for the return to turf after her impressive Kempton win last time. Amma Grace comes into the race with the best form and bids for a third win in the race for trainer Dermot Weld.
5:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Spirit Of Bermuda bids for the hat trickafter wins at Leicester & Newmarket. Up a further 3lb but another big run can be expected from the William Haggas trained 4-year-old.
The Gosden’s have a couple of live contenders in Star Of Emaraaty and Sweet Enough. The first named was highly tried in the Nell Gwyn and 1,000 Guineas on her first two starts after joining the yard. Bounced back from a poor run, drawn on the wrong side and on heavy ground, in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, when 1 ¼ lengths behind Spirit Of Bermuda at Newmarket. Sweet Enough bids for the hat trick after wins at Newmarket and on her handicap debut at Yarmouth last time. Likely capable of better having only had five career starts,
Arabian Romance has won two of her three starts this season, both on good to firm going. Last time she put in a career best on RPR’s when digging deep to get up in the final strides at Leicester 29-days ago. Up 6lb but she’s going the right way and is at the right end of the handicap.
Improvised has improved with each of her four starts and bids for the four timer here. Won on her handicap debut at Epsom last time despite racing wide coming into Tattenham Corner and making her effort out widest of all in the straight. This more conventional should suit her better and she’s only up 4lb for her Epsom win. Only 8-2 to carry, Silvestre De Sousa takes over in the saddle and the 3-year-old looks ahead of the handicapper.
Verdict: Three-year-olds have won 70% of races since 2010 but that is from 54% of the total runners. Which means the 4-year-old’s can be totally discounted. Two of the leading fancies Spirit Of Bermuda and Arabian Romance are from that age group. Both Star Of Emaraaty and Sweet Enough look to be improving 3-year-old’s, as is the David O’Meara trained Improvised who still looks ahead of the handicapper.
1pt win – Arabian Romance – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Improvised – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John