Hi all,
York’s Ebor Festival is here and all the action on the Knavesmire gets underway with the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (1:50). Each day will see seven races and all have them have at least £70,000 in guaranteed prize money. Expect big fields and competitive racing over the next four days.
Unlike 12 months ago when there were no paying spectators in attendance the racecourse is expecting over 80,000 people through the gates over the four days. And I’m going to be there on Friday for Nunthorpe Day.
The feature race of day one is of course the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes (3.35). Recent winners of the race include Sea The Stars, Frankel and Roaring Lion. There’s £567,100 on offer to this year’s winner of what looks an interesting renewal. There’s a good supporting with four big field handicaps.
The going is being described as good at York but I wonder if it will ride on the easy side of good. It doesn’t look like any rain is being forecast for the Wednesday or Thursday. Although there could be some light rain on Friday and Saturday.
I have previewed all seven races but I’m concentrating my bets on the handicaps.
1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f
The field contains plenty of experienced handicappers like Lahore and Major Jumbo.
Lahore won here over 5f last season, off 4lb higher and was only beaten 2 ¼ length when 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup. He’s yet to fire in three starts this season, including here last time. However, he’s nicely treated when he does bounce back to form and a strongly run race suits him well.
Major Jumbo set too strong pace on the far side in the Stewards Cup and was never going to last home. He’s losing run goes back almost 2-years but there have been enough signs this season to think the 7-year-old can take advantage of tempting handicap mark before too long. He’s run some of his best races at York in the past and has won twice over 6f.
Live In The Moment is 2-2 at the course with one of those wins coming at last year’s festival. He continued in winning form later in the year winning at Newmarket & Chelmsford. The 4-year-old showed he remains in good form when returning from a 11-month absence to finish a ¾ length 3rd of 9 at Chelmsford 15-days ago. That run should have put him spot fitness wise for this.
Hurricane Ivor looked like he could land a valuable sprint handicap when a short head 2nd of 18 at Ascot two starts back. He didn’t build on that promise when only a disappointing 15th in the Stewards Cup last time. That race is best forgotten as the 4-year-old probably didn’t like the very testing ground and may not have handled the undulations at Goodwood.
Twilight Falls is one of several 3-year-old’s who get into the race. He beat King Of Stars at Newmarket. He couldn’t follow up, off 8lb higher at Goodwood last time when a 2-length 4th of 13 behind the Whenthedealinsdone. However, he didn’t get the best of starts that day and had to wait for a gap 2 f out. It was also good to soft at Goodwood and the colt has never been out of the first two on good or quicker ground. He’s just had the seven starts and remains capable of better.
Whenthedealinsdone won with a bit in hand at Goodwood. He’s been raised 6lb for that success but is lightly raced enough to think he’s open to further progress. William Buick 2-2 on the gelding keeps the ride and today’s extended 5f trip could be ideal for the 3-year-old.
Verdict: A tough opener that’s for sure. Live In the Moment was an improving handicapper last season and go close. Hurricane Ivor is better than he was able to show at Goodwood last time and won’t be far away. Whenthedealinsdone and Twilight Falls are progressive 3-year-olds and the latter will prefer a sounder surface. However, of it’s on the easy side it will favour the former. Major Jumbo has excellent York form and is nicely handicapped on his best form.
1pt win – Live In The Moment – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Whenthedealinsdone – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Just the five juveniles are set to go to post for this year’s race but on paper it looks competitive enough with just 8lb separating the five on RPR’s.
The Charlie Appleby trained Noble Truth looked a useful prospect when beating Ehraz by 2 lengths at Newmarket last month and looks sure to go well here. This only the second runner the trainer has had in the race.
Ehraz was making his recourse debut behind the Appleby colt and has since boasted that form by winning an Ascot maiden.
Dubawi Legend was well backed to make a winning racecourse debut at Doncaster last month. He duly obliged for favourite backers producing an excellent turn of foot to put five lengths between himself and his 11 rivals. He looks a smart prospect.
Royal Patronage is the most experienced of the five runners, having had three starts, but he’s improving with each start and made all to win at Epsom last time. Looks the likely pace angle. Trainer Mark Johnson saddled last year’s winner.
Imperial Fighter made a winning racecourse debut at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. He’s related to plenty of winners and open to more progress. Trainer Andrew Balding is having a tremendous season with his juveniles with 23 winners from 96 runners 24% + 57.72 and he’s 6 winners from 13 runners 46% +35.25 8 placed 62% with his juveniles in Group & Listed contests.
Verdict: Noble Truth. Ehraz and Dubawi Legend look useful prospects. However,there doesn’t seem likely to be much pace in the race so Royal Patronage could get a solo out in front. Andrew Balding’s juvenile record this season means Imperial Fighter can’t be discounted either.
3:00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Eight stand their ground for a race that can be a launch pad for St Leger bid. However, the ante post favourite Kemari won’t be running in the final colt’s classic as he’s a gelding.
Kemari had no problem with the step into Group company last time when winning the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. Stays 1m 6f but doesn’t lack pace for today’s drop back to 1m 4f.
Aidan O’Brien saddles three High Definition, Sir Lucan and The Mediterranean. The latter could be used as pacemaker with both High Definition, Sir Lucan likely to be suited by a truly run race.
High Definition remains the most interesting of the trio. Unbeaten on his two juvenile starts. He made and promising seasonal reappearance when a 2 length third to Hurricane Lane here in the Dante in May. However, he didn’t give his running well behind that one in the Irish Derby last time. He surely remains capable of better.
Sir Lucan comes into the race the most progressive of the three Ballydoyle runners having returned from a 11-week absence to finish a ½ length 2nd of 8 in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. York’s longer straight should suit the son of Camelot. The first time cheekpieces are applied today and a good run will enhance his St Leger claims.
Third Realm, trained by Roger Varian, bounced back from a below par run in the Epsom Derby when 1 3/4 lengths behind Sir Lucan in the Gordon Stakes but I don’t see why he should finish ahead of the O’Brien colt here.
Youth Spirit was a further ¼ length behind in 4th in the Goodwood race. He was, however, giving Sir Lucan & Third Realm 3lb that day so isn’t out of this.
Verdict: High Definition needs to get his career back on track after a disappointing run in the Irish Derby. However, he does remain a colt with real potential. Stablemate Sir Lucan looks a St Leger contender and has less questions to answer after a good run at Goodwood last time.
3:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f
With St Mark’s Basilica being a non-runner due to a setback stablemate and last year’s Yorkshire Oaks heroine Love has been diverted to the race. The quick ground should suit the filly and given the lack of pace Ryan Moore seems likely to get an uncontested lead.
Mishriff runner-up to Adayar in the King George at Ascot. He finished 1 ½ length in front of Love at that day and the drop back to an extended 1m 2f is a positive for the 4-year-old as is the quick ground. I didn’t think we saw the best of Love that day though and I don’t think there will be much between the pair this afternoon.
Alcohol Free winner of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood races beyond a mile for the first time. On pedigree there must be a big doubt about her stamina for today’s distance. However, it’s good to see that connections have decided to roll the dice and come for the race.
Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Mac Swiney has failed to stay 1m 4f in both the Derby & Irish version on his last two starts. This trip could be ideal for the colt but you would think he would prefer softer ground.
I really like the claims of Mohaafeth. The 3-year-old wasn’t suited by the muddling gallop in a Group 2 over C&D last time. He wasn’t well placed when the race began in earnest two furlongs out. However, he showed a good change of gear to get his head briefly in front inside the final furlong before that big move took its toll in the final 100 yds.
Verdict: Love looks set to get a solo out in front so Ryan Moore should be able to dictate the tempo of the race. Mishriff is a solid contender and probably should be favourite. Of the 3-year-old’s Alcohol Free surely won’t stay. This could prove to be Mac Swiney’s optimum trip but the quick ground is be a bit of a concern. No ground concerns for Mohaafeth but the lack of pace could be.
1pt win – Mac Swiney – 18/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Get Shirty won a Listed race in France last August. He’s competitively weighted on the best of his French form on his first start for David O’Meara. It will be interesting to see if he comes in for market support.
Heading the ante post betting is Irish raider Arcadian Sunrise who has won his last two starts including valuable handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival 19-days ago. The 7-year-old has only had four starts on the flat winning once and was sent off the 7/4 favourite when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 14 for a 2m handicap at the Curragh in June. Keen that day he has the ideal jockey in Jamie Spencer to get him settled. Looks well handicapped based on his improved hurdles form.
Rajinsky was a ¾ length 2nd of 17 in this race last year and is 1lb lower this time around. Normally a consistent handicapper he put in a lesser performance at Goodwood last time over 2m 4f but will be suited by the drop back 2m here.
Island Brave was doing his best work at the finish in the 2m handicap at the Shergar Cup last time. The drying ground is a plus for the 7-year-old and trainer Heather Main has booked Osin Murphy for the ride.
Good ground is essential for Bodyline. A progressive staying handicapper last season he made a belated seasonal reappearance when a ½ length 2nd of 7 at Musselburgh 12-days ago. Relatively lightly raced. He’s up 3lb and is having his first start beyond 1m 6f but if he stays, he shouldn’t be far away at the finish.
1pt win – Bodyline – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Arcadian Sunrise – 5/1 @ Bet365
Verdict: Rajinsky was runner-up in this 12 months ago and won’t be winning out of turn. Quick ground suits Island Brave and Osin Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking. Bodyline is another suited by quick ground and should be in the mix. Arcadian Sunrise looks well handicapped if he can transfer his improved hurdle form to the flat. Get Shirty is an interesting newcomer for David O’Meara.
4:45 – IRE Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Tenaya Canyon was suited by the strong pace when coming from behind to win at Doncaster 13-days ago. She’s up 5lb for her Doncaster win but the 3-year-old is a sprinter in form and going the right way.
Atiyah is another handicap sprinter who looks on the up. She comfortably saw off 7 rivals when winning at Wolverhampton in June. The 3-year-old has been hiked up 11lb for that all-weather success but she must be respected back on quick turf.
Not On Your Nellie a three-time winner put in a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2nd of 6 at Redcar 13-days ago. Quick ground suits the 4-year-old and the forecast strong pace is also a positive. Stablemate Princess Power is more exposed but she’s been shaping like she’s about to hit winning form. A shade disappointing when only a 3rd of 6 at Thirsk last Friday but her normal visor is replaced by the first time cheekpieces here. The stronger the gallop the better her chance and she did post her best RPR when 4th over C&D at the 2019 Ebor Festival.
Ey Up It’s Maggie has run well on all three of her starts at the course and posted a career best when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 17 here over 6f two starts back. The 3-year-old wasn’t seen to best effect when only 3rd of 5 at Chester last time and is better judged on her York run.
Verdict: Tenaya Canyon is an inform filly and will popular after her recent Doncaster success. Nigel Tinkler has two live contenders in Not On Your Nellie and Princess Power who gets a change of headgear and is likely to get the strong pace she needs for the first time this season. Ey Up It’s Maggie goes well here and must be respected.
1pt win – Princess Power – 10/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
If you haven’t had a winner by the last race. All I can say is good luck because this nursery has attracted a maximum field of 22 runners.
There looks to be plenty of early speed here but the pace has tended to hold up in races on the straight course so far this season.
Bosh is the form pick on his recent ½ length 2nd of 22 to the useful Sacred Bridge in a valuable Sales race at Naas. Prior to that he had won at Newmarket and over C&D. Big player on his nursery debut and has entries in the top autumn juvenile races.
Aristobulus bounced back from a poor run at Redcar to win in good style on his nursery debut at Nottingham (good to soft) last week. It looked a good performance and although he has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success he’s unexposed and at the right end of the handicap.
Papa Cocktail built on the promise of his racecourse debut when winning at Haydock (good to firm) over 7f two starts back. Not disgraced. albeit well beaten, when stepped up in class for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes last time. Better judged on the promise of his Haydock win.
Instinctive Move impressed in winning on his racecourse debut at Bath but was very disappointing when stepped up to Listed company at Sandown last time. However, it was good to soft there and a return to better ground should suit.
Wonderful World returned from 4-month absence to win at Brighton 12-days ago. Opening handicap mark of 82 doesn’t look lenient but he’s open to further improvement and could get into the places.
Lady Lade bids for the hat trick after wins at Carlisle and Hamilton. Another open further progress on her handicap debut.
Jadhlaan won a 5f novice here in June and was a solid 2nd of 13 on his nursery debut at Goodwood last time. Likely to be in the mix but vulnerable to better handicapped juveniles.
Sisters In The Sky finished behind the more experienced Bosh at Newbury before going onto win a soft ground maiden at Goodwood 22-days ago. Looks the type to do well in nurseries and mark of 81 looks workable for his handicap debut. Each way claims if as effective on today’s quicker ground.
Verdict: There looks to be plenty pace among the higher drawn runners. Bosh is the form pick and right favourite but there are plenty of potentially unexposed juveniles in the field. Non more so than Aristobulus who was an impressive winner at Nottingham 8-days ago. Sisters In The Sky won’t be far away if he handles today’s quicker surface. Wonderful World looked good when winning at Brighton and could get into the money from stall 16.
1pt win – Aristobulus – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Wonderful World – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John